Iran, Ukraine and the limits of American power: geopolitical update part 1

The National Security Podcast

Marking its 300th episode, the National Security Podcast explores the strained strategic bandwidth of the United States amidst simultaneous conflicts

Key takeaways

• Dr. Charles Edel notes that US foreign policy is becoming increasingly contested and unpredictable due to domestic political shifts and election cycles.
• The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated a shift toward asymmetric warfare, utilizing low-cost drones to challenge much more expensive missile systems like the Patriot.

Main topics

• US strategic bandwidth and election impacts
• Evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine

Notable quotes

It's pointless to talk about deterrence as an abstract noun. You have to know who you're deterring, where you're deterring and what you're deterring.

Conclusion

The episode serves as a critical assessment of how interconnected glob

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:00) Before we begin this episode, I wanted to share with you what a milestone this is for the ANU National Security College. This is our 300th episode of the National Security Podcast, an initiative that we began in 2018 with the very straightforward intention of bringing some clarity to the complexity of the security issues and the geopolitical challenges facing Australia, Australians. our region, the Indo-Pacific, and indeed the world. We've had more than a million downloads of our podcasts over those eight years. And now as we reach our milestone 300th episode, it's time to take stock and reflect a little bit. We've brought scholarly rigor to many of our conversations, but at the same time, we've tried to always drill back to the core issues. So what? Why does this matter? What can we do? Community consultations in Australia this year have demonstrated that there are rising levels of concern. At the same time, there's a growing appetite for clear and effective communication from government and from experts. I take all of this as a vote of confidence in what the team have been doing here at the National Security College in bringing this program to you. I want to take this opportunity to thank... today's team, but also the ever-changing team of contributors to the podcast over the years. A former colleague, Chris Farnham, the originator of the National Security Podcast, put it very well when he launched that very first episode with me. From the largest strategic issues down to the nitty-gritty of tactics and of policy responses and of how ordinary people think about the challenges in the world today. This podcast has been bringing clarity to the complexity. I hope we continue on this journey. Thanks for staying with us. And now on with the episode. Speaker 7 (2:07) A war that President Trump started in Iran that we can't quite seem to figure out how to wind down before we even get to the region that is, on paper at least, the number one priority for the United States. Speaker 1 (2:22) With the development of AI and the development of drone warfare, we do see issues with regards to ethical elements of that. Civilians should not be targeted or civilians being differentiated from combatants in the field. Speaker 6 (2:36) It's pointless to talk about deterrence as an abstract noun. You have to know who you're deterring, where you're deterring and what you're deterring. Speaker 2 (2:44) You're listening to the National Security Podcast, the show that brings you expert analysis, insights and opinion on the national security challenges facing Australia and the Indo-Pacific. Produced by the ANU National Security College. Speaker 3 (3:00) All right, buckle up team, this is our 300th episode. I'm your host, Sharon Parker, and we're recording in Canberra on Ngunnawal and Ngambri country. Amid the storm that is current geopolitics, we hold out hope that peace will one day dominate war and negotiation will deliver calm. All the while, the pace of world events set by our world leaders feels compressed and volatile. The current geopolitical landscape feels more like a connected test rather than a series of separate crises. Does the United States have enough bandwidth to span these themes while China continues to make its strategic advances? It recently fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the Pacific, and later this month, Xi Jinping will head to Washington with both rare earths and Taiwan on the discussion table. There is a lot to unpack in this conversation, so we're planning on bringing it to you in two parts. To bring clarity from complexity, Dr. Charles Idel joins us. Our expert on statecraft and great power competition is from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Dilnoza Ube-Dulieva is a lecturer here at ANU National Security College. She is an expert on Central Asian dealings with a post-Soviet Russia. and the positioning of the Global South in world power. Finally, Dr Ewan Graham is a commentator and expert advisor to the National Security College, formerly of the British Foreign Office, whose publications and research span military strategy and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. There are many questions here, team. First of all, welcome to the National Security College in what is, I think, our biggest subject to date. Can I start with a lead question for you, Charles? The view from Washington is Iran stockpiles and perhaps a distracted superpower. How does that land with you and what do you think of it all? Speaker 7 (5:04) Well, thanks very much for having me on. You've done a terrific job of spanning. the world, although we just got to Iran and we haven't even discussed the fact that AI might be ending the world tomorrow, or I guess 10 years hence, if you believe the words of the pioneers of it. So right now, how does Iran sit? How does everything sit as it's emanating out of Washington? Let me just say that the mood in Washington is febrile. And getting a little wackier. And that's always true as you head into election season. And of course, America's always in election season. But we have the midterm U.S. elections coming up in November in the midst of not only a trade war, in the midst of attempting to broker or strong arm apparently Ukraine or Russia, and on top of a war that President Trump started in Iran. that we can't quite seem to figure out how to wind down before we even get to the region that is, on paper at least, the number one priority for the United States. So let me just note that, one, foreign policy and national security are always contested, but they're going to become more contested. over the period. The two different parties, no less those within the parties who are jockeying for ascendancy and to become their political leaders post-Trump and then within the Democratic Party, will be staking out a variety of positions now. So do not expect calmness or kind of straight through lines from the U.S. I would say, too, though, when we take a step back about what this actually means and where the U.S. is. bandwidth-wise. You mentioned two speeches, right? One by John Howard, one by Kevin Rudd. In the U.S., we don't even, you know, above speeches, we have formal documentation of national security strategy. But that's what's on paper as opposed to what happens in the real world. Speaker 3 (7:12) And Speaker 7 (7:12) what we've seen over the past year or two is that what was put down on paper is not what is actually U.S. foreign policy. And that's partially always true, but that's always, always going to be true under Donald Trump, who probably didn't take much of a read of his own national security documents and likes to have as much latitude leverage so he can zig and so he can zag as possible. But when