US-China Thaw and India's Leverage:

The Morning Brief

This episode examines the recent diplomatic engagements between Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, and Donald Trump to determine whether a substantive US-China tactical reset is underway. Pranab Dhal Samanta argues that Washington and Beijing are

Key takeaways

• Xi Jinping met separately with Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit and Donald Trump in a bilateral meeting within two weeks, signaling potential diplomatic thawing between major powers.
• Pranab Dhal Samanta characterizes the Washington-Beijing engagement as a tactical reset focused on avoiding direct confrontation while creating economic growth intervals for China.

Main topics

• US-China diplomatic reset
• India's strategic leverage

Notable quotes

What's under way is a game is afoot.

Conclusion

The episode provides a clear framework for understanding how shifting US-China dynamics

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:00) What's under way is a game is afoot. Just a short answer, the tactical reset, in my view, has been happening in Washington. This actually reminds me of a Sun Tzu playbook which says that, you know, subdue your enemy without actually fighting. At this point in time, India needs to create its own leverage. There we are lacking and that's what we need time for. So in that broader context, India has to manage China. Speaker 2 (0:27) Something unusual is happening around what has become one of the world's most consequential strategic triangles. Within two weeks, Xi Jinping has sat across the table from both Narendra Modi and Donald Trump. With India, Beijing is talking about stabilizing a relationship that has long been disrupted by border disputes and years of mistrust. With the US, China is testing whether confrontation can be contained. In other words, whether the world's two most powerful economies can compete with each other without necessarily colliding. Now, this doesn't lead to a grand reset immediately, but it does raise some critical questions for India. You see, for years, one of New Delhi's strategic advantages was straightforward. The more powerful and assertive China became, the closer Delhi got to Washington. But what happens if the US and China find a way to manage their rivalry? Does India become less important to America? In other words, is the geopolitical geometry around India actually shifting? To break this down, I have with me today, The Economic Times National Editor, Politics, Pranab Dhal Samanta. Speaker 1 (1:50) It's Friday, the 2nd of October. I'm Anirban Chaudhary. This Speaker 2 (1:54) is The Morning Brief. Speaker 2 (2:08) Hi Pranav, welcome to the podcast. Speaker 1 (2:10) Thank you Anirban. Thanks for having me over again with you. Speaker 2 (2:15) Absolutely. Pleasure, Pranab. Okay. Two weeks apart, Modi-Xi in the BRIC summit, Trump-Xi in the China-US summit. Are we looking at a tactical reset? Speaker 1 (2:29) Tactical reset over here would be actually more at the Washington end. I think India has its own reasons. India has been engaging China. That's not the issue. The point is that the Trump-Xi engagement, which has gone through lots of iterations, it's not delivered much substantively as far as Washington is concerned. but it's definitely the optics of the whole event and also the articulation of terms like G2, etc. are making countries wonder as to what does Washington have in mind, what does Donald Trump have in mind. As far as India is concerned, you know, this meeting happened in the ages of the BRICS and BRICS summits have been held regularly. Speaker 1 (3:24) There is very little bilateral summit level meetings which happen between Trump and Modi these days. BRICS is one forum where this happens. The other forum is SCO. So it allows you to, you know, engage bilaterally. And if you look at it, many of our border tensions do sort of pipe down before a BRICS meet. And we saw that with Doklam, we saw that even with the Galwan crisis and many others in the past. So it is a basic engagement which is needed. And I think that engagement is, BRICS allows that. But in the light of what Trump has been doing, it also conveys a message that, you know, there is a de-risking angle which has come in over the last... year or two