Are We In For An Election Night Surprise?

The Dan Bongino Show

The hosts analyze early voting data and recent polling to argue that Democrats are hedging their election strategy due to lower voter enthusiasm, urging conservative

Key takeaways

• Early voting data shows Democrats trailing in enthusiasm compared to 2024 and 2022, prompting a strategic shift away from mail-in ballots.
• CNN polling indicates voter enthusiasm is roughly equal between Democrats and Republicans, contradicting 'blue tsunami' narratives.

Main topics

• Early voting turnout data
• Trump economic record vs. Democratic proposals

Notable quotes

"Don't believe the hype."

Conclusion

The episode serves as a mobilization tool, urging conservative voters

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:02) All America, all the time. Sit down, buckle up, and get ready for the Dan Bongino Speaker 2 (0:09) Show. Speaker 3 (0:10) Hey, Guy, you know what I need to do before the, we got about, what, 29 days, 30 days to the election? Right about, right, we got about a month to go, all right? On Friday or Thursday, once a week before the election, we have to play that Rush Limbaugh clip Vince had about never giving up. We just got to play. Folks. Speaker 2 (0:30) Do not forfeit this election. The numbers, actual numbers, receipts, I'm not asking about anybody's personal feelings. I'm not even asking about that. I am obviously a conservative. I am obviously a Trump supporter. Speaker 1 (0:42) I am a MAGA guy. Put that all aside. Pretend you don't know me from Adam and I'm the Tabula Rasa, the blank slate, okay? Speaker 2 (0:49) The numbers do not look great for the Dems. So why would you forfeit this election? I'll show you what I mean coming up. You don't remember Public Enemy back in the 90s? Don't believe the hype. Don't believe the hype. Look at the actual numbers. If this was going to Speaker 1 (1:05) be a massive blue tsunami and the Democrats are about to wipe us out in the election, hence the title of the show, are we in for an election night surprise? It could be a blue wave. If you don't show up, it Speaker 2 (1:15) will be. But the numbers, actual numbers of people who are enthusiastic about voting, the actual early voting numbers, Do not look good for the Democrats. I'm not telling you to look amazing for Republicans. I'm just saying, like, do not forfeit this election. Don't do it. You are going to go back to massive inflation, impeachments again, high taxes. They're openly talking about it. I got video coming up in a minute. Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona just admitting, what are you going to do to make life more affordable for Americans? We're going to raise taxes? What are you talking about? We're Speaker 1 (1:53) going Speaker 2 (1:53) to steal more of your money and flush it Speaker 1 (1:55) down the government toilet bowl? Yeah, that makes sense. Folks, the hedging is already beginning by the Dems, too. They know they've got a turnout problem. They are not popular either. A lot of Republican senators, congressmen, I get it. You know, the SAVE Act did a lot of damage in that we didn't get it passed. If we would have got that passed, I think enthusiasm would have been through the roof. I get it. But nobody's stoked about the Democrats' impeachment, high taxes, crappy Obamacare health care either. I'm not forfeiting anything. And I think from now to the election, we got to play Russia's thing. It's iconic. Never give up. Never give up. Never, ever give up. Speaker 1 (2:34) Folks, you know, growing up, I was a huge L Speaker 3 (2:37) .A., Oakland Raiders, now Las Vegas Raiders. They've been all over the place. L.A., back to L.A., Oakland. I've Speaker 1 (2:42) been all over the place. Or back to Oakland, I should say. Remember Kenny Stabler, the snake? Who remembers Kenny Stabler? Lefty Speaker 2 (2:49) quarterback. What was his line? You remember his line? Throw deep, baby. Just throw deep. Speaker 1 (2:57) Throw it deep every time. Throw deep, baby. Go for it. Freaking story of my life. How do you think some kid from Queens living above an apartment wound up here? You got to throw deep. You gotta throw deep. Speaker 3 (3:11) I was a quarterback on a local rec team in high school. I was terrible. I was terrible. I threw deep ball a lot of times during interceptions, but whatever. Speaker 3 (3:21) I got a lot of show for you today. A lot going on. Auburn, you got to help me out, man. I love you guys. But the Tigers this weekend, I'm more damn eagle all the way. But congrats to all the Tennessee fans. You know, I love all the SEC folks. You've always been good to me. But man, we're up at halftime. We got to, man, we got to pull one out. We got to pull, it's ripping my heart out. My wife's like, you just got to leave it alone. You're going to go crazy. Speaker 3 (3:46) Gee, I know what you're thinking. You know what else would make you go crazy? If you don't take care of your weight. Speaker 3 (3:53) Don't let your weight get out of control. Many Americans try weight loss shots, but they quit due to costs and side effects. I chose lean from Brickhouse Nutrition. Worked for me. No needles, no prescriptions. I lost weight with lean. You can too. Go to brickhousenutrition.com slash Dan. Use code Dan for 20 % off. Brickhousenutrition.com slash Dan. Results vary. Products and statements have not been evaluated by the FDA and are not intended to prevent, diagnose, treat. or cure any disease or condition. Thanks, Brickhouse. Today's show also brought to you by Blackout Coffee. Speaker 1 (4:20) As you can probably tell, I love my Blackout Coffee in the morning. Something about morning coffee just hits different. It's the best part of the day. Speaker 3 (4:27) It's a bold taste, never bitter. Some of the best tasting coffee you're ever going to have at Blackout Coffee. It's bold, it's smooth, it's fresh roasted, and it's one of the little things that just makes my mornings better make yours too. I'm not standing in line every morning paying $7 to $10 for whatever's basically a milkshake with some coffee, and I don't need it. I want coffee. Blackout Coffee is a small American company. It takes their coffee seriously and shares our values. Here's what I want you to do. Don't just buy a bag. Join the coffee club. Pick your favorite coffee. Tell them how often you want it. And Blackout Coffee takes care of the rest. You get member pricing, free shipping, double reward points. And the longer you're in the club, the more perks and surprises Blackout Coffee sends your way. It's great coffee at home with your schedule. No lines, no $7 coffee. and no nonsense. Go to blackoutcoffee.com slash Bongino. Use code Bongino for 20 % off your first order. That's blackoutcoffee.com slash Bongino. Join the coffee club. Update your morning with Blackout Coffee. It's terrific. Thanks, Blackout Coffee. Blackoutcoffee.com slash Bongino. All right, fellas and ladies. Let's go on a Monday. So again, folks, the hedging is already beginning. Oh, Dan, you're crazy. You're just trying to say all this stuff so people get out and vote. Well, yes, I do want you to get a vote, but I'm not Speaker 1 (5:40) just saying stuff. Stuff requires evidence. I'm not one of these doomer slop people on X that every day has a new counter messaging crap theory about the latest case du jour they know nothing about and offers their doomer slop narrative. I actually back stuff up. That's why this show remains incredibly popular with people, because we bring the freaking receipts every time. Put up this post Speaker 3 (6:02) from right WI. Bright, Wisconsin, whatever it's short for. This is a really interesting post. Speaker 1 (6:09) It's an ex-account I saw. The hedging continues. Everyone can clearly see the early vote data. Data, data. Right WI here is not talking about an opinion. The early voting has actual data now. Dems are behind in the early vote relative to 2024 and 2022 outside of a few exceptions like Virginia, which Speaker 3 (6:32) is explainable, government workers. shrinking the government workforce. Rather than admit this, Speaker 1 (6:37) the media now says. And there's Speaker 3 (6:39) a Speaker 1 (6:39) quote tweet here that Democrats are rethinking their mail voting strategy as voters grow weary to avoid discouraging their Dem base. If this was truly a D plus 10 national environment, i.e. like a blue tsunami, that would be reflected in the early voting data. It's not. So Democrats are now hedging by saying we're voting on Speaker 2 (6:59) Election Day. Maybe they are, folks. I'm just telling you, like public enemy style, whether you like them or not. Don't believe Speaker 1 (7:07) the hype. Believe the freaking data. Politico. Democrats are rethinking their mail-in voting strategy as voters grow weary. It's a data point. It's a data point. It's not a Speaker 2 (7:19) good data point. If you show up and vote. Speaker 1 (7:25) We can actually hold both houses and not have to deal with Democrats, sky high inflation, Democrat impeachments, Democrats, war on the education system, DEI back, all of the identity politics, crap, cancel culture we already dealt with. Speaker 2 (7:40) I'll get to it in a minute. But you see what happened with the trailblazers? You think cancel culture is gone? Like we defeated the Democrats and it's over? I've told you this over and over. Nobody's been defeated. People are policy. The second we lose, if we lose, God forbid. the presidency, or either house, all of this Speaker 1 (7:57) stuff is going to come roaring back. Socialism, communism, leftist identity politics, their Islamofanaticism they're in love with now, all this other stuff never went anywhere, folks. It's only a beach ball underwater. Speaker 1 (8:12) I thought they told you it was over. Everybody told you, forget it. Donald Trump said 0 % approval. The Democrats are at 100 % approval. Race is over. Blue tsunami. Stay home. Do not stay home. The data does not back that up. Here we go again. CNN polling. You think CNN covering polling to benefit Donald Trump? They can't stand Donald Trump. Here is Harry Ant and one of their pollsters over there talking about enthusiasm to vote. It looks to me like the exact same number on Democrats and Republicans. That can't be, Justin. That can't be. That's not what we heard. That's not what we heard. We heard enthusiasm was through the roof for the Democrats. Blue tsunami and nobody on the Republican side wants to vote. They're just ready to piss away their whole country and forfeit. Really? I don't know what I see. What I see at all. Here's some actual data and polling along with the early voting data should tell you this is still winnable This is still winnable receipts matter check this out Speaker 6 (9:06) 71 % of Democrats say they are certain in fact to vote in 2026 and look at this MAGA Republicans the same it's simpatico It's simpatico so MAGA Republicans are not just saying that they are still supporting Trump MAGA Republicans aren't just saying they're gonna if their choice for Congress is in fact Republicans at basically the same level they voted for Trump But they're also saying they are going to turn out in very high numbers, at least comparable to Democrats. Speaker 1 (9:34) Folks, we always bring receipts on the show. And when I'm telling you it's an opinion or speculation, like I'm going to tell or a single subject anecdote that's not really scientific and it's polling, but still matters. I'll tell you, which is what I'm going to tell you right now. I was in Speaker 3 (9:52) a church this weekend. And by the way, I ran into someone really. super like famous on the sports side. I'm not gonna say who, but I was kind of like blown away. I'm like, is that? It was like the weirdest thing. And he was like, crazy. Just like sitting there. Speaker 2 (10:09) These guys know what it was. It was just like the weirdest thing that we ran into each other outside. And it was just crazy. So but folks at Speaker 1 (10:20) church were coming up to me afterwards and chatting and they're all enthusiastic to vote again. I'm not telling you that's a I live in a pretty conservative county. So I'm not telling you like that's expandable to the rest of the country and analyzing election trends. I'm just saying the Harriet and Polly just covered about voter enthusiasm, early voting turnout. I'm not ready to forfeit this race and I don't know why anyone else would be either. If it was an early voting lead like we had back in, you know, the Bush years when they got destroyed, Dems won like, I don't know, 40, 60s. It was crazy. It was like a really, that was a legit blue wave. Then I still wouldn't tell you to give up, but I'd say, hey, man, we got a serious problem. The problem we have now is I just heard someone in the chat say, it's this Doomer slop stuff, which is like Speaker 2 (11:10) it. When I say doom or slop, I'm not in any way diminishing people's concerns about gas prices and affordability. I'm simply saying to you that whatever solution you think the Democrats will bring, if the past is prologue, it will only get worse for you. The inflation numbers under Biden were far worse. Gas prices under Obama and Biden were far worse. At least the president is trying to do stuff about it. It's just constant distractions by people who I'm telling you want us to lose. They want us to lose so they can run their own presidential candidate coming up in 2028. And they can say, you see, we told you so. Donald Trump and his administration suck. It's all they want. It's all about a grift and money. All of it. No, Dan, it's about principle. It is not about principle. I've met these people. They are clowns. They are the exact opposite of what you think they Speaker 1 (12:09) are. I'm really sorry to disappoint you. Here are the numbers. Here's Steve Moore on Fox. Stephen Moore, really good economist. I've been following Steve for a long time. You know, he doesn't agree with President Trump on everything. He's not a huge tariff guy or elsewhere, but he's been a truth Speaker 2 (12:24) teller for a long time. Here he is on Fox talking about the economy, economic growth. I'm going to show you in a second. Again, even Axios, a left wing, I wouldn't say radically left wing, but pretty left wing outlet, put out this morning, this morning, Monday, on their email list, like, hey, man, The economy's really good, but the Trump administration has an issue here in that they don't want to seem insensitive to people who are struggling. There are some, but we don't want to lie either. Like the economic numbers. are pretty badass right now. Here's Steve Morin to check this out. Hoping Speaker 5 (12:57) for closer to 75 to 100,000 jobs. But there has been a realignment of the economy over the last year and a half or so. And that's been a decline, a big decline in government employment and a nice bump up in private sector employment, which, by the way, was almost the opposite of what we were seeing throughout Biden's first four years in office, where you may recall every time we do. this report, you know, we get, say, 150,000 jobs and like half of them were government jobs. Did you know, by the way, the federal employment in Washington, D.C. is lower today than it's been in 50 years. So Trump is draining the swamp. Speaker 1 (13:37) This is the crazy thing about even numbers that are considered, you know, not great, like the GDP numbers really look good. The business investment in the United States, the manufacturing-based building, factories, again, building things here in the United States look amazing. Gas prices, not great, we can agree, but nowhere near where they were under the Democrats. It'll make your gas like $200 a gallon. Inflation numbers, not great, but again, nowhere near Biden. We were handed all of his COVID payouts and all this other, you know, Inflation Production Act crap that we got to deal with. And it's been two years and it's far better than it was before. But Speaker 2 (14:17) some of the numbers really are great. And the numbers that came out, they were like, well, The jobs numbers were only 29,000. Well, they were only 29,000 because President Trump is shrinking the federal workforce, something Republicans, Republicans have promised for decades now and have never followed through on. This is what we want, right? President Trump could Speaker 1 (14:37) have easily, easily, just hear me out on this, easily juiced the jobs numbers by doing