The Iran War and the Looming Economic Collapse (w/ John Mearsheimer) | TCHR

The Chris Hedges Report

Professor John Mearsheimer joins Chris Hedges to analyze the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and regional actors like t

Key takeaways

• The Trump administration lacks a viable military strategy for victory against Iran beyond hoping for regime change through economic collapse.
• Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait has significantly disrupted Saudi oil exports, impacting the global economy.

Main topics

• Iran-US conflict stalemate
• Global economic collapse risks

Notable quotes

Iran seems to think it does not need to beat the United States, but outlast it.

Conclusion

The episode provides a sobering look at how regional conflicts and the

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:09) The stalemate in Iran, despite talks between U.S. and Iranian officials at the United Nations and Donald Trump's apocalyptic threat to annihilate Iran, is a stalemate. The Trump administration, which has achieved none of its original objectives announced when it attacked Iran on February 28th, refuses to concede defeat and broker a deal. Iran, for its part, is determined not to end the war, which includes shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and shipping into the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandab, until it has exacted high costs for Washington to preclude further attacks. Iran's control of these two critical energy waterways, made possible by the gains made by their Houthi allies in Yemen, means it has a stranglehold on the global economy by driving up the price of oil, Gasoline, diesel, freight and food prices around the globe continue to soar upwards. The Iranians are clearly hoping the economic pressure will continue to defeat, to the defeat of the Republican Party in the midterms. Last week, seven Republicans joined Democrats in a 220-204 vote to end hostilities with Iran unless authorized by Congress. This is the third time the House has passed such a measure. The cost of the war, deeply unpopular with the American public, is rising. In July, the House approved a $95 billion blueprint to provide some $73 billion in additional funding for the war. The vote to pass the blueprint, however, was razor-thin. thin, 216 to 214, with two Republicans opposing the measure. If there is another Republican defection, the vote will be a tie, defeating the proposal. If voters punish Republicans in the midterms for the rising prices caused by the war, there will be heavy pressure to cease funding operations against Iran. Exerting this pressure appears to be Iran's strategy for concluding the conflict. In short, Iran seems to think it does not need to beat the United States, but outlast it. If Democrats take control of the House and Senate, they could bar both new funds and previously appropriated funds or unspent funds. Trump, of course, could veto such a bill, but he would have to veto funding for the Pentagon, if not the entire government. Joining me to discuss the Iranian debacle is... Professor John Mearsheimer, he is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Professor Mearsheimer, who graduated from West Point and was a captain in the Air Force, is the author of numerous books, including Conventional Deterrence, Lytle Heart and the Weight of History, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, Why Leaders Lie, The Truth About Lying in International Politics, and The Great Delusion, Liberal Dreams, and International Law. relations. So, John, I don't know if you agree that this appears to be the Iranian policy, but it reminds me of what the Iranian regime did to Jimmy Carter during the hostage crisis. Speaker 2 (3:19) It does bear marked similarities, that's for sure. I think that the Iranians really have no choice but to hang in the fight and not make any major concessions. to the United States and to Israel, because the United States and Israel, I think, are not only interested in regime change, they're interested ultimately in wrecking Iran, breaking it up into a series of smaller states if they can. So from Iran's point of view, the United States is an existential threat. And therefore, I think the Iranians have a vested interest in fighting to the last person. Speaker 1 (4:02) Let's talk a little bit about the charges. I mean, of course, Trump at the United Nations threatened once again to annihilate Iran. He said that everything will be solved. The war will be over, in his words, after the midterms. And there's talk that after the midterms, the United States and perhaps Israel could carry out. strikes, heavy strikes against Iran. How much credence do you put in that? Speaker 2 (4:31) Basically zero. If they could carry out strikes against Iran that would produce victory for us, why wouldn't we do it now? Or why didn't we do it before now? And the answer is we have no strategy for producing victory. in Iran, other than hoping that their economy collapses, which leads to regime change, and then they make all the necessary concessions to us. But the idea that there's some magical military option out there that they're just waiting to use after the election is a hard argument to swallow. I would also note that one of the principal reasons that we have not used massive military force since April 8th You want to remember that there was a 40-day war, air war, at the start of this conflict. And we ended it on April 8th, as I said. And we've not gone back to it since then. And one of the principal reasons is that we are... very low in terms of our stocks of precious weaponry. In other words, we can't afford to use weapons in our stockpile in another air offensive against Iran. And that's why we haven't done anything up to now. And that's why I find it hard to believe that anybody is serious about doing anything after the midterm elections. But let's assume that I'm wrong and that we do go back on the offensive. with the Israelis after the midterm elections. How are we going to produce a victory? What's the magic strategy here? We tried this for 40 days, from February 28th to April 8th. It didn't work. What do we have up our sleeve now that's going to allow us to defeat the Iranians? I have no idea. And nobody who talks about going to war after the midterms has spelled out how we're now all of a sudden going to produce victory. The other point I would make, Chris, is that given the state of... the American economy and the international economy and what's happening with regard to supplies of diesel and oil and the inflation that that's leading to. And given what's happening in the bond market, I think there are going to be powerful economic incentives, maybe even before the midterms, but certainly after the midterms, to put an end to this war. It looks like we're heading towards a global recession. And if we're not careful, we may. end up in a global depression. This is a very dangerous situation from an economic point of view. So it seems to me we have no military option and the economic dangers are great and therefore the incentives for the United States to shut this one down sooner rather than later are actually quite great. Speaker 1 (7:27) Yeah, but that's been true for some time and things are getting worse. And yet Trump doesn't see, he of course lives in his own reality, his own bubble, and he may very well be fed by Natalie Harp and others, information that just buttresses that non-reality based vision of the world. I think that may be right. Speaker 2 (7:54) And I underline the word may. But I would note to you that he has, on a number of occasions over the past few months, including a week ago, threatened to launch a massive attack against Iran. And then he backed off or he backed down. So he has a rich history here of talking tough. Speaker 2 (8:21) time comes to actually attack, he says, we're not attacking. So one could argue that that's evidence that he understands he has no military option. And indeed, if he were to unleash the dogs, he would just make a bad situation even worse. And I think we have to hope that that basic logic that I'm describing does reflect what he was thinking up until now, and it will continue to apply moving forward. And if that's true, then I think, again, the incentives from an economic point of view to shut this war down will only increase with the passage of time. Because as you said, things are only getting worse. They're not getting better. Speaker 1 (9:04) Talk a little bit about the pressure that the Houthis have been able to exert by shutting down Saudi oil exports. Speaker 1 (9:14) Well, Speaker 2 (9:14) I think what the Houthis are doing is of enormous importance for putting pressure on the international economy because the Houthis are, of course, at war with the Saudis. And that has led to the cutoff of most of the Saudi oil that was flowing either into the Red Sea or into the Persian Gulf. Speaker 2 (9:41) The Saudis started this conflict basically on 13 July. On 13 July, the Saudis attacked an airport, the main airport in Yemen that the Houthis control. And that led to a war between the Houthis and the Saudis. That war was kept at a relatively low level until about 8 September. earlier this month. And then the war really escalated. And the fact of the matter is that the Houthis are a formidable fighting force, to put it mildly. They have lots of ballistic missiles. They have lots of cruise missiles. Their army is really a formidable combat. organization and they've ended up conquering lots of territory that now allows them to completely control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is where Saudi oil was coming out. And furthermore, they, in conjunction with their allies in places like Iraq, have been pounding Speaker 2 (10:49) Iranian, excuse me, have been pounding Saudi oil installations, and they have, in effect, shut down the pipeline that was so necessary for getting Saudi oil out into the Red Sea. And they've even attacked Yanbu, which is the principal port where Saudi oil was going out into the Red Sea. So the end result of this is that Saudi oil has been largely shut off. And the Saudis have gone to the Europeans. You want to think about this and told the Europeans that there will be no Saudi oil shipments to Europe, not only in September. but not in October as well. And on top of that, the Saudis who are desperate for their own oil and their own gas are in effect looking inside of Europe. to find sources of oil and gas, which is just complicating the problems in Europe. So the Europeans are in real trouble as a result of this war between the Houthis and the Saudis. And it is having significant effects on the international economy. Speaker 1 (11:58) So what was it, six, seven million barrels a day the Saudis were getting out through that pipeline to the Red Sea, roughly? Speaker 2 (12:04) Well, the argument is that theoretically the pipeline could carry seven million barrels a day, but in practice, four million barrels a day were getting out. Sometimes you see a slightly lower number than that. You might see 3.5 million barrels a day, but approximately 4 million barrels a day were getting out. Then the pipeline was shut down because I think it was a militia in Iraq that is friendly to the Houthis and to the Iranians. This Iraqi militia attacked. three of the stations that pump gas along the pipeline, three of the pumping stations, and basically destroyed or badly damaged those three pumping stations. And that shut down the flow of oil through the pipeline. Now, reports are that the pipeline has been reopened, but not as much oil is getting through as was the case before these attacks. by this Iraqi militia or these Iraqi militias. And the end result is that only about 40 % of the oil is getting out at the moment. So it appears that you're talking about 1.6 million barrels a day now beginning to... flow out of the pipeline. But of course, the Houthis and their allies, whether you're talking about the Iraqi militias or