A Reform pact is the Tories’ only path back to power

The Daily T

The episode examines the Conservative Party's strategic crossroads ahead of their Birmingham conference and the next general election. Hosts Camilla Tominey and Tim Stanley interview Political

Key takeaways

• Kemi Badenoch has dramatically shifted Conservative policy on migration and net zero, enjoying high poll numbers that have temporarily quelled internal rebellions.
• Both Tories and Reform publicly rule out post-election deals to court anti-Farage tactical voters, though insiders acknowledge a coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangement may be mathematically necessary.

Main topics

• Conservative Party conference strategy
• Tory-Reform electoral pact dynamics

Notable quotes

"The thing that Reform has got... is they have this kind of anti-establishment vibe to them."

Conclusion

The episode provides a grounded assessment of how both major right-wing parties are navigating

Transcript preview

Speaker 3 (0:00) you Speaker 3 (0:03) The Telegraph. Speaker 4 (0:09) Hi, friends and fellow students. Americans living abroad can legally vote in the U.S. election. Register or get tailored support at VoteFromAbroad.org. Look, state deadlines are super close, so don't waste another second. Go to VoteFromAbroad.org now and click Request My Ballot and ask to receive it by email. All you got to do is fill it out and send it back in. Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. VoteFromAbroad.org. Speaker 6 (0:35) In 2018... A billionaire diamond tycoon accused of one of the world's biggest ever bank frauds went missing. This is the story of the rise and fall of Nirav Modi and of how we caught him. Speaker 3 (0:49) He was in the news all the time. Where is Nirav Modi? Why can we not find him? Speaker 6 (0:53) He's one of the most sought-after criminals in India. You owe a lot of people a lot of money, Mr Modi. They would very much like to know where you are. Sorry, no comment. The Diamond King, a new podcast from The Telegraph. Speaker 5 (1:10) Can the right beat Andy Burnham? As the Tories gather for their conference in Birmingham, the two parties, Reform and Tory, are not competing for first place. They're competing for second. Speaker 2 (1:22) What is the Blues' blueprint for claiming back power? And will it involve a pact between Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage? The Speaker 7 (1:30) thing that Reform has got, shall we say, that the Tories can never have is they have this kind of anti-establishment. vibe to them. They have anti-establishment rhetoric and that is what has allowed Farage to unite what would otherwise be quite a difficult coalition of blue-collar voters, white-collar voters, the red wall, the blue wall, whatever. He's managed to find enough people who don't buy the hype. They don't believe in a two-party system. Speaker 5 (2:02) We're now joined by our political editor, Tony Diver. Tony, can I begin by asking, on the eve of the Conservative Party conference, what is the mood? Do they think they can win or come second? Speaker 7 (2:15) I think the mood's cautiously optimistic, actually. I think what we're about to see at this conference is kind of the second act of Kemmy Badenoch, the first act being her attempt to wrestle control of the party. move it to the right on a lot of issues, try and take on reform. Now, if she's right and a general election is going to happen before 2029, this is her chance to really put the boosters under her party, try and get a slim lead in the polls. And that gives them the best chance of winning the next general election. So it seems like a lot of people in that team think that's possible. Speaker 5 (2:47) Okay. Has she taken control of the party? I Speaker 7 (2:51) think it's fair to say that certainly on policy terms, she has dramatically changed the Conservative Party from where it was after the last general election on things like migration, on the ECHR, on net zero. There have been some pretty significant policy changes. And I think the thing that she has behind her all the time is these poll numbers that show that she's more popular than Conservatives brand. So we haven't actually seen much plotting. It's like a Conservative Party without any plotting. It's Speaker 5 (3:19) a Speaker 7 (3:19) bizarre situation. Not Speaker 5 (3:20) a lot of criticism from MPs either. She hasn't really faced any big rebellions. How Speaker 7 (3:26) can they when they look at the polls and they see that she is the most popular thing about their party at the moment? On what basis could you possibly launch a leadership challenge? Is Speaker 2 (3:34) any of this rhetoric around they can win actually credible? We've had MRP polls that suggest that they might win around 130 seats. One put them ahead of reform slightly, one put them behind. When you add up reform and the Conservatives, notwithstanding the fact that they seem to hate each other and are saying they won't do a pact, still not enough to take on a progressive coalition. You've then got them trailing behind Labour now that's been given a bit of a boost by Andy Burnham and indeed possibly, we haven't got the numbers yet, but that speech to the Liverpool conference. Speaker 2 (4:11) I get this whole, they're not dead and buried. There was a period after 2024 where you could literally look at them and think, oh my God, Speaker 1 (4:17) existential Speaker 2 (4:18) crisis. And then people said, oh, they haven't been the most successful political party in all history for nothing and that there's no way that you can get rid of them altogether. And they are kind of cruising along on that 19, 20 at times 21%. Speaker 1 (4:31) But Speaker 2 (4:32) the idea of them winning the next general election, Tim? Speaker 5 (4:36) Well, let's ask Tony. Speaker 2 (4:38) Tony! Speaker 7 (4:39) Okay, well, there's loads of questions on there. The first one is we don't know when the next general election is going to be. And it's currently in the Conservatives' interest for Burnham to go as long as possible, go right out to 2029, which is what he says that he's going to do. Although, of course, there's a lot of scepticism about that and a lot of people in his cabinet who think it'd be better to go early. So there's the first question that we don't know. The second question is what happens to reform and what happens to Nigel Farage? Now, they've... obviously had an extremely difficult six months or so, and they've suffered in the polls because of that. And so if that continues for the remainder of this parliament, or if there is an early election and they have to go based on their current numbers, then it will be more difficult for them. But I think even notwithstanding all of that, most people think that there is going to be some form of coalition or confidence and supply deal required after the next general election on the current numbers. And that is why this question of whether or not there's going to be a deal on the right is... is so salient. But Speaker 5 (5:32) why won't anyone be honest about that? That's what we get so frustrated by. We keep saying to Tory politicians, reform, but you're going to work together, aren't you? Why don't they say now, yes or no? Because... Speaker 7 (5:42) They say Speaker 5 (5:42) no, but why wouldn't they say yes? Speaker 7 (5:44) Well, because the day of next general election is kind of judgment day, isn't it? Up until that point, up until the point that we have the results, we see the exit poll, BBC reads it out at 10pm. Labour and the Tories are battling it out, each to be the anti-Farage party. And it depends what constituency you're in, obviously. But there are so many three-way marginal constituencies now, or constituencies where reform is doing very well, where both of the two other main parties are trying to become the anti-Farage vote. Now, obviously, if you're Kemi Baden, or can you start talking up the idea of a Tory reform PAC, you're not going to get any of those votes. And so up until the point that we get... the results. Everyone is trying to position themselves as the most anti-Farage candidate or the people who are most likely to stop a reform government. But once the results are in, you then have to work out, well, who's the largest party? Who's got any chance of forming a majority? And at that point, the calculation totally changes. So yes, of course, everyone's going around now and saying that they won't do a deal with reform because you immediately lose the vast majority of the electorate who hate Nigel Farage if you say that. Speaker 2 (6:43) So the Conservatives lose the lefties in their midst. Reform lose the righties because they hate the Conservatives as much as Zia Yusuf right now. And so nobody can really say anything. But at the same time, when we look at that extraordinary majority won by Boris Johnson in 2019, obviously it was the uniting of two very distinct and very contrary caucuses. the red wall and the blue wall. And we know why that happened. It happened because of the promise to deliver Brexit. Speaker 2 (7:14) Have the Tories given up on the Red Wall? And if they have and they're aiming for the Blue Wall, that criticism that Kemi has still got liberal Democrat tendencies, perhaps not personally, but within the party, that's going to be writ large, isn't it? I mean, we on previously podcasts have discussed this extraordinary position that Ed Davey finds himself in as kingmaker. By definition, if he's kingmaker, then the Tories need some of his voters. And quite a few of them, actually, not just some, a lot of them. Speaker 5 (7:42) And just to say they did well in the local elections in sort of suburban southeast areas, right, where you might normally think the Lib Dems would do well. Speaker 2 (7:50) Yeah. Speaker 5 (7:50) So that's a very, that's a classic blue wall middle class vote. Speaker 7 (7:54) Well, this is the debate that's going on at the moment within the Conservative Party is how, what is your electoral strategy? Because you can't really do both at the same time. The great genius of the Boris Johnson campaign, of course, is that he managed to do both, but he didn't have the threat of reform in the same way. So it was a lot easier to do then. Now, the question is, among Kemi's advisors, the question is, do you run an essentially defensive political strategy based in the South and the Southeast with one eye on some seats that you might pick up from the Lib Dems? Or do you run a very aggressive campaign against reform, not just in the Red Bull, but also in the East, where actually you have a very similar kind of... Bizarrely, you know, in Essex, you now