Big meet, little meat: the Trump-Xi summit

The Intelligence from The Economist

This episode of The Intelligence explores three distinct global narratives: the diplomatic nuances of the recent Trump-Xi summit, the rising influence of

Key takeaways

• The US-China trade truce has been extended for only two months, expiring this November.
• Chinese officials increasingly view the US-China relationship through the lens of 'strategic stalemate' rather than mere cooperation.

Main topics

• Trump-Xi Summit outcomes
• US-China trade war and AI competition

Notable quotes

The way that they actually describe it is as a relationship of strategic stalemate.

Conclusion

The episode offers a deep dive into how geopolitical, political, and c

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:03) The Economist. Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, how a British right-wing influencer is influencing American politics, and a tribute to Bob Mackie, dressmaker to the stars. First up, though, so much of diplomacy is the orchestrated little stuff. Who stands where on the stage? Whose hand is in front during a handshake? Yesterday, Donald Trump went big on a little thing. Where to meet Xi Jinping? Speaker 5 (0:56) It's been 64 years since a sitting president met a foreign leader as they deplaned. It was all pageantry from there. Military band and cannon fire and flyovers and those big guns with the bayonets and stuff. Mr. Trump, it seems, loves this kind of thing. And it's sort of telling he wanted to lay it on so thick ahead of their meeting. Here's pretty much the most detailed summary currently available on how it went. Speaker 1 (1:25) We had a great meeting. Speaker 5 (1:29) They had a great meeting. There was so much to discuss. So what came of it? Speaker 3 (1:35) There has been a great show of goodwill between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Xi called for peaceful coexistence between the two countries, a lot more cooperation for the business world, cooperation on AI. Speaker 5 (1:51) Simon Rabinovich is our Beijing bureau chief. Speaker 3 (1:54) President Trump, for his part, said that the two countries had never gotten along better. But the truth is that beyond some nice words and an awful lot of pomp and ceremony, the actual outcomes of the summit look to have been extremely meager. Speaker 5 (2:13) So what were you expecting? What do you think people in general were expecting from this summit going into it? Speaker 3 (2:18) Well, I think it's important to step back for a second to remember that although there's very positive mood music right now between America and China, they are still in the midst of a trade war, which dates back to the start of Donald Trump's first term in office. And last year, it looked like they were headed for a total rupture in economic terms with tariffs on each other of more than triple digits. Now, they've been in a basic truce since October of last year, and there had been hopes that this year might bring bigger breakthroughs in the bilateral relationship. This summit in Washington is the second of a possible four meetings between the leaders this year. Trump came to Beijing in May. Of course, Xi Jinping is in Washington right now. And it's possible they'll be seeing each other again in November and in December. So there had been hope that this year might prove to be a hinge point where things get to a more stable path for the two great superpowers. Speaker 5 (3:16) But there's a lot of stumbling blocks in that path. What did they talk about this time around? Speaker 3 (3:21) The single most important outcome, and it is important, although it was widely expected, is that the truce between the two countries has been extended, the trade truce. They will not be racing to raise tariffs on each other. China will be continuing to export rare earths, a key group of critical minerals, to America needed for American industry. That will continue as well. Now, unfortunately, the two countries still have a lot to disagree about. So there had been some talk about the idea that China would like... that truce to be extended for the duration of Trump's second term. As a matter of fact, the truce expires in November and they've only agreed to extend it for two months. So there will be a lot more trade talks between the two countries over the next little while. There are two other big categories of discussion. One is AI and whether the two countries can find some way to manage the risks that are facing not just them, but all of humanity. And the other is security, and specifically China pushing for America to oppose Taiwanese independence and seeing whether or not they have a chance to get Donald Trump to agree to something which previous U.S. presidents would not agree to. Speaker 5 (4:31) And so where do things stand on those two counts, on AI and defense? Speaker 3 (4:35) On AI, they've agreed to have a dialogue. In some ways, that's... nothing new. In fact, even under the Biden administration, there were already talks on AI between the two countries taking place. And the fact of the matter is they basically agreed that they both want to move at their own pace. They see themselves not as cooperating on AI, but really being locked in a fierce competition. So no big breakthrough, not even a real hotline being established toward each other about significant AI risks. On the matter of Taiwan, Xi Jinping has made a stronger demand of Donald Trump more public now than we've seen in the past, which is he specifically has asked that America oppose Taiwan independence. Previously, America's wording has effectively been that it does not support Taiwanese independence. Xi Jinping has made a really big emphasis on the idea that the two countries need to be in a relationship of strategic stability, and he's trying to link this to American opposition to Taiwanese independence. We don't yet have a detailed word out on what exactly President Trump said in response to those demands. Certainly a lot of American officials and advisors are concerned that he might give too much away. So that has been one key issue to watch. Speaker 5 (5:48) And you've been talking to a lot of people in China about how the relationship has been evolving. What are you hearing? Speaker 3 (5:55) I think the single most important thing is that China is acting from a position of much, much greater confidence now. They were really thrown off balance in Trump's first term. They hadn't encountered that kind of aggressive behavior on the economic front from America. And so they were thrown off kilter. They've had several years to digest what is Donald Trump's approach to geopolitics. The industrial picture is a lot stronger for China. They believe that they've achieved much greater self-reliance in a range of different technological sectors. They're not nearly as advanced as America in semiconductors yet, but they're closer to the frontier than they used to be. So heading into Donald Trump's second