CutTheClutter: Message behind pomp & pageantry at Trump-Xi summit, & what US-China G2 would mean for India, & world

ThePrint

The episode analyzes the recent summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington. While the meeting lack

Key takeaways

• The US-China trade war truce has been officially extended to January 10, 2027.
• Xi Jinping invoked the Thucydides Trap to warn against the dangers of a rising power threatening a dominant one.

Main topics

• Trump-Xi Summit Analysis
• US-China Trade Truce Extension

Notable quotes

The era of G2 is now in.

Conclusion

The summit serves as a strategic pause, allowing both superpowers to b

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:02) The much-awaited Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit has taken place in Washington and as was widely anticipated, this has not yielded a big news-making headline. The biggest headline being that they met. They met, they did not fight. No side came out expressing their disagreements or differences with the other side. But importantly, in spite of all the pomp and pageantry, which actually was quite significant, there was no joint declaration, which is again significant. That's how also two big powers meet because when they meet, they are not exactly aiming for a declaration right away. These are ongoing conversations. So some of the things that were said, all of those, the Chinese readout is there, the American readout, as I record this, has not yet come out, but I don't believe it will be substantially different, maybe in language a little bit nuanced here and there, but I don't even imagine any major nuance. If one comes up, we'll let you know in the course of time. Basically, the two sides decided to continue to manage their contradictions and differences and also looked at ways on how to manage their rivalry. There were no breakthroughs. There was no detente. There was no grand bargain. There wasn't even a talk of a grand bargain. Those things don't happen with one summit or two summits. This has followed, as you know, very quickly after Trump's sort of sudden visit to Beijing in May. That is when he announced. The arrival of G2, that is the big two power of the world now, America and China. China for a long time has been trying to catch up with America. So much so that repeatedly he did so in Beijing and he's done so this time also. Xi Jinping has invoked the Thucydides trap. Thucydides was the ancient Athenian philosopher and general who had a philosophical idea which Gramtie Allison, the Harvard... Professor later developed into a concept, the Thucydides Trap, that when one state starts rising, one power starts rising and its rise threatens the dominant one, the only dominant one, then war becomes inevitable. So once again, Xi Jinping has said that we should avoid the Thucydides Trap. So he's again indicated that America is the big power. China is rising. America is threatened by China. So while Trump might say G2, Xi Jinping is not saying that. Chinese are very clever. They never say we are number one, number two, number three, number four, five in the world. In fact, if you ask them formally, they will say we are a developing country. We are part of the global south. Staying on with that policy, hide your strength, bide your time as Deng Xiaoping advised. Xi Jinping is again saying that we should manage our competition and we should avoid falling into the Thucydides trap. Trump it is who said G2. However, this summit formally tells the world that G2 has arrived because Trump has given Xi Jinping the kind of reception he hasn't given anybody. And that's not just about going to the airport. First of all, letting him land in Andrews Air Force Base. Everybody coming into America doesn't do that. People go to... other airports, not everybody gets to land at Andrews Air Force Base and not everybody is received by the president. In fact, when I give you a little inventory, at least from what's available to me after a few rounds of search of presidents going to receive the foreign heads of state at airport, that will tell us a story and also give us an insight how the world's most preeminent power responds to the world. Once again, the theme now is just management. Just management. of a difficult relationship with many contradictions. And the message to the world, as I said just now, is that the era of G2 is now in. Substantively, there was an extension of the trade war truce. There was an existing truce expiring in November this year. This has been extended up to January 10, 2027, which is almost exactly two years before Trump. hangs up his boots and goes into retirement. Trump, in fact, said at the UN that I've got two and a half years no matter what happens at the midterms. Remember, I'm not running. Republican Party is running. I'm helping them. So my policies will not be affected. I'm just underlining to you a fact, incidentally, that January 10 is when almost exactly only two years of Trump's term will remain. Because remember, the President of America is sworn in on... January 20 or inaugurated on January 20 every four years. Now, all the other principal strategic disputes, whether these be in Indian Ocean, South China Sea, Taiwan, etc., all of these remain. But Trump, by extending the kind of protocol that he has done to Xi Jinping, has let him know that he is a very special leader. This is not something that Trump has done for any leader. And remember, for Xi Jinping, It's only his second visit to the US in a decade. Even the previous one, more than nine years ago, was during the Trump presidency. And that's when he had gone to Mar-a-Lago as well. So I think there is something there. Trump himself sees himself as a strongman leader. And he responds to another strongman leader differently from he might do with other leaders. At the reception, I will tell you about protocol and some symbolic moves. But importantly, look at the strengths that America has and China has. The rival strengths. America has a big market. China needs that trade surplus. Chinese trade surplus with America has come down. It had gone up to a trillion dollars. It's come down to about 700 billion. It goes up and down a little bit. China wants a trade surplus. So the fact that America imports so much from China. is America's strength. That's the market that China needs. Second, America has big capital. China wants investments. That is the part of that investment India wants also. That was the whole China plus one concept. Then America has high technology. America is very advanced in AI and other technologies. China, on the other hand, has critical minerals, rare earths and renewable energy equipment. EV energy equipment components essential for electric vehicles. And China is the world's biggest manufacturer of important machinery, without which much other industry elsewhere will come to a