Xi Jinping meets Trump: who holds the cards?

Today in Focus

This episode explores the high-stakes diplomatic dynamics between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump ahead of their meeting in Washington. Former C

Key takeaways

• Xi Jinping operates with a 'jack-s-the-box' strategy, waiting years for the opportune moment to act.
• Trump's unpredictability during his first term provided the U.S. with significant leverage during trade negotiations.

Main topics

• Trump-Xi personality clash
• Taiwan semiconductor and arms sales

Notable quotes

I think it's much better to think of Xi Jinping as operating like a jack-in-the-box.

Conclusion

The success of the summit will likely be measured by the avoidance of

Transcript preview

Speaker 4 (0:00) This is The Guardian. Speaker 2 (0:07) Today, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. What to expect when the odd couple meet in Washington? Speaker 3 (0:19) When we think about Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, there's a real mismatch between the two men. Speaker 3 (0:27) President Trump thinks of himself as the consummate dealmaker, right? That is a core part of his political persona. But that is not a core part of Xi Jinping's political persona. And that's not crucial to how he operates. I think it's much better to think of Xi Jinping as operating like a jack-in-the-box. This guy winds up for years, sometimes for decades, and he's just waiting for the right moment to pop. Speaker 2 (0:49) You know when world leaders ring each other up for a chat? It's never just them on the line. Eavesdropping silently on another extension, just out of sight, there is always someone like John Zinn listening in. Speaker 3 (1:02) Yes, that was a big part of my day job, right, was kind of using the expertise that I had built up over time to help manage and conduct our diplomacy with China. Speaker 2 (1:14) John was the director for China on Joe Biden's National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, having honed his expertise as the CIA's in-house expert on Xi Jinping. Speaker 3 (1:25) I was there in November 2022 when Xi and Biden met in person for the first time at the G20 in Bali. Speaker 3 (1:39) And then before that, you'll remember we were in the midst of COVID. So the first face-to-face encounter that Biden and Xi had of the Biden presidency was actually a, you know, it was a presidential Zoom, not unlike this one. Good Speaker 1 (1:51) to see you, Mr. President, and your colleagues. It's the first time for us to meet virtually. Although it's not as good as a face-to-face meeting, Speaker 4 (2:00) I'm very happy to see my old friend. Speaker 3 (2:03) I think the best approach when you're dealing with a guy like Xi is to play it cool. You want to look like you're also focused on business and that you're taking this very seriously and you're not going to give anything away for free. John Speaker 2 (2:19) dealt with a lot during his two years working for the White House. But as Donald Trump prepares to welcome Xi Jinping to Washington today, the stakes are arguably even higher. Trump has started a war he can't seem to stop and the Chinese are helping his enemy. Speaker 4 (2:38) Stunning new reporting that China may have aided in Iran's attack that killed three U.S. troops earlier this summer. Speaker 2 (2:45) There's the small matter that Xi still has his eye on invading Taiwan. Speaker 4 (2:49) Taiwan is engaged in 10 days of war games preparing the country for a potential invasion. Speaker 2 (2:55) Oh, and the worry that AI may destroy humanity. Speaker 4 (2:58) This is a danger that's so great. We've got to do something together with them to reduce, at least reduce, hopefully eliminate. the scale of the potential destruction. Speaker 2 (3:11) From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus, what are Trump and Xi going to talk about in Washington? And what does it mean for the rest of us? Speaker 2 (3:26) John Zinn, welcome to Today in Focus. Thanks Speaker 3 (3:28) so much for having me. I'm delighted to be here. Speaker 2 (3:30) So you're a longtime China analyst. Can you just start by telling me, when did you get so interested in China and the guy who's been running it for the past 13 years? Speaker 3 (3:39) Yeah, I got interested in foreign policy writ large because 9-11 actually happened a week into my freshman year of college. And I had grown up in New Jersey with a view of the Manhattan skyline from my bedroom growing up. Obviously, when that happened, that was a huge moment for me. And I ended up realizing very quickly after 9-11 that as a skinny, nerdy kid, I was probably not going to end up in the Special Forces or in the U.S. Marine Corps. But I saw an advertisement in Foreign Affairs to be a CIA analyst. I thought that is something I could do, right? I could be a professional nerd for my government. And I ended up starting at the agency just after Xi Jinping became China's heir apparent. I realized this was just going to be the most fascinating issue. And I have not been proven wrong. Speaker 2 (4:29) And I think when Biden was president, you were the sort of chief Xi whisperer. Is that right? You were deciphering all of his movements, his pronouncements, his silences, and what that actually meant for American diplomacy. And you've even been in the same room during some of these presidential meetings. So what's he like then? Because he's a mystery to most of us and maybe even to the Chinese people. He doesn't give that much away. What's he like? Speaker 3 (4:52) He does not. I mean, you know, it's interesting because I think there is a tendency to describe him that way. But this guy has been such a big player on the international scene for such a long time. It kind of takes some patience to really get to know him. But I feel like we actually do have a good sense of the guy. And I think what's striking about seeing him in person in particular was that. You know, it kind of reinforced, you know, rather than upset my prior conceptions of him. When I saw him in person, it was right after the party congress where he had really secured his dominance over China's leadership. This was a guy who was large and in charge and very much in his prime as an authoritarian leader in that moment. Right. And I think he was feeling that sense of confidence. And so his whole cadence, and I think this is true across the interactions I've seen from him. It's very much almost how he appears on Chinese television. He speaks in this kind of slow, methodical, mellifluous baritone. Speaker 2 (5:51) I Speaker 3 (5:52) think he speaks with that very deliberate cadence because especially at this point in his tenure, he knows that everybody, including senior U.S. officials, are going to be hanging on his word and interpreting it and listening very closely. to what it is he has to say. Speaker 1 (6:12) I Speaker 2 (6:12) mean, the man you describe, calm, methodical, careful, it sounds like the exact opposite of Donald Trump, who, of course, he is meeting. How have these two different characters, two most powerful men in the world, handled each other in the past? Because they've already met once this year, haven't they, back in May, when Trump went for a state visit to China? Speaker 3 (6:32) I mean, one could not conjure an odder couple than these two men, right? Speaker 2 (6:38) Yeah. Speaker 3 (6:39) I would say the mismatch between the two of them, it's really evolved over time. And I would say very much in Trump's first term, she did not know what to do with this guy. Because in Xi's own political system, in China's political system, the kind of freewheeling, charismatic style that is essential to Trump and his political brand is not only alien, it is crushed in that political system. And so when you think about Xi Jinping, you know, the Trump administration likes to use this poker metaphor for describing the relationship. Xi is very much the kind of poker player who places cards close. He's looking both at the cards he actually has and reading the other players very subtly and very cautiously and not giving much away. And Trump is just the opposite, right? He's like the guy at a casino who's on a hot streak. And I think that was very much true in his first term. Nobody was more surprised, it seems like, about Trump's victory than Trump himself. And so he just didn't know how to handle this. Because Speaker 4 (7:37) we can't continue to allow China to rape our country. And that's what they're doing.