The Knicks (and a Crowded East) With Zach Lowe, Plus Anthony Jeselnik on Book Clubs, Roasts, and Stand-Up Comedy in 2026
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Bill Simmons sits down with Zach Lowe to analyze the current landscape of the NBA Eastern Conference and the historical lifespans of basketb
Key takeaways
- Zach Lowe suggests NBA dynasties may now have shorter lifespans (around 4 years) due to salary cap pressures.
- The discussion highlights Jalen Brunson's massive rise in stardom, noting his upcoming Saturday Night Live hosting role.
Main topics
- NBA Eastern Conference Predictions
- Tim Duncan's Legacy
Notable quotes
I just chickened out.
Conclusion
A nostalgic yet analytical look at how both sports and comedy legends
Transcript preview
Speaker 3 (0:06) The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new episode of The Rewatchables on Monday night. We did Law Abiding Citizen, a movie that I never expected would be on The Rewatchables, and yet I kept getting sucked into it, and so did Van Lathan, and we decided to podcast about it. So that went up on Monday night. Really fun one, actually. Craig Korlbeck joined us as well. Coming up on this podcast, Zach Lowe is in town. We had lunch. We said, fuck it. Let's turn on the mics. Let's turn on the cameras. Let's go. So we talked about basketball for an hour. And then Anthony Jeselnik, who has a new podcast coming with us at the end of the month, Jeselnik Book Club, which has been a YouTube series for him that we are now bringing to The Ringer and Spotify as well. And that's launching at the end of the month. And if you wanted to see him, by the way, he's doing stand up all over the place. Go to AnthonyJeselnik.com and see where the tour dates are. He's even going to be. in Portchester and Philly this week. So yeah, if there's not a nor'easter. All right, so we're gonna take a break. I'm gonna bring in Pearl Jam and then my friend, Zach Lowe. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. The NFL is here and it's the most rewarding season ever on FanDuel with the all-time FanDuel Rewards Club. Every eligible bet can earn you points. Win or lose, you still get points. The more points, the bigger the rewards you can unlock. Head to FanDuel.com slash BS to start earning with FanDuel Rewards Club. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Get in problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Speaker 3 (2:17) Zach Lowe's in town. We're taping this on a Monday afternoon. You were just here. We had lunch. I was like, we have, we're near the studio. We should just tape something. And then we were like, what should we record? What do we do? So we have an idea, but I did dawn on me as we were eating lunch. I have known you now for 15 years, dating back to the kind of heading into the 2011 season when we tried to hire you for Grantland for year one. And I didn't remember what happened. but you ended up staying at SI. I chickened out is what happened. Something got screwed up. No, I thought we screwed up. Speaker 2 (2:51) I Speaker 3 (2:51) chickened Speaker 2 (2:51) out. No, I just chickened out. You chickened out? Speaker 3 (2:53) Yeah, Speaker 2 (2:53) I just chickened out. Speaker 3 (2:54) I Speaker 2 (2:54) thought we Speaker 3 (2:54) screwed Speaker 2 (2:55) it Speaker 3 (2:55) up. Speaker 2 (2:55) I was like, this is this new thing. Is it going to work? Sports Illustrated is this like hallowed brand. It was like just a very backwards way of looking at it. It's not spotting the trends. I didn't spot the trends very well. Interesting. Speaker 3 (3:07) Cause for this whole time, I felt like we effed it up and then a year passed and I was like, that's it. That was our one chance. They're going to figure Speaker 2 (3:15) out how good he is. We Speaker 3 (3:17) stayed in contact. And then the next, the next summer, that was it. And we worked together for the last three years there. But I'm trying to remember what, what were, what were the things I told you? When I, like the, I'm trying to remember the advice I gave you other than don't make yourself crazy. Cause the big thing was you were writing like. Speaker 2 (3:35) You're writing Speaker 3 (3:35) like two, three times a day. Speaker 2 (3:37) Oh, at SI? Yeah. I think your advice, like, so you're talking advice to like. Speaker 3 (3:42) No, I was like, all right, here's what I think can happen. Speaker 2 (3:45) Yeah. I think you, you were big on just, you're writing too much. You're trapped in this blog cycle. Like when blogs were a thing, that was what I was doing. I Speaker 3 (3:54) caught at the hamster wheel. Speaker 2 (3:55) Yeah. And you need to get out and meet people and like spend more time doing that and less time just churning out every bit of content. possible because that's the only way you're going to write things that are truly meaningful or, you know, then your other advice after that was start a podcast. And I said, no, I don't want to start a podcast. And it turned out to be, you Speaker 3 (4:15) didn't listen to me on that for like a year. I Speaker 2 (4:17) don't think it was a year. I think Jacoby intervened and was like, he's not going to drop this. He's very persuasive. You just need to do the podcast. I think once we came up with the name, you got more excited. Speaker 3 (4:27) Yeah. The low post. It's a great name. Now I remember the hamster wheel thing. Because I remember reading you back then and you had all these great ideas and then you would have to move on to the next thing two hours later. And I'd been in a little bit of a similar situation when I was on my own. Yeah. So I was like, all right, what if he's just concentrating on three of these ideas a week? But then the other thing was like, go, go meet everybody you can. Like we sent you to that one all-star weekend where not to write. And you were like, I don't have to write anything. I was like, don't write Speaker 2 (4:55) anything. I vividly, it was in Houston, Texas. Yeah. Not only did I go. I filled in for you because you were supposed to do the BS pod with a bunch of players that they were going to bring in like one by one. LaMarcus Aldridge is the one I remember. Oh, yeah. Something happened. You like got delayed. And much like today, you just sprung on me at the last minute like, hey, you're doing this in my stead. And I was like, wait, what's happening? LaMarcus Aldridge is coming on? I forgot Speaker 3 (5:22) about that. You had a bunch of players. Speaker 2 (5:24) And we were all, me, you, I wish I could remember the full cast. Jacoby was definitely there. We were all at a bar. in Houston at one of the fancy hotels where everybody was. Speaker 3 (5:32) Yeah. Speaker 2 (5:33) And that, and like there were rumors that Jordan had been there earlier in Speaker 3 (5:36) the Speaker 2 (5:36) night. Speaker 3 (5:36) No, that was the Speaker 2 (5:36) Four Speaker 3 (5:36) Seasons. It was okay. I didn't Speaker 2 (5:38) want to, you know, Jordan and Oakley had been in the bar at some point. And that's the first time I laid eyes on World Wide West. He came into the bar, said hello to people, and left. And it was like this ghost had come in and just like vanished through the wall. And I was like, wait, that was World Wide West? Yeah, it was a fun all-star. World Wide West, Speaker 3 (5:57) now a world champion. He's world champion Wide West. It's Speaker 2 (6:01) crazy. Speaker 3 (6:01) Crazy. I wonder what happens with that because I wonder how long those guys stay there now. Speaker 2 (6:07) I think it's a fair question and one many in the league are wondering. Speaker 3 (6:10) Wes and Leon. They kind of did what Speaker 2 (6:11) they Speaker 3 (6:12) said they were going to do. They took over in 2020. They've been there six years. Speaker 2 (6:15) Gerson left. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what happened there. Wes Speaker 3 (6:18) is, I'm going to say, 63, 64 range. Looks Speaker 2 (6:22) great. He's that old. He looks great. Speaker 3 (6:24) Nobody has any idea how old he is, but I think he's around there. And I think Leon's probably around the same age. And they did what they set out to do. And that's, you know, what is that? How many, what's the shelf life for that team? Two years as a contender? Why is it just two? They're not old. You know why I would say two? Because I've been thinking a lot about this because I was doing a lot of historical. I was working on. I don't know what I'm going to do with a second book of basketball or what the hell I'm going to do. Fingers will work or do Speaker 2 (6:54) it as a Speaker 3 (6:54) pod. It's been my summer project, been working on stuff. And I became really fascinated by that Warriors five-year run and how much it took out of them and all the stuff that they've said about it since and how. You know, they basically played six seasons in five. They put 100 games a year and they barely made it through the fifth season and literally broke down as the playoffs were going in the fifth season. And then you think about what happened with the Celtics recently, where that was probably a four year run. But even if you go back to 2020 in the bubble where they made the conference finals, they suck in 21, finals in 22, conference finals 23, finals 24. And then they run out of gas. And I just wonder if the NBA is like. if it's a four-year run now. Speaker 2 (7:39) Could be. And they got to pay everybody, right? You said like what's... Speaker 3 (7:42) Well, Speaker 2 (7:42) then you have the Speaker 3 (7:42) salary cap too, yeah. Speaker 2 (7:43) What's left for Leon to do? One thing is like pay Jalen Brunson what Jalen Brunson has expected and earned. Kat's up for an extension now. I do have a feeling all of those guys, like Ananobi's up for an extension pretty soon. Hart's up for an extension now. I think they have realized like there is some... There is some enormous value in being a hero in New York City and this team works. And I bet they'll all take, other than Brunson, who has already done his part, taking less. I could see them all being like, you know what? That's fair. We'll accept that. You know, whatever. To stay together. Speaker 3 (8:18) Towns is making like $58 million a year. Speaker 2 (8:20) Yeah, it's a $61 million player option for next year, I think. So that could break them apart. But I do, I was actually talking about this with somebody last night over dinner. Like, does it matter at all? that they just cruised through like playoff year number one as it wasn't their first playoff year together, but that long playoff run number one, almost after the conference finals year, that it was not like a 24 game slog of overtimes and crunch times to win the title. Like the middle two rounds of the playoffs were like just in and out blowouts, all that stuff. I don't know how much that matters, but there's a little less tread than some of those runs. I Speaker 3 (8:57) think about. That's one of the many things I defend Duncan with as he's about to get dismissed historically as a top 10 guy. And I have him seventh. No, Speaker 2 (9:06) there's no, Speaker 3 (9:06) who is going to get dismissed? Speaker 2 (9:08) It's already happened. Well, who's going over him? Who's vaulting over him? Because there's a Speaker 3 (9:12) bunch of people now in their twenties and thirties who didn't see him play, who weren't there and who are just looking at basketball reference and be like, he was only 20 and 11. So Speaker 2 (9:21) how Speaker 3 (9:21) was he Speaker 2 (9:22) better than Kobe? So who's. retiring that's going to jump into the top 10. LeBron, obviously, but leave that aside. But like Durant is not better than Tim Duncan career-wise. Steph's not better than Tim Duncan. Some Speaker 3 (9:32) of the Speaker 2 (9:32) people Speaker 3 (9:32) that are already there are passing Tim Duncan. Like, I think Kobe now, the consensus is Kobe's better than Tim Duncan. I know, we can't do this. Speaker 2 (9:40) But Speaker 3 (9:41) Jerry West, like whatever. But going back to the Miles point. No, just no. But think about the Miles Duncan had where 0-2-0-3 in this, but you know, he's... He's back-to-back MVP. 03, I think they played, it was 03 or 05 where they played the most playoff games possible. They played like 27 or something. I Speaker 2 (10:02) should know this because I just went back and researched all these championship Speaker 3 (10:05) teams. Speaker 2 (10:05) But Speaker 3 (10:05) that 03 Speaker 2 (10:05) season, Speaker 3 (10:05) he played over 4,000 minutes. He was like 3,100 regular season minutes and I think 1,100 something playoff minutes. And then they also, he did the 04 Olympics. So he went from... Didn't go great. In 04, they lost, I think, in the Western Finals on the Derek Fisher thing. 05, they make the finals. They do it. 06, they lose to Dirk. 07, they go all the way. And then they kind of started, you know, they cratered there for a couple years. But you go back and you look at that five-year window and all the miles they put on him. Like, he was never the same after that. Speaker 2 (10:37) No. He was basically on one leg from that point since. But also still really good all the way toward the end, basically. Yeah, look. If you and I are just going to have to do one Tim Duncan was amazing episode every year, if that's the price that everyone must pay for him to remain a top 10 player, like it's just indisputable that he's a top 10 player. Speaker 3 (10:57) Durability, consistency, and unselfishness about your stats. Speaker 2 (11:02) Don't make us do it, America, because we will do it. Speaker 3 (11:04) We'll do it. But he didn't, like they'd win. All he cared is that they won. He didn't care if he had like 18 and nine. Speaker 3 (11:12) Ever. He didn't care if he had shots. And he was the backbone of that whole era. But anyway, I was thinking about that. So when you go back to the Knicks, they have, this Speaker 2 (11:23) is three straight. Basically pretty long runs. Conference finals. Conference finals. Championship. Conference Speaker 3 (11:29) finals, right? Weren't they conference finals two years in a row? No. Oh, second round conference finals. Speaker 2 (11:32) Before they shit-canned him to help break the streak. Speaker 3 (11:35) Right. So if there's two years left, that's a four-year run. By the time that's over, the guys are in their early 30s. And I think it becomes less realistic according to NBA history. So two Speaker 2 (11:45) years here. I'll tell you, as a Connecticut resident, I like to say New York City adjacent. I mean, just... to prove the significance of what happened. I feel like I've spent my entire summer talking about the Knicks. Every single person in my life in Connecticut still wants to know about the Knicks. Were Speaker 3 (12:03) you really at game four? What was it like at game Speaker 2 (12:06) four? What was the tip like? What was the city like? Where were you? What was the vantage point for OGN and OB's tip? It's just nonstop. I Speaker 3 (12:13) had Speaker 2 (12:13) a Speaker 3 (12:14) Jets fan friend of mine, Mark Cimino, who's also like a lifelong Knicks fan. And he was... texting me after the Jets game because the Jets had their typical terrible collapse with bad clock management and the whole thing. And he's like, before the events of June 13th, 2026, I would have been really upset today. But now I don't really care. So now it's a date. It's June 20th. The Red Sox date was October 27th, 2004. And June 13th is now the next date. That's the Speaker 2 (12:43) day they win the World Series. That's Speaker 3 (12:45) the day they win the World Series. The Roberts deal was, I think, the 19th. Speaker 3 (12:49) I think we won on the 27th. Yeah. I'm old now. I can't remember dates. But yeah, June 13th is going to be the day. So we look at the Knicks. One of the things we thought about is... Oh, we're working now? We're going to work now? No, it's a little work. Just like, I still think the Knicks to me, I wouldn't say prohibitive favorites, but they are my, you hate when I bet my life, they are easily my bet my life team in the East. I think unless they have injuries, I would expect them to be back. I don't know why they wouldn't be. Speaker 2 (13:20) Injuries, wear and tear, backup center situation, not quite what it was. Speaker 3 (13:24) I Speaker 2 (13:24) think they... Yeah, Speaker 3 (13:24) you Speaker 2 (13:24) can fix that. Speaker 3 (13:25) You Speaker 2 (13:25) know, they snuck in those last week, like all the guys that they signed for like non-guaranteed training camp deals that were good players like Bruce Brown. They'll add another guy who helps them get through the season, but they'll miss Mitchell Robinson. But I agree with you. Like I'll pick the... I'm going to... As of now, I'm picking the Knicks to make the finals. Speaker 3 (13:43) What you said before about what it meant to the city and all that stuff. Like Brunson's hosting Saturday Night Live this week. Crazy. Crazy. What were the ads of that? What six years ago, what were the odds of the Knicks winning a title versus Jalen Brunson hosting Saturday Night Live? I think I think that had to Speaker 2 (14:00) have been higher. How many teammates over under three and a half Knicks teammates appear on the show? I mean, if everybody if Speaker 3 (14:08) Towns isn't involved in the show, he might actually crash the show and have to be removed by Speaker 2 (14:13) security. The one no brainer is Hart is coming on within 90 seconds. Josh Hart will be on within 90 seconds. I think Harden bridges together, right? Because that's like the Villanova. I think as a New Yorker, like a true blue New Yorker, you have to have Alvarado on the show. He's got to be, he's got to appear. And so now we're already up to like five guys. I can't wait. It's a lot of pressure on John Brunson. This is, he's out of his comfort zone. There's been athletes who've gone on and kind of bombed. And there's been athletes who've gone on like Peyton Manning kind of changed his whole post-playing career by like, oh, he's kind of funny. Speaker 3 (14:43) There was something interesting that happened at the US Open when, uh, Shelton won to make, I think the finals. I think it was the semifinals when he beat Big Foe. And they're just doing the interview after. And he's like, yeah, man, I was looking around the stands Speaker 2 (14:57) and like Speaker 3 (14:58) Jalen Brunson's here. And he talked about it. It was like Jalen Brunson is now like Frank Sinatra or Leo DiCaprio. But he is. I think that's what happened. I think out of like beyond winning the title and now being, in my opinion, one of the 50 greatest players we've ever had because of what he did. The burden that he had. I think Speaker 2 (15:17) he's on that level. 15? 50. I was going to say. No, not 50. So you're a good person for this. I just said this on my pod last week. I don't know if any player's fame level has increased more in one two-minute span than OG Ananobi's ever in the history of sports. OG Ananobi went from like... Speaker 3 (15:38) Like well-known Speaker 2 (15:39) NBA, like everyone thought he was a good 3 and D guy. NBA nerds all knew him. He's like world famous now. He's on shows. He's. Yeah. I was Speaker 3 (15:47) going to say football where you have like the random David Tyree has the helmet catch because it's easier to Speaker 2 (15:52) have like a famous Malcolm Speaker 3 (15:53) Butler. Yeah. But it's almost like the spinoff of that question is somebody that was already doing really well, but wasn't a famous celebrity, but then became a famous celebrity because of a sports moment. Yeah. Speaker 2 (16:07) I think. He's probably more famous than he wants to be now. Speaker 3 (16:11) It's also crazy. I mean, there's so many crazy things about the Knicks thing, but the hypothetical OG Ananobi, and we have all these NBA players and we always talk about upside downside and ceiling basement. And Ananobi was always like, well, if he's healthy. and he can carry big minutes. Like, there's no better rig. And it was always the if, yeah, but. And then not only does he, he was probably their best player for the first part of the playoffs. He Speaker 2 (16:36) was incredible start to finish. And they made Speaker 3 (16:39) probably the second greatest play in the history of the league on the tip. What's number one? I still think the Ray Allen shot's the greatest. If you actually, and we've discussed this before, but if you go back and look at, I think he's the only one in the history of the league that makes that shot. He's backpedaling. He knows what the moment is instantly. And he's practiced it for whatever reason, because he's an OCD maniac his entire life of like, if I'm ever in this situation where my team gets a rebound and I have to get a shot off, I will backpedal these seven steps and be able to release and I won't step on the line. I Speaker 2 (17:12) don't think anyone else could have done it. This is a good pod one day when we're prepared is the greatest, greatest. I mean, people have done the like the biggest momentum swinging plays. In terms of championship odds, Ananobi would be right. I think I did this on my pod, actually. I think Ananobi was second in terms of like single play that swung the odds of an NBA finals, not game seven. We Speaker 3 (17:33) did this. We did Speaker 2 (17:33) this. And it was the only one that was bigger was Ori's shot in 2005 Spurs Pistons game five, where Sheed inexplicably abandons him after he's the inbounds passer and he makes a game winning three. Speaker 3 (17:46) Wasn't just that. Didn't he have like. I think he had like 21 of their last 35 points. Yeah. Some crazy. He Speaker 2 (17:51) like lost his mind. Um, big shot, Bob Hall of Famer. You put him in the hall of fame. Not Speaker 3 (17:57) only did I put, not only would I put him in the hall of fame, um, he, when I did my pyramid in 09, I had him like 83rd. Cause I think he's unquestionably the greatest role player of all time. When you look at all the different things he did, even if you go back and look at, for some reason, some Kings fans sent me a long email because they were upset that I had the Clippers as the most incompetent franchise in the history of the NBA. Speaker 2 (18:23) Oh, they wanted their team to be vilified. It's like, Speaker 3 (18:25) what else do we have to do to get that? Like, it's like, just go back and look at the box score from game six and game seven in 02. How do we not have this title? And for some reason, I went back and basketball reference. They have all this stuff now that they didn't have when I did my book. Break it down by the quarter. Yeah. Speaker 2 (18:43) By the Speaker 3 (18:43) half. So you can go and you can watch. So I went and I looked at the second half of game six of how many fouls the Kings had. I think they had like 24 fouls. And the Lakers shot like 34 free throws. I think just in the second half. Speaker 2 (18:58) I think it was. There's a number in the fourth quarter of free throws is astonishing. I mean, I go back and I read Jonathan Abrams, Malice in the Palace piece from Grantland like once every two years. Or not Malice in the Palace. He wrote the Kings, the Kings Lakers oral history. I just did the Malice in the Palace one last week. Speaker 3 (19:14) Yeah. Speaker 2 (19:14) And I rewatched like the fourth quarter now and then just, I love those Kings teams so much. And that was, it was. You know what the Speaker 3 (19:22) reality was? It's, it's to me, I feel the same way about them as I did with the 94 Knicks. Like ultimately like your biggest moment of the season. And it's just not incapable enough fans. Like. Like the Knicks, that 94 Knicks team really came down to John Speaker 2 (19:37) Starks had to make a shot. And none of the Knicks fans really 100 % trusted him. Well, Speaker 3 (19:42) the Kings. Same with those Kings. It was like Doug Christie. It was Turkoglu who wasn't totally ready yet. It was Chris Weber who wanted no part of the situation. Speaker 2 (19:50) Pagia infamously has an air ball in overtime. Speaker 3 (19:52) They just, they weren't, they didn't have the one guy who's like, Mike Bibby was kind of their only I got this guy, but they needed the second one. And Speaker 2 (19:59) he also got. elbowed by Kobe in the face. Got elbowed by Kobe. Allegedly fouled Kobe. Right. Speaker 3 (20:04) Kobe took him out. Kobe guarded him down the stretch on one of those games too. Speaker 2 (20:09) But, you go back and watch Shaq and Kobe in 2001 in particular, but any of those three years and they have games where it's like, how did anyone ever beat this team? Like, they were just, particularly in 01 when basically nobody beat them ever when they tried. Speaker 3 (20:23) It's so weird even to watch the spacing from back then. Speaker 2 (20:26) Oh yeah. Speaker 3 (20:27) And, I don't even know how you compare eras anymore. I almost feel like, I feel like basketball kind of has to end with the 2010 finals. And then there's like this new version of it that comes the year after. And it's like this, it's almost like movies where movies have these different eras where it's like silent films and then black and white. And then like in the early seventies, the modern movies come in and just feel different. You watch the stuff from, I don't know, pick any finals. It Speaker 2 (20:56) does look different. Two bigs who can't shoot on the court almost all the time. The Speaker 3 (21:00) 86 Celtics in game four, for some reason, this was on one of the socials. I was like, okay, I'll watch the last three minutes of this. And they had Walton and McHale and Bird. And I think they had a fourth forward out there with the guard. And they're just all crammed in. And McHale is getting double teamed. Nobody is spacing it, but Bird actually spaces it and hits a three. And he has so much space. Like nobody's within five feet of him. And it's just like, how did they not realize that that's what you should do? And that would have gotten Kevin McHale more, whatever. But we didn't really realize it until like 2013. Daryl Morey, Speaker 2 (21:35) unemployed GM. Daryl Morey was like, you know what's a big deal? Three is 50 % more than two. I think we should do that. You know what else is Speaker 3 (21:44) good? Spacing. Yeah. I wonder who gets credit for the spacing. Speaker 3 (21:50) I wonder who figured that out the best. I mean, you Speaker 2 (21:52) got to give D'Antoni a lot of credit. Maybe Speaker 3 (21:53) the 0-9 Magic? Speaker 2 (21:55) You're going team-wide? Yeah, Stan Van Gunney was ahead of his time. I'm just trying to think of different Speaker 3 (21:57) teams that probably figured out. Because they really spaced it out around Dwight. And then they would shoot more threes. But then they would also have the mismatch of Dwight against whoever trying to get the rebound. Speaker 2 (22:07) I think the most tactically underrated coach in NBA history is Rick Adelman. Like, in terms of spacing, inverting the floor, using his bigs as passers from the elbows. Like, he was... I'm glad he got his due and he got in the Hall of Fame. I had been advocating for him to be in the Hall of Fame for like 10 years before he got in. I think he's also deserves a lot of credit. I don't know why we're talking about this. This is what we just thought we'd turn the mic on and go. Well, we were talking about the Knicks. I could do movie reviews if you want. I just watched a bunch of scary movies. Well, Speaker 3 (22:35) you said, why are you on a scary movie run? My Speaker 2 (22:37) wife was out of town. Like, I got to watch all these movies before she comes back. She can't tolerate them. Obsession? I'll just do one word reviews. Obsession? Fine. It follows. Speaker 3 (22:48) Liked it follows. It follows is good. Scared me a little bit. Good gimmick too for just to talk about in life. The Speaker 2 (22:53) invitation. Have you seen the invitation? Who's in that? No one that I know. It's the dinner party. Yes. It's a dinner party. It's Speaker 3 (23:02) a Speaker 2 (23:02) dinner party. I don't think I've ever been so uncomfortable for two straight hours of my entire life as I was watching the invitation. I mean that in a very good way. Did Speaker 3 (23:10) you see the invite? Speaker 2 (23:12) That's Speaker 3 (23:12) new, right? Olivia Wilde, Seth Rogen, Ed Norton. No, I have not seen that. Speaker 2 (23:16) Penelope Speaker 3 (23:16) Cruz. I should do that one. I don't know if your wife would like Speaker 2 (23:20) it. Speaker 3 (23:20) She's got very... Speaker 2 (23:21) Plane? No, she's got... No, plane movie? Or too good to watch on a Speaker 3 (23:25) plane? Speaker 2 (23:25) It's like a dialogue. Oh, that's a good plane movie. Yeah. Speaker 3 (23:28) The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. I want to talk about Thursday nights because Thursday Night Football got even better with FanDuel. Well, how did that happen? With early win, a fast start could be all you need to win big for Falcons versus Packers. Just bet the money line. If your team jumps out to a seven point lead at any point in the game, you'll win instantly. I would do this with the Packers. Whether your team scores in the opening drive, builds an early touchdown lead, whatever you want, whoever you picked, you could be celebrating before the game's even over. Seven nothing, you're done. Check out FanDuel's early win for Falcons versus Packers. Do the Packers. In the FanDuel app, just another reason why this is Speaker 2 (24:11) your Speaker 3 (24:11) most rewarding season Speaker 2 (24:12) ever on FanDuel. Speaker 3 (24:14) 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Speaker 2 (24:28) This episode is brought to you by Speaker 3 (24:30) Uber Eats. Look, it's right here. It's football season. You can now get BOGO deals every single week. on game day favorites, like wings, pizza, fries, snacks. I like all those things. My Sunday routine, because I know I have the podcast at night, I go a little healthier on the Sundays. You know, it's not something I would normally do, but when I know I have this, I want my brain to be working right. Usually you should try to find the best possible salad place, maybe a deli that has some, some soup and like a wrap. Yeah, I know I'm old. I can't, I can't do it like I used to, but that's what works for me. Whatever works for you, do it on Uber Eats. Basically whatever game day calls for, you can get almost, almost anything on Uber Eats with deals every week. Uber Eats, official on-demand food delivery partner of the NFL. And you can order now. For alcohol, you must be of legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See Speaker 2 (25:30) app for details. All right. Want to do Eastern Conference quick? Speaker 2 (25:36) Yeah, you're into this. So Nick's at Speaker 3 (25:38) the top. Speaker 2 (25:38) We Speaker 3 (25:38) should mention, Speaker 2 (25:39) you, Speaker 3 (25:40) me, and House are going to do over-unders. Yes. House is coming out to LA. You can't come, but you're going to be in the TV. We're going to make it work. We're going to Speaker 2 (25:45) make it work. Speaker 3 (25:46) I appreciate your flexibility. Speaker 2 (25:47) These Speaker 3 (25:47) aren't futures. Like we're saving all the future talk. I had two questions for you. Okay. The first one is, it feels like we have 11 playoff teams in the East, but there's only eight playoff spots. And I'm giving Knicks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors, Pistons. This is an order of the odds to win the conference. Cavs, Miami, Orlando, and then India and Atlanta, Charlotte. Okay. Three of those teams will not make the playoffs. Speaker 2 (26:15) Okay. So if you had to lean. Who's not making it? Speaker 3 (26:19) If you had to lean right now, and neither of us are nearly done with our prep and the season doesn't start for a month. But so this is more like a like a leans. OK, where would you lean for your three that you don't think are making it? Speaker 2 (26:33) I'm X-ing Charlotte out right away. And the odds suggest that we should. They're way below. There's a big gap between them and then Atlanta and Indiana above them. I Speaker 3 (26:43) was surprised by the over under for them, but maybe I shouldn't have been. I think it's thirty nine. For sure. You thought it would be Speaker 2 (26:48) higher? Speaker 3 (26:50) I mean, that team was, last year was, what did they finish? The last two-thirds of the season, they were like 37-19 or something crazy. Top Speaker 2 (26:58) five, both ends of the floor somehow. Pretty dramatic drop-off, Speaker 3 (27:00) but I guess it would be LaMelo-based. Speaker 2 (27:02) And, you know, LaMelo, they got a lot of youth. They got a lot of depth. I think they're going to be a good team. Like, don't get me wrong. I just put them number one. We ranked of the seven teams that have not won a playoff series in the 2020s, I ranked them number one as like the team I most like to be the GM of. But I don't, I think in this field, I'm a little lower on Atlanta, I think, than the over-unders and the lines are. I just think they have a lot of questions to answer about, was their defense that was a top five defense for the last like 40 games of the season, was that a real thing or was that a product of like a little bit of luck and a lot of scheduling? Is that real? And if it wasn't real. Do they have to play a bunch of their shaky to non-shooters more together because they're their best defensive players? What does that do to their offense? They have, like, very little size. I'm a little worried about Atlanta, so I'll take Atlanta. And Speaker 3 (27:55) they took the lottery pick, who we have no idea if he's going to help them out at all this year. Speaker 2 (28:00) Which is fine. They're playing the long game. Atlanta's sitting there, like, just watching. I don't Speaker 3 (28:03) think Speaker 2 (28:03) they care Speaker 3 (28:04) if they're good this year. Yeah, I Speaker 2 (28:05) completely agree. They're playing the long game. They're like, we had a ton of assets. Well, maybe some of these other teams will make panic trades to try to get into the playoffs. Well, Speaker 3 (28:13) they Speaker 2 (28:13) never Speaker 3 (28:13) got involved in Giannis, right? And Speaker 2 (28:15) we'll be the last man standing whenever the next big thing that actually fits us comes through. They Speaker 3 (28:19) had some improbable stuff happen last year, like Alexander Walker just turning into a 20-point scorer. I don't know if that was real or not, but we'll find out once and for all. Speaker 2 (28:28) I mean, I love Nikhil. He was making like... crazy threes. No, he was like making A Speaker 3 (28:34) -list scoring shots. Speaker 2 (28:35) Like off the dribble, corner threes with hands in his face. Like hands in his face. It probably Speaker 3 (28:39) was real. I just kind of want to say it again. He's real. I think you should say it a second time. So we have the same first two. I had the most questions about those two and so does FanDuel and so does the betting public because they are not in the top nine. So who's your third then? Go ahead. Just say it. I know who you're worried about. Speaker 2 (29:00) This is, it's hard. I'm going to say, Oh boy. Oh boy. Speaker 3 (29:08) So it's, is it, can it, is it fair to say it's down between Miami, Orlando and Indiana? Speaker 2 (29:13) I would put more teams in the list. You'd Speaker 3 (29:17) put Speaker 2 (29:17) more? Speaker 3 (29:17) Would you put Detroit in there? I Speaker 2 (29:18) think someone, no, I think Detroit, well, we got to see what happens with Duren. Like the fact that they did a Sar Thompson before Duren and on a timetable like where, like, I don't know if Duren was even close last year when he was in a Sar's boat of like going into your fourth year versus now he's done with his fourth year. That's an interesting one. I still expect that deal to get done. I still thought it was Speaker 3 (29:37) interesting that Thompson's one got 50 million more than the other. Well, Amin has been better. I mean, Amand had 18 points a game last year. But Speaker 2 (29:44) I Speaker 3 (29:44) wonder if that, I wonder what that's like with the brothers. Obviously, they're twin brothers. You know, I Speaker 2 (29:48) would hope, I would hope that it would be like, we just got almost $400 million guaranteed to us. Like, we're good. Should we buy a house together? Speaker 3 (29:57) Well, you only have one kid. I Speaker 2 (29:58) have Speaker 3 (29:58) two. I was trying to figure out how I'd manage the egos of that. Those were my two kids. And it's like, Amand got 205. us are got 155. Maybe Speaker 2 (30:10) they can do like, didn't the Morris twins just have one big, they just had like one bank account or like one, they, they, they considered it as like, we, we collectively made whatever amount of money. Speaker 3 (30:18) You Speaker 2 (30:18) guys Speaker 3 (30:19) made $360 million guaranteed. Share Speaker 2 (30:22) it. Yeah. You guys are good, but this is what, anyway, uh, I will say, I, I do think one of these teams toward the top seven is going to underperform because of injuries or randomness. The safe pick is Orlando. I will say Orlando for now. I just have enough questions about their offense. And just to sort of, it makes me nervous when teams are going into a season knowing, like, if this doesn't work, someone is getting traded. Like, just the financial reality is someone's getting traded. And so I'm a little nervous about that. But I also think Orlando. New coach. I think he's a good coach. I think Sean Swain's a good coach. I also think Orlando. I've said this before. It's like being slept on as a top six candidate. So I guess I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth. I don't know. But if you're forcing me to pick, I pick I'm picking Orlando. I think Detroit has too much like built in infrastructure to fall that far. I Speaker 3 (31:14) don't understand the darn thing at all. It feels like a real stalemate on what each side thinks the person is worth. But I think if you ask the general consensus of people who are smart, who follow the league like us, I would say it's a huge mistake to pay any center $40 million and up a year unless it's Jokic or somebody like on that level. Speaker 2 (31:40) So what would you do? Speaker 2 (31:43) I don't know the Speaker 3 (31:44) Sacramento thing. Sacramento loves me. Speaker 2 (31:47) That's become one of my favorite, you know. They're winking at me again. These reports, it's like, why do I have to take what these agents are telling me hook, line, and sinker? Like, just for the scoop? Like, just to say, he's got max offers already out there. Like, okay, maybe, maybe he does. I don't know. Like, fine. Who cares? Also, Speaker 3 (32:08) this is like the classic Daryl Morey move of. where in this case he did have the max or offer with Harden. where the teams, it's like, oh, you know Harden's agent. It's like, yeah, OKC's stuck at four for 50. It's like, fuse with us. That's five Speaker 2 (32:24) for Speaker 3 (32:25) 80. No question. We'd max them out. And now you plant that in the agent's ear and he's like, I mean, Houston would pay us that. And now you're, so I feel like teams are seeding that. Speaker 2 (32:36) Let's game it out. Like, let's go back like two months to pretend like there's a little, or. a month and a half to pretend that there's a little more like flexibility among the other 29 teams who now have their rosters mostly filled, et cetera. You could pay Joe and earn $40 million a year, which it seems like is going to happen because even the reports of them being apart are like, they're now just like 10 million apart over five years. They're at Speaker 3 (33:01) 190 and he's at 40 a Speaker 2 (33:03) year. So yeah, you're basically there. Speaker 3 (33:05) Don't Speaker 2 (33:05) figure that out. B. Dare him to take the qualifying offer. I think the deadline for that is October 1st where he has to take it or not. You know why I'm rooting against that? Why? Because I want Cooper Flagg to be the first person ever to do that. Okay. You're open about this. Speaker 2 (33:23) Because he's from New England. That's it. And he's a Celtics fan. You're just that soft, soft hearted. He's from New England. Yeah. Speaker 3 (33:30) That's how you're going to phrase it. From Maine. First of all, his family is the first family of Maine. Like screw the Bushes and Kennebunkport. It's the flags now. I Speaker 2 (33:40) didn't know you were this passionate about Maine. 86 Speaker 3 (33:42) Celtic fans on my level playing on the way to practice DVDs of the 86 Celtic games. This is like the Celtics family. Speaker 2 (33:53) You just got legitimately upset at me, I Speaker 3 (33:55) think. I just like, this is, this would be like if my son was, was Cooper Flagg. Speaker 2 (34:01) It'd be like, yeah, we'll see what happens with that Dallas qualifying offer. Speaker 3 (34:04) The moment I could get him Speaker 2 (34:05) to Speaker 3 (34:06) sell Speaker 2 (34:06) this. If your son were Cooper Flagg, you'd already be investigated by. by walk to a lift in Rosalind catch, you'd be Speaker 3 (34:11) out. Speaker 2 (34:12) Like the Speaker 3 (34:13) deal, there'd Speaker 2 (34:15) be a paper trail of like you emailing just unsolicited emails to Brad Stevens being like, just telling you, Brad, like, I know you're not going to reply to this email, but Pablo's texting me. Hey, it's Pablo Torre. Can we talk? We'll come for the minimum. Speaker 3 (34:30) Listen, man, it's don't count us out. Don't count us out with Cooper. Speaker 2 (34:34) Would you sign and trade Duren? Would that be your move? I Speaker 3 (34:37) would. I would. I don't, I think when, when you're paying your center in this, whatever the salary cap system is over $40 million a year on top of Thompson and Cade, I don't, you're not winning the title with that. So Speaker 2 (34:49) Thompson, those are your moves. That's your team. So Thompson taking a deal. I don't have, you sprung this on me, so I don't have my laptop, but it's a percentage of the salary cap where it's like viable. For the three of them to get paid if they get during it, like 40 or 38 or 37. Yeah, no, it all makes sense financially, Speaker 3 (35:07) but flexibility. But what's your team at that point? Speaker 2 (35:09) So, okay. So here's the counter and I get, I get what you're saying. And I think it's actually. maybe the smartest course to take. I don't know, but you do need a center. Like you need some center long-term to pair with Cade. And he, he pairs with them about as well as you're going to get, but the playoffs were not good. Not Speaker 3 (35:29) for 42 million a year. He's Speaker 2 (35:31) either 22 or barely 23. He's almost 23. Speaker 2 (35:37) And it's gotten better. And Cade loves him. Cade loves him, but also he's Speaker 3 (35:41) gotten better. He's worked on stuff. He's improved every year. So Speaker 2 (35:45) I just think, like, again, it might be the right move, right? Because you trade him. Flashback two months ago, you trade him, you get, let's just make it up, a decent player, three first-round picks and a swap, something like that. Then you have to then parlay. It's like the Celtics with the Jalen Brown-Paul George trades. Like, it's the next move. that is going to define whether the controversial move is the right move or not. And so you have to actually make the next move. And it's, I think, harder. I think a lot of GMs would be risk averse and say, like, I don't know if I can make that next move and get me something that fits at least as well as this, which, yeah, the playoffs are ugly. We won 60 games last year. Speaker 3 (36:25) I don't know if anyone's winning a title paying a non-impact center. He's an impact center, but you know what I mean? Like a superstar. In the playoffs, he Speaker 2 (36:32) wasn't. I mean, let's be honest. He wasn't. Speaker 3 (36:35) The other thing is, Shangoon is like 30. Speaker 2 (36:38) A year? Yeah. Something like that. It's Speaker 3 (36:41) a Speaker 2 (36:41) little more than that, I think. No, it is about that. 30, low 30s. I Speaker 3 (36:44) just think that's the price for the non-yokage centers for me. Speaker 2 (36:48) Who would you rather have for the next five years, Shangoon or Duren? Speaker 3 (36:53) If I were them and I could flip Dern for Shang-Goon, I would think about it because I'd just rather, I feel like they're at the same level and I'm just saving money. If I ran a team, I would be so obsessed with this cap and how to do this correctly because one mistake, you're set back for three years. Speaker 2 (37:10) Because Shang-Goon is like, they're not really similar players, but just in terms of like the percentage of the cap that has now been devoted to them by young up-and-coming teams, although Houston is like half young, half not. is somewhat similar, and they both have these sort of like, Shang-Goon is not really a three-point shooter, although he's dabbled. Durin is not at all. Shang-Goon is a Speaker 3 (37:31) rough defender. Shang Speaker 2 (37:32) -Goon is not a rim protector. Durin, that's the wild card is Durin's defense. Can he become a top five defensive center, top six defensive center in the NBA? Shang-Goon will never be. Speaker 3 (37:43) Aren't there complicated advanced stats on that with Durin? Speaker 2 (37:47) Yeah, his numbers are all over the place. Like some of his room protection numbers trend well, some don't. I think he's just okay right now in totality. But the body type and just the athleticism is so enticing in a way that Shingun will never have. But Shingun also, like as a passer, as a post-up threat, is on a completely different level. Speaker 3 (38:06) And it's also, I mean, Shingun didn't play with a point guard last year. I'm pretty sure point guards matter still. That's one of my work in theories in 2026. They do. It's one of your Speaker 2 (38:14) great theories. But this is what we were talking about the East and who's falling out, right? Speaker 3 (38:19) Well, wait a second. One last thing on Shingun. Speaker 2 (38:26) Trying to think of him and Cade together. Speaker 3 (38:30) See, one thing with Dern, I thought, I really felt like he gave them a lot of their fuck you last year in a good way. But he, you know, he really, just a badass game to game, really, really competitive. And I do think that was a big part of why they won 60 games. Speaker 2 (38:43) He's super physical. I Speaker 3 (38:45) just don't understand what happened to him in the playoffs. And I almost wish he could, like, even if he gave a press conference and he's like, I put so much pressure on myself with this new contract coming that I cratered in the playoffs. And that was what happened. I'd Speaker 2 (38:57) be like, okay. It's an acceptable explanation. He's so young that I'm willing to just be like the pressure of the moment, team scheming for him a little bit more. Like in that first round series against Orlando, Orlando's just entire game plan was we're taking him out of the series. We're taking the Cade-Durham pick and roll out of the series. We're switching everything. We don't care who that leaves on Cade if it's an unfavorable matchup. We're just not letting him roll to the basket unimpeded. And I think that just fucked with him. Who was the Speaker 3 (39:24) team that was kind of undercutting him on the alley-oops? Probably Orlando. I Speaker 2 (39:28) mean, because they were going under screens on Cade and trying to switch underneath Durant to prevent him from going to the round. They were basically trying to Speaker 3 (39:35) make him... Yeah, it was Orlando. They were trying to make him just think about it as he was going up in the air. And it did seem like it Speaker 2 (39:42) fucked with them a little bit. And they still made it to game seven of the second round against the Nuggets. The Speaker 3 (39:48) reality Speaker 2 (39:48) is they're going to pay him. Speaker 3 (39:49) They'll get, he'll be one between 195 and 200. They'll probably settle in the middle. Speaker 2 (39:54) I've been like 98 % certain that like every podcast to do, I'm like, look, he's going to sign with the business. The closer this gets, the more I'm like, maybe something funky is actually going to happen. I don't know. I still expect them to pay him. I think you're right.