From the pulpit to the political arena

The NPR Politics Podcast

The episode examines the tightening midterm election maps, highlighting Democratic gains in competitive House and Senate races driven by eco

Key takeaways

• Cook Political Report data shows over a dozen House seats trending toward Democrats, though redistricting limits overall wave potential.
• Six Senate races have shifted Democratic, making the chamber majority within reach despite starting from a defensive position.

Main topics

• Midterm election maps and polling trends
• Trump's impact on Republican midterm prospects

Notable quotes

"It's not that far off from the sort of lows of Obama and Biden who are in the kind of low 40s when it comes to pre-midterm approval ratings."

Conclusion

The episode provides a data-driven look at the narrowing midterm lands

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:01) This election season, you can streamline your news intake with Up First. Our team of reporters and editors works overnight, so you can start every morning with three stories you need to know. In short episodes, 12-14 minutes long, to save you time and your sanity. Follow Up First on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 6 (0:22) The midterm map is starting to take shape. Concerns about AI are impacting how people vote. And some Democratic candidates running in Republican states are emphasizing their ties to religion in interesting ways. We'll get into all of it and more in our weekly roundup. Speaker 6 (0:40) It's the NBR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. Speaker 1 (0:43) I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Speaker 6 (0:48) And a big welcome back to Domenico, who was away for a couple of months. It's really nice to have you back. Speaker 1 (0:53) Thank you. Yeah. Welcome back. Parental leave. So it's been a nice time away. Now Speaker 6 (0:58) that you might be getting just a little bit more sleep, we're going to jump right into how the midterm map is shaping up. And I want to start with the state of play here. I mean, if we're looking at an election held today in the House, how is this looking for Democrats right now? Speaker 1 (1:12) Well, if you're just looking in raw terms when it comes to the House itself, the nice thing about being away for a few months is that it's given me a bit of a bigger picture sort of view as I sort of try to take in the landscape. And not a whole lot has changed in the House. I mean, there are certainly things have tipped more in Democrats' direction. You see, you know, a handful of seats move from solid into the likely category, according to the Cook Political Report, some from likely to lean, lean to toss up, all in Democrats' direction. direction. You know, you're seeing a dozen or more seats doing that. But overall, the landscape hasn't tipped. a lot when it comes to the House. When you look at the Cook Political Report's projection, it's only about five to 15 seats right now that they see Democrats picking up. That certainly would be enough to put Democrats over the edge to win the House and pick it up. But it's looking like a narrow majority like we've seen with Republicans. Of course, unless things change, you know, over the next month within the Republican Party, you know, sort of not being able to stem the bleeding in many places, you know, then it could. wind up being a higher number. But still, you know, it's not looking like it will be an overwhelming wave. And there's a few reasons for that. Right. I mean, the fact is, Republicans have been able to insulate themselves when it comes to redistricting quite significantly. The Democratic Party is still very unpopular. And it's just not like 2018, where a lot of those districts were in more competitive places. The districts that are competitive right now are a lot of them in Trump won districts. Speaker 6 (2:44) Yeah. Well, let's switch to the other chamber where like redistricting is not a factor, the Senate. Are things consistent there or are we seeing some swings as we get closer? Yeah, Speaker 1 (2:54) the Senate has been a much bigger story as far as it moving more. I mean, Cook Political Report, when you analyze their data, six seats have now trended more in Democrats' favor, which is pretty significant considering only about a third of the Senate is up. Most of the seats are in the safe category. So when you have that many seats now tipping toward Democrats. You're looking remarkably at a cycle where Democrats started on the defensive. They didn't have much room to really grow. It looked like a long shot that they would take back the Senate. It's certainly within reach that Democrats could take the Senate majority. That's not to say that they're favored or that it will definitely happen. But a mix of candidates and the national environment has meant that Democrats do have a legitimate chance now of taking back the Senate. Speaker 6 (3:45) All right. So I want to take through the Senate map and I want to talk about some of these states that Democrats think might actually be in play this cycle. Domenico, why don't you walk us through that? Speaker 1 (3:56) There are multiple states that Democrats are targeting now. I mean, North Carolina, for example, is like the top one. I think that Democrats and most Republicans feel like is headed in Democrats direction. It's now lean Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report. Then you have states that are in this other category like Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa. Those are all toss-ups now in the Cook Political Report. And we think about a state like Kansas. It had been solid Republican for a very long time and is now lean Republican. It's really quite something that that's even on the map. And you think about places like Nebraska and South Carolina that nobody was talking about that are now kind of in the – periphery a little bit. You know, this is a really interesting thing because when you think about places like Georgia, which was a big Republican target at the beginning of the cycle, that's now moved to likely Democrat from lean Democrat. So that's almost off the table for Republicans. And then they have two other targets, Michigan and New Hampshire. Both are toss ups. And if Republicans can pick off one or both of those, it certainly makes the map harder for Democrats. But the map here, as we're talking about, has certainly widened fairly considerably for Democrats over the last few months. Speaker 6 (5:15) Franco, this is not great news for Republicans, I'm guessing. And it's looking, as we get closer to the election, bleaker for them. I'm guessing this is why we saw President Trump holding rallies in deep red Texas and Oklahoma. Speaker 4 (5:29) Yeah, I mean, certainly when it comes to Oklahoma, I was on the trip and felt like I was basically living through the scenario that Domenico is describing right now. And basically a very, very delicate dance that Republicans are trying to have with Trump. I mean, they want to keep some distance from him because Trump is not very popular right now in many circles. But they also can't distance themselves too much or risk turning off, you know, Trump's diehard base. I mean, Oklahoma, he's. He's telling them to pretend he's on the ballot, as he does in other places. And, you know, that's clearly a very big asset for MAGA voters. But it's also a very dangerous message when it comes to Republicans. And, of course, he did stop in Texas as well. And while it has been a very. you know, red stronghold. It is, you know, there are questions about that race right now. And he went there to support Ken Paxton, who the Republican candidate AG, who's running against James Telerico. And Trump, you know, praised Paxton. He said he traveled to Texas to help Paxton. But he didn't bring Paxton on the stage. There was no, you know, photo of the two together. And I think that does kind of speak to that dance that some Republicans are having. And, you know, The New York Times reported that Paxton even told donors that. Trump's midterm convention may have been a drag on some of the Republican support. Speaker 1 (6:59) Well, it's always been this double edged sword when it comes to Trump for the Republican Party. You know, when he's on the ballot, he certainly fires up the right and MAGA and he's able to bring out more conservatives, which Republicans need. Right. But when Trump is the face of everything, he also is toxic for the middle. And that means independents are very turned off by him. And increasingly, we're seeing in polling. And in some elections, Latinos, who are a key group and a swing group still. And, you know, it's not clear which direction they will go if they will actually show up, if they will stay home. But a lot of what Trump's policies have been, whether it's the economy and prices or these harsh immigration tactics, have certainly been something that Latinos have viewed overwhelmingly as a negative and not what they thought they were buying into when Trump won a record share of Latinos in the 2024 presidential election. So these are all warning signs for Republicans and especially those swing district Republicans who aren't sure exactly how to deal with Trump when it comes to Trump being the national face of everything. Speaker 4 (8:04) Yeah. At the same time, they can't totally like distance themselves from him because they need those MAGA voters. They need that support to to get them over the edge. And Trump is just as, you know, Domenico's pointing out, he's just so tied to the Republican Party. I mean, they're just connected so much at the hip. They can't entirely distance themselves. And, you know, MAGA voters are tied to Trump. They're very loyal to Trump. And if they think Trump's being dissed, they're going to respond. Here's Speaker 1 (8:32) the thing, though, that I do think we need to talk a little bit about. And that's the national environment that Trump has created, because midterms are largely a referendum on the president that's in office. And right now, when it comes to an average of the polls, you look at The New York Times aggregator, for example, Trump's approval rating is at. 37 percent. It's not that far off from the sort of lows of Obama and Biden who are in the kind of low 40s when it comes to pre-midterm approval ratings. But the only person who he's tied with in pre-midterm approval ratings is George W. Bush in 2006, just before the 2006 election when Iraq was spiraling into civil war. That's the same environment you've got