This Reporter Can Tell Us What Nuclear Apocalypse Looks Like (Encore)

The Book Review - The New York Times

In this encore episode of The New York Times Book Review, host Gilbert Cruz revisits his conversation with journalist Annie Jacobson about h

Key takeaways

Nuclear war would unfold in minutes, not days, with no time for strategic deliberation or diplomacy.
The U.S. early warning system detects missile launches within seconds, but there is no way to stop them once launched.

Main topics

Hypothetical nuclear attack scenario from North Korea
U.S. early warning systems and detection capabilities

Notable quotes

"Nuclear war, if it happens, will unfold in seconds and minutes, not in days and weeks."

"There is no room to think. It is simply automated."

Conclusion

While Jacobson's book paints a harrowing picture of the immediate, unstoppable chain reaction of nuclear war,

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:02) I'm Gilbert Cruz, and this is the Book Review from The New York Times. When I first picked up the book, Nuclear War, A Scenario, by journalist Annie Jacobson, I just could not stop reading. It plays out what could happen in a horrifying hypothetical. How a thermonuclear attack on Washington could start a terrible chain reaction of thousands of nuclear missiles flying back and forth across the globe. And Jacobson explains minute by minute, and even in some places second by second, how the world might end. It's a scary book. But it's also an incredibly researched book. She talked to former high-ranking military officials, scientists, spies. And the thing that really stayed with me was the way that she chose to lay out all of her reporting in an agonizing, ticking-clock scenario. For this week's episode, I wanted to revisit the conversation I had with Jacobson last year, since she now has another book out, Biological War, a Scenario, which is equally gripping. When we spoke... Jacobson explained how she manages to compile so many details about topics that are amongst the most secret in the world. Here's our conversation from the archives on her urgent and essential book, Nuclear War, A Scenario. I hope you enjoy it. Annie, welcome to the show. Speaker 3 (1:22) Thank you for having me. Speaker 1 (1:23) Now, I... I was really shook by this book. I imagine many people have been. How many people, roughly, have told you that this is one of the more terrifying books that they've ever read? I think almost everyone. And why do you think they have that reaction? Speaker 3 (1:43) Perhaps I did my job. I wanted to write a book that showed in absolutely appalling detail how horrific nuclear war would be. And so when people say to me, either, I could barely read your book, but I had to read it, or I had to read it in one sitting, I was terrified. I was horrified. I believe, uh-huh, I did my job. Speaker 1 (2:10) Now, you structure the book in an ingenious way, I think. I briefly alluded to it. You have three parts, essentially, in the book. They're 24 minutes each. And in each of those parts, each of these sections, you have little pieces that are short or long, and they say 14 minutes, 27 minutes, 40 minutes and 30 seconds. And that means it's been 14 minutes since the first nuclear missile was launched. And this is what is happening here. And this is what is happening over here. Why did you write it that way? And more importantly, when did you realize that that was the way that this book had to be written? Speaker 3 (2:49) I think every journalist has this moment when they're reporting a book where they go, aha, also called mic drop, where you realize the answer to your question, which is how am I going to structure this? And at the same time, how does it end? And that's the gift of the journalist, for the journalist, if you have that moment. And for me, it was in an interview with the former commander of STRATCOM. That stands for U.S. Strategic Command, the steward of all nuclear weapons and all nuclear weapon systems. And doing this interview with General Keillor, I cut right to the point in one of our discussions and said, what would happen in a full-scale nuclear exchange with Russia? And without hesitation, he said to me, Annie, the world could end in the next couple of hours. And I knew right there that was the way to tell the story because no one is more of an authority than the STRATCOM commander, arguably even more so than the president of the United States. We can get into the reasons why I believe that's true. But then you have it. You realize, my God. Nuclear war, if it happens, will unfold in seconds and minutes, not in days and weeks. Speaker 1 (4:15) That was one of the most striking things about the book. You titled your book Nuclear War. We think of it as nuclear war, but it's not really a war. It's over before it begins. There are no battles. There's no time to really think strategy. As you put it in this particular scenario, a little over an hour passes and... The world is essentially on its way to being over. Speaker 3 (4:37) That's right. And so much of the literature that exists, both fiction and nonfiction, and of course, journalists, my notes are full of references to all of the people who influence my work and to whom I'm deeply grateful. But the body of literature, I believe, always talks about these. long thought out or short thought out, but nonetheless thought out situations. And the point I think that gets across loud and clear and fast and with horror in nuclear war scenario is that there is no room to think. It is simply automated. The minute a rogue nation or an adversary, a nuclear armed power launches a strategic weapon at the United States, That is when nuclear war begins, and it doesn't end until nuclear Armageddon. Speaker 1 (5:33) Now, there are many scenarios that could happen. I want you to tell us, without going through the whole book, what sets off your particular scenario here? It's a very specific thought exercise, and it starts in North Korea. Speaker 3 (5:48) That's right. And for this how-does-one-start idea, I interviewed dozens of... individuals who are presidential level advisors, scientists, spies, Secret Service, all the people who are in this command and control system, if you will. And I asked many of them the question you're asking me, wondering, what is Washington afraid of most? And when the same answer came from two of the highest ranking individuals with the most knowledge on nuclear command and control. That would be Richard Garwin, who drew the plans for the world's first thermonuclear weapon and advised every president on nuclear weapons since Eisenhower. And the more modern expert, Andy Weber, who was the assistant secretary of defense and top advisor to President Obama on nuclear weapons. And both of them told me that it was a bolt. out-of-the-blue attack against Washington that Washington fears most. And that made the most sense to me coming from North Korea. Speaker 1 (7:04) Now, what is a bolt out of the blue? I feel like it's in the name there. It's something that is unexpected. There's no communications beforehand. It just happens. And what happens, there's no taking it back. You start here in your book by imagining that there is, as you put it, maybe as others have put it, a mad king in North Korea who essentially decides to shoot an ICBM directed at Washington, directed at the Pentagon. No one knows why, and no one will ever find out why. Speaker 3 (7:37) That's right. And to your point about the bolt out of the blue attack, what I found incredibly interesting, and I think what readers really relate to, is believe it or not, nuclear war is pretty easy to follow, at least the way I was able to describe it from my sources, because so much of it is, like you said, bolt out of the blue. That's exactly like it sounds. Well, it is. Other policies that America has, like... Launch on warning. What could that be? It's exactly like it sounds. Somebody launches on us, we launch when we get the warning. We do not wait to absorb a nuclear blow. And it's in piecing together all these little euphemisms or colloquialisms that you realize this system only works one way. And like I have said, and I cannot repeat enough times, It only ends one way, and that is in total nuclear annihilation. And by the way, that is from every source that I spoke with, from General Keillor on down, believes that if nuclear war were to happen, that's it. That's the end of the civilization as we know it. Speaker 1 (8:49) And as you write here, nuclear war doesn't necessarily need to be one nation with which we have... relations launching multiple missiles at our mainland after failed negotiations in some way. It can be as simple as North Korea, which we know very little about, although you, through many sources, try to piece together everything that we know about North Korea in relation to nuclear weapons. We get the warning here in the United States. And as you say, it's all on rails in a sense. Everyone knows what to do. No one has time for dissent. No one would even think about dissent. But there's still a lot of chaos involved. What did you discover were the most surprising or chaotic aspects of the first 24 minutes, let's say, after we discover that there is an ICBM headed towards the United States? Speaker 3 (9:44) One of the things you learn right off the bat when you read the book is that an ICBM, that is an intercontinental ballistic missile, It travels from one continent to the other, like it sounds. It takes approximately 33 minutes to get here. It cannot be redirected, and it cannot be recalled. And when you keep that at the front of your mind when you realize all this, coupled with the radical technology that the United States Defense Department has and has developed since World War II, to be able to look at enemies who might want to launch on the United States. That's called our early warning system. We can see the launch of an ICBM across the world in the first second after Speaker 2 (10:37) it Speaker 3 (10:37) launches. And so there begins the ordered part of what is absolutely mad chaos once the bombs start striking. And of course, the book is divided up into these three different sections, the first 24 minutes, the next 24 minutes, the last 24 minutes. And that is because a series of requirements, if you will, the command and control protocols that move into position as these events are happening are unstoppable. Speaker 1 (11:14) What is command and control? Again, it might... be as obvious as it sounds because apparently everything in the everything is as obvious as it sounds but what does it actually mean Speaker 3 (11:24) It is as obvious. It's how do you command the arsenal and control the arsenal? But here's another one. It's actually command, control, and communicate. Speaker 1 (11:35) Because Speaker 3 (11:35) there is all kinds of communication going on. But again, it's one-way communication. There are no conversations like, hey, what do you guys think?