Midterm Surprise: Democrats Are Surging in Red America

The Daily

In this episode of The Daily, chief political analyst Nate Cohn breaks down new New York Times polling revealing a dramatic shift in the midterm landscape: Democratic candidates are performing surprisingly well in

Key takeaways

• Democrats hold leads in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio, with a tie in Kansas and a one-point deficit in Iowa across NYT polls of states Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024.
• President Trump's approval rating in these five red states has fallen to 40%, down five points since June, driven by voter frustration over the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.

Main topics

• Midterm Senate polling in red states
• President Trump's approval ratings and voter dissatisfaction

Notable quotes

"It has been 16 years since a party has managed to win even one state that leans so much toward the other side in a regularly scheduled Senate election."

Conclusion

The episode underscores an unprecedented midterm environment where candidate

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:00) Hey, it's Anna Martin from The New York Times. What if I told you you'll never have to hear this line again? Speaker 4 (0:06) Wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 1 (0:08) Yeah, no, I actually can't tell you that. But you know what I can tell you? A place I think you might want to go. It's the Shows tab in The New York Times app. The place to listen to and now watch full episodes of New York Times shows. The Shows tab. Find it in The New York Times app. Explore The Shows tab and follow a show today. Speaker 6 (0:30) From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. A new set of polls from The Times finds that Democratic candidates are doing remarkably well in the red states that they need to win to flip control of the U.S. Senate in next month's midterm elections. But they're doing less well in the blue states that in theory should be far easier for them to win. Today, my colleague, chief political analyst Nate Cohn, offers his theory of what's behind the numbers. It's Monday, October 5th. Speaker 4 (1:10) Nate, welcome back. Michael, thank you for having me. And back so soon. It's that time of year. You'll forget about me soon. We could never forget about you. So kind. You can rest assured I will not forget about you. Speaker 6 (1:25) Okay. Nate, in your last appearance on the show, you explained that to flip control of the United States Senate, which is a genuine possibility in these midterms for Democrats, that they would have to win seats in states, to use your words in that last conversation, that Democrats have no business winning red states. Or, put differently, Republicans could keep control of the Senate by winning the kinds of seats that they always win Speaker 4 (1:58) in Speaker 6 (1:59) the Trump Speaker 4 (1:59) era. That was basically your analysis. That's right. To win the Senate, the Democrats must, even if everything else goes right, win at least two states that Trump won by at least 11 points in the last presidential election. States that traditionally the Democrats have no business winning in a federal election. Speaker 6 (2:19) Right. So that makes it a real uphill battle for Democrats. But you have just gone into each one of these Republican states where these Senate races are happening, and you have polled each one of these races, and you have found that what was once seen as impossible... might not be so impossible. So talk about which states you polled and what you found. Speaker 4 (2:43) Yeah, we polled the five red states where the Democrats seem to have their best chance of winning. Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas. All five of those states voted for Trump by at least 11 points in 2024. And we found the Democrats were really highly competitive in all five of them. We found them with... meaningful leads in three of the states, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. We found the race tied in Kansas, and we had the Republicans with a nominal one-point edge in Iowa. Nate, this feels quite Speaker 6 (3:17) meaningful that Democrats have real leads in three solidly Republican red states and are basically tied in the other two. Speaker 4 (3:26) It's extraordinary. I mean, to take a historic perspective on this, for the Democrats to even win one of these states would really be exceptional. It has been 16 years since a party has managed to win even one state that leans so much toward the other side in a regularly scheduled Senate election. So to contemplate that the Democrats have a serious chance to not just win two, but perhaps even more, this is something that we just haven't seen in this era of polarized politics. Speaker 6 (3:53) Right. And this would seem to tell us that Republicans' unpopularity in this moment and in this midterm election is basically turning. red states into battleground states, into swing states, almost. Speaker 4 (4:07) Yeah, I think that's right. This is an exceptional set of circumstances with a really unpopular Republican president, in some cases, weak Republican candidates, and in all five cases, strong Democratic candidates. And that appears to be enough to give Democrats a real chance to do something that, again, you just don't expect them to be able to pull off in a typical election. Speaker 6 (4:27) So that's the formula here that helps. to explain this. An unpopular president and strong, it sounds like, Democratic candidates. Let's just focus for a moment on the first of those. We've talked about President Trump's unpopularity in our last episode with you, and I assume the Republicans' challenges in these red states are mostly tied to that, to the fact that the president is so unpopular. But what exactly did you find? Speaker 4 (4:54) Look, it's hard to be surprised when we see bad numbers for the president at this point. been the story all cycle, but these numbers are really shockingly bad, I think, for the president. His approval rating across these five states is just 40%. Speaker 1 (5:08) And Speaker 4 (5:08) to step back for a second, these are states where Trump won 56 % of the vote in the last election. So it just suggests that a huge chunk of the typical Republican coalition in these states is outright dissatisfied with the president's handling of almost every issue that we asked about in the poll. Such as? such as the economy, the war, affordability, gas prices, in most of these states, immigration as well. There's nothing good here for the president. And I should also point out that the president's approval rating has dropped in these states five points since we pulled them last in June. So he is falling as we enter the heart of the campaign season to a real danger zone. that we didn't see earlier in the year and that I don't think we've seen for an incumbent president in such solid states probably since George W. Bush in 2008 or 2006. Speaker 6 (5:59) Okay. Well, let's move on to the second part of what seems to be behind the strength of Democrats in these traditionally red states when it comes to Senate races. And that's what you said are strong candidates on the Democratic side, which I presume means weaker candidates on the Republican side. Speaker 4 (6:19) Yeah, I mean, as bad as the president's approval ratings are, I'm not sure it would be enough for Democrats to win states this Republican if it weren't for the fact that they also seem to have really found the right five candidates in these states. Just for a simple overview, in all five of these states, more voters say they have a favorable view of the Democratic candidate than an unfavorable view. And conversely, more voters say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican candidate than... A favorable one. Wow. Even though, again, these are red states. More voters say they're Republicans than Democrats. And yet they like the Democrat more. That's fascinating. And the advantage that the Democratic candidates possess is it's very broad. I mean, just take two questions. Who has the better moral character? The Democrat leads in all five states. So that's a judgment about their personal integrity. But even more surprising, perhaps, which candidate is too far to the left versus too far to the right? Even though in all of these states, voters say the Democratic Party is too far to the left. Speaker 1 (7:13) Hmm. Speaker 4 (7:13) In all five of these states, voters say the Republican candidate is too far to the right and are less