Diesel is Flipping the Midterm Map

The Find Out Podcast

The episode explores how rising diesel prices are acting as a political catalyst, potentially shifting the midterm map in favor of Democrats

Key takeaways

• Rising diesel prices are identified as a primary driver for Democratic momentum in the midterms.
• Byron Donalds has removed Donald Trump's name from his campaign website, signaling a strategic shift.

Main topics

• Diesel prices and midterm impact
• Republican candidate distancing from Trump

Notable quotes

Diesel prices are doing what a year of messaging couldn't.

Conclusion

The episode concludes that economic volatility and the perceived authe

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:07) Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Find Out podcast. You've got the full crew here today. We originally supposed to talk to Michael Bland from Black Men Vote to hear about some of the data that he is finding and how we can help to bring more black men back to the Democratic Party. But he's on a plane. And so we're going to have him on Tuesday. So we will do that next week. But, you know, we always find a way to blather on for a million a million miles. But I will say. That's yes. Hey, hey. Well, the first thing is we're not quite ready to talk about all of it, but the show that we are doing on election night is getting really exciting. And, you know, we'll probably by next week be able to tell you some of the names of people who will be joining us. We already have confirmations from folks. People are very excited. You know, we're looking at this to be the fun place to watch election returns on. on election night. So we'll have links for people to, to, you can sign up so you'll get notifications when it goes live and all that sort of stuff. But give, don't watch, don't watch the cables. You know, you know, what's Speaker 3 (1:12) going Speaker 5 (1:12) to be Speaker 2 (1:12) my favorite part of election night this year is going to be when it's like, I don't know, like four 59 Eastern or whatever. And the first polls are about to close and like CNN and MS now and Fox news are like, will the Democrats take the house? And then like the thing will flip and then it'll be like, we have a projection. Democrats take that out. And Mag is always their shit. Speaker 5 (1:38) We got to have some sort of like, we got to have a thing. We need a fantasy football thing. Speaker 3 (1:42) Yes, 100%. Do Speaker 5 (1:43) we get like a gong or is it like a real gun? I like that. Can't shoot any guns. Can't do that. Yeah, but I don't know. We got to figure out. audience, you could tell us too, right? What is the thing? And you know, maybe. Just maybe, even though I said in some meetings we weren't going to do this, if you watch the State of the Union, maybe there will be a return of the Hi-Fi Challenge. Speaker 4 (2:04) Oh, God. I am willing to have a Speaker 5 (2:07) bruised, not bloody, but bruised hand in order to celebrate taking the house. Every Speaker 4 (2:16) state that we gain a rep in, or every time we gain a rep. Every seat Speaker 2 (2:22) that we win, even the safe blue seats. Every seat. I want 234 high fives. He's going to, Tim's going to walk away like Jaden Daniels. It's going to be more like Speaker 5 (2:35) two. I mean, you put the Senate in there, there's probably going to be at least 50. So you're talking about 280. Speaker 4 (2:39) Yeah, that's true. I Speaker 5 (2:40) don't know. I'm pretty sure your hand Speaker 4 (2:42) would fall Speaker 5 (2:42) off. I think, I think we would have to, I mean, we'll be a New York city, so I guess I'll be close access to the hospital. That's true. Good healthcare. But that said, we are, you know, we are looking more and more. We're seeing some, some crazy polls that have been coming out in the last few days. Um, It is very bad for Republicans. Who's the Florida guy? Speaker 2 (3:05) Byron Douglas? Byron... Byron Donalds? Speaker 5 (3:08) Donalds. The governor? Speaker 2 (3:10) The gubernatorial candidate. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He scraped Trump's name from his campaign website. Yeah, Speaker 4 (3:15) he did. Speaker 2 (3:15) Yeah. And Speaker 5 (3:15) he is as MAGA as they come. He sucks. Speaker 2 (3:18) He sucks. Oh, he's awful. He sucks big time. Speaker 4 (3:21) No, he's Speaker 2 (3:21) Trump endorsed. And he took his... And he took Trump's name off. Yep. I know. It's a wise move. Sign of the times. Well, there was Speaker 5 (3:28) the representative, I think her last name is Salazar, in the Miami area, who was like, she was like, she wanted all the money for the immigration and ICE and the wall. And last week we talked a little bit about it, but she was like, she came out against all of that. So Speaker 3 (3:43) I Speaker 5 (3:44) think, actually, I want to turn to our... our one show host that was a little more skeptical of our blue tsunami predictions where are we at this week zach i Speaker 3 (3:57) still don't think it's like a tsunami but it's better i think i think the democrats have seen a huge improvement in their chances i just made a video about it i just put it out this morning like it's all if you look at just the data it's all diesel prices that's the only thing that changed this course like it's a second diesel prices shot up Speaker 2 (4:16) Right. Yeah. Well, but but I went back and showed that the segment of voters. Right. Sure. But Speaker 3 (4:22) like ultimately, when you look back at like the odds of whoever's going to have balance of power in Congress, it's been kind of like, well, whatever, up and down for like a year. And then all of a sudden, Democrats are just fucking going off. That's that's the catalyst. So that alone, I think, as long as that stays horrible, Democrats, it's going to. There's Speaker 4 (4:41) nothing there. There's nothing he can do to fix that. No. They are talking about Speaker 5 (4:46) doing the diesel export ban, which probably will Speaker 4 (4:49) negatively affect it. Well, yes. I Speaker 5 (4:53) mean, I think, first of all, it's a bad idea for a lot of reasons. But they do say that there could be some early or on reductions in cost. But in the long run, most experts would say, first of all, it kills the rest of the world. It will make all of their prices go up, which then has other effects Speaker 2 (5:12) on us. Which is bad for us, Speaker 3 (5:13) too. Very bad. And that's the thing. Speaker 2 (5:15) You've Speaker 3 (5:15) got Speaker 2 (5:15) to go socialism if you're going to do that, because if you're going to isolate in the industry, if you're going to cap exports, all that does is make it that much more expensive. It makes it that much more rare and that much more valuable. So then you have to price fix. And the government coming in and banning oil companies from making profits. Like that's going to piss off a whole nother group of people. So his people, it's all on the right, right? The people on the left are like, yeah, we should have been, we should have dollar a gallon gasoline. We produce a shit ton of it. We produce enough to have cheap gasoline here, but they're like, no, what if we export it, sell it for as much as we can. And then 2 % of people who have 401ks in, you know, Exxon mobile. benefit and everybody else is paying six dollars a gallon everybody else gets fucked exactly everyone else gets well the Speaker 5 (6:05) diesel thing is exactly as Speaker 4 (6:06) you Speaker 5 (6:06) say it's it's right because it also affects it's it's everything right because it's all goods all all products and you know you see and you're starting to see these videos come out from these guys and they're big you know f-150s or whatever and uh are like i didn't vote for this it's Speaker 3 (6:24) like yeah you did because now they're spending a hundred Speaker 5 (6:26) dollars at the pump Every time they go, it's a big deal, especially in the middle parts of America. So I think I am more bullish. I have seen now numerous polls that show Adam Hamilton at least tied in Kansas. Speaker 3 (6:45) And Speaker 5 (6:46) there was Republican internals that showed that as well, which to me is like the true sign. Because the public ones, sometimes you don't know what the methodology is. You have to look at the crosstabs. But the internals are the ones. that for parties for both sides want, they want a real, real idea of where they stand. Speaker 2 (7:04) Yeah. This is just today or like just what's been released. Yeah. So these polls are from yesterday, Texas Senate from Marist, Tallarico plus six, North Carolina Senate, Cooper plus five, North Carolina Senate, Cooper plus 12. These are all different. Qantas insights. Georgia Senate, Ossoff plus 10. Speaker 2 (7:26) Texas governor, you know, up by three. Yeah. California governor doesn't matter. 22 for Becerra. Let's see. There was a I saw like four in Speaker 4 (7:37) a Speaker 2 (7:37) row. Oh, Speaker 4 (7:37) Hinson versus Turek. Turek plus eight. Yeah. Hinson is fucking around. El Sayed plus seven. Speaker 2 (7:43) Peltola plus four. Peltola plus four. Like she is. But Peltola is consistently pulling ahead, either in the multi ballot, the multi candidate ballots or just the straight race against Sullivan. If I were a Republican donor and I'm looking at this like, I got a billion dollars, where am I going to pour it? I don't even know what to do with this. You're going to have to just... You play defense. Do Speaker 5 (8:06) you Speaker 2 (8:06) do Kansas or do you go for Maine or Michigan? They want to talk about El Sayed, but the fire's in the kitchen, man. You need to take care of that shit. Speaker 5 (8:15) Well, they had... What's his face? Senator Kennedy was in Nebraska. Because that's another one that's a possibility with Dan Osborne. And that's where they're playing defense in Nebraska. Like, this is a five, to me, is a five alarm fire. And they don't have an answer because the gas prices are probably going to be higher by then. At least the diesel prices. You know, we had Mr. Global on, who, by the way, is recovering nicely, saying $7 diesel is very possible. And there are people talking about being higher. Speaker 5 (8:48) Those close races, like all those like undecideds at the at the last minute, they're not going to break for the Republicans. Yeah, because they're probably Republicans themselves and don't Speaker 3 (8:59) know Speaker 5 (8:59) what to do. So I think a lot of them are going to stay home. But like if they lose Iowa, which also Rob Sands in the governor's race is going to stop him. So like. There's a candidate in each of these places that's lifting another one, right? So there's Sand that's bringing up Turek. There's Talrico bringing up Itahosa, who's running a great campaign as well. Ossoff is lifting up Lance Bottoms. Ossoff is Lance Bottoms. And people are starting to look at Angie in Florida as a possibility, which is crazy, which is why Byron's running against Dave... What the hell is his last name? Shit, I can't remember. Speaker 5 (9:40) But they're just they're screwed. Yeah. Speaker 3 (9:43) But then there's like I was just looking through all these polls is there's little like Speaker 5 (9:46) Jolly, Jolly, Jolly, Speaker 3 (9:48) Jolly. What like so OK, Minnesota Senate, nobody's talking about that race because everything's what Democrats have it in the bag. They don't at all. And that's where I look at it. I'm Speaker 5 (9:56) like, Speaker 3 (9:56) what is happening? Like the last poll is a tie. I Speaker 5 (10:00) saw that. I saw that. And I don't understand it. I Speaker 3 (10:03) think, see, this is where I think like because Minnesota has been this flashpoint. for culture war shit. So like, it shows me that's still working because ultimately it's like fucking, what's her name? Tafoya from the, she's like a sports check. I don't know. She's like a Speaker 5 (10:19) right wing idiot. She sucks. Speaker 3 (10:20) But like, just because she's associated with like this, you know, I, I don't, like, it's all like Tim wall shit. That's really what it is. Yeah. Speaker 2 (10:29) I don't know. So Speaker 3 (10:31) like, that's what makes me nervous is like, yes, the diesel shit and all this other stuff. It all makes sense. People like regular Americans are still like, yeah, but Democrats are for all this woke shit. Like, it still does a lot of damage. And I think that, like, that poll and that state is like, oh, maybe we're missing something here, you know? Speaker 5 (10:50) Maybe, yeah. And I mean, you know, the main polls are close to, though there was a ProPublica report that came out yesterday or two days ago of some shady behavior by Susan Collins Speaker 4 (11:00) and her Speaker 5 (11:00) staff. Speaker 4 (11:00) Oh, that's not good. That Speaker 5 (11:02) was Speaker 4 (11:02) off of a check that was fucking misspelled. Really? Yeah. Speaker 5 (11:06) Yeah, what was that, Luke? 150 Speaker 4 (11:08) Gs that they caught because they misspelled the pack. Oh. Speaker 5 (11:13) That was what it was? Speaker 4 (11:15) It Speaker 5 (11:15) was like Speaker 4 (11:15) the future women scientists and engineers. Speaker 4 (11:20) And they spelled, I think it was scientists wrong. So that's Speaker 5 (11:23) how Speaker 4 (11:23) they caught. They flagged it. They caught the check from eight. What was it? Eight years ago. Yeah. $150,000. Well, and the story on Speaker 5 (11:30) that is that the FBI was investigating. They had, you know, and again, like the FBI picks does these things. The president, President Biden didn't tell them to do this. The FBI was investigating this. And then Donald Trump got elected and it all went away. Speaker 4 (11:44) Shocked. Shocked, I tell you. Speaker 5 (11:45) That's another one that's really bad for them to come out now because early voting hasn't started in Maine yet. And so having that thing out there. But I agree. Minnesota's weird. And we need to probably we probably should have a pollster on to actually talk about Minnesota because it's a it's a it's it's a total outlier. Right. So it's interesting. But we should definitely keep an eye on it. Yeah. Speaker 2 (12:07) Minnesota was the only state to go for, I think, both Mondale and Dukakis. Yeah, Speaker 3 (12:12) it's Speaker 2 (12:12) a Speaker 3 (12:12) weird thing. I'm looking at Alaska. Alaska doesn't look great either. There's other places where we're not paying attention, where it's like, I don't know, maybe this isn't going to pay. I don't know. I'm still very much on the fence. Speaker 1 (12:26) For many of us, going further isn't a choice. It's a feeling we can't ignore. Because ambition has a way of outgrowing where it began. Turning dreams into direction. Speaker 1 (12:43) Every journey brings us closer to the life we imagine. So, where will your journey take you? Etihad. Beyond Borders. Speaker 2 (12:56) Well, Alaska is weird