The Fifth Annual “My Guy” Fantasy Football Draft With Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck

The Bill Simmons Podcast

In the fifth annual 'My Guy' Fantasy Football Draft, Bill Simmons and his Ringer Fantasy Football Show colleagues Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck discuss their draft strategies, the

Key takeaways

• Information overload has diminished the effectiveness of fantasy prep, making it harder to find true sleepers due to widespread visibility of players like Parker Washington and DeJounte Stribling.
• The 'zag theory' suggests that drafting boring veterans—like Mike Evans or T Higgins—may be a smarter strategy when everyone is chasing flashy, high-profile players.

Main topics

• Fantasy football draft strategy
• Information overload and player visibility

Notable quotes

"It's harder to get information than ever before, which makes actual information more valuable than ever before."

"Sometimes knowing a little bit's worse than knowing nothing at all."

Conclusion

Despite a lack of standout sleepers and an overabundance of information, the team finds value in

Transcript preview

Speaker 2 (0:00) you Speaker 2 (0:06) This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday Ticket. Man, I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday, all in one place, and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple years ago because it's the best. New users, that might include you, can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments. of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancellable payments of $30 a month. First charged at purchase. Availability varies with NFL sending ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. It is. Speaker 2 (1:28) The fifth annual My Guy Fantasy Draft? Fourth? Third? How many years is this? I think 2022, man, we started. I Speaker 3 (1:35) should have been more prepared. Speaker 2 (1:36) I'm Bill Simmons. Have the fantasy guys here from the Ringer Fantasy Show or Ringer NFL Fantasy Show? I can never remember. Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Speaker 3 (1:46) Yeah. Speaker 2 (1:46) We're off to a great start. Danny Heifetz, in town. Danny Kelly. Craig Worldbeck. We like to pick. We do our guys, the guys that we like. We go around. We have dumb categories. I'm going to start before we do the draft. Pretty kind of lousy fantasy prep season, in my opinion. I don't feel like there's enough kind of crazy pill guys. There's not enough variants. I'm just a little worried. I'm worried that this is going to be a fun podcast, honestly. I just think it's very down the middle. Just hitting drives down the middle of the fairway this year and not a lot of variance. What do you think? It Speaker 3 (2:26) also just feels like nowadays all the sleepers that like, I don't know, maybe five years ago you could have gotten in drafts. These like secret guys you could like in the preseason. It's all out in the open now. Everybody knows about Parker Washington. It used to be like five years ago you could actually get him. Now all those secrets are out. Speaker 2 (2:41) Except for A.J. Barner. Ooh. I feel like he's my mild secret. Speaker 1 (2:45) I like that. Do you Speaker 2 (2:45) agree with this that we just have too much information now? Speaker 1 (2:48) I mean, yeah, I think that, I mean, this becomes like a Brian Curtis media podcast, but I think that like social media has almost replaced regular media as like where people are getting the source of information. So things just go viral, like as a starting point. So like Dijon's dribbling with the 49ers, like a video goes viral and then that's all people see. So it's almost like people are kind of through the looking glass. And then also a lot of, a lot of interesting people are just hurt and banged up, which is also detracting. I was going to say that. Speaker 4 (3:11) Yeah. This has felt like, and we'd say this every year, but really this year feels like one of the worst. seasons pre-seasons for injuries for some of these top skill players uh i mean every guy that we've kind of mentioned on our show it feels like it's kind of a running joke now that Every guy we mention, he just immediately gets hurt. Speaker 3 (3:27) The new zag now, I think, is because guys like Parker Washington and DeJounte Stribling, everybody knows about them. You almost have to go the other way, and it's like boring veterans that no one wants to take in a draft anymore. That's where you can kind of find— That happened in Speaker 2 (3:38) baseball, too. Yeah. Yeah. Like in the early days of baseball drafts, just take the dude who hits .290 with 20 homers. Yes. 88 RBI. It's Speaker 3 (3:45) like no one's going to want Mike Evans, but it's like you should probably just take Mike Evans. Speaker 2 (3:48) Yeah, I was wondering if there's like just a zag theory to do with drafts now. You Speaker 3 (3:52) go boring vets because they're not going to get— they're not going to go super high in drafts. Everyone's going to reach for all the sexy players. And it's like, you can just take a bet. Devontae Adams will be fine. Speaker 2 (4:00) But last year, there was a bunch of those dudes that nobody was really excited about. And then it turned out they were good picks. But like this year, I look at Garrett Wilson, who I think everybody has either been burned by or wanted to take him and was glad they didn't. And now he's kind of residing under some line. But he did Speaker 4 (4:18) afterthought. Maybe Speaker 2 (4:19) be awesome Speaker 3 (4:19) this year. Speaker 2 (4:20) T Higgins Speaker 3 (4:20) is another guy. Nobody talks about, nobody thinks about T Higgins is like as dependable and reliable as you could get. Speaker 2 (4:26) So you think we, do we need to zag back to a different era where we have less information? Cause actually I tried something this year. I tried to do, I don't want to say less prep, but I almost felt like I was over prepped last year. Speaker 1 (4:39) Well, I think it depends on what you mean by information, because I also think just because there's practice videos going around without any context doesn't mean people know what they're talking about. Ashton Gentry being the perfect example. It's like a game of telephone. Ashton Gentry gets hurt and they're like, well, the team, everyone's surrounding him and everyone's like, oh, he's out for the season. And then he's like, oh, he has a low ankle sprain. He's a high ankle sprain. No one knows anything. And actually, I think this coincides with real football, where Mike McDonald was talking about this and he said, you know, coach of the Seahawks. And he was like. It's harder to get information than ever before, which makes actual information more valuable than ever before. It's like you used to motion receiver across the formation. And if the cornerback follows, it's man coverage. Now you don't even know that anymore. And I think that there's a media thing with there too, where you're like, oh, I saw this video of this guy. And you're like, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. So sometimes knowing a little bit's worse than knowing nothing at all. Did you notice when he said Mike McDonald, Danny just Speaker 2 (5:27) kind of could Speaker 4 (5:28) feel it? He Speaker 2 (5:30) just seems so happy. He's so Speaker 4 (5:31) dreamy. Speaker 2 (5:31) He's the best. It's probably the best coach in the league. Have you been watching Hard Knocks? Speaker 4 (5:35) A little. I've been watching bits and pieces. I'm going to binge it right before the season to get really psyched back. It's actually been good. It Speaker 2 (5:43) is. Speaker 4 (5:43) I feel the Speaker 2 (5:43) other way. I feel like it's the most irrelevant it's ever been. I have not watched it. Speaker 1 (5:47) I haven't watched it in a long time, to be honest. Does Speaker 2 (5:49) social media ruin Hard Knocks? I feel like it kind of did. The Speaker 1 (5:53) Giants ruined Hard Knocks because the offseason Hard Knocks was supposed to be, it's such a better product. Having four months to be distilled into like, why did the Giants lose Saquon? It's like such a better product. And then it comes out in July when there's no football. It's so much better than hard knocks being made in like three-day spurts of training camp where they don't want to reveal anything. It's such a better product. And the Giants were so embarrassing on hard knocks offseason. You think that would Speaker 4 (6:15) be a draw, though? No Speaker 1 (6:17) one wants to do it. But I'm like, the Giants literally just filmed losing Saquon Barkley to the Eagles. And then everyone's Speaker 2 (6:22) like, I'll never do that ever again. The one thing that we don't have enough that I would actually be excited about is when the team's... kind of do the scrimmage things. What are they called? The joint practice. The joint practice. Oh, yeah. They're great. Those are better than Speaker 4 (6:35) preseason games. Totally. They Speaker 2 (6:36) are. I was devouring, like literally devouring the A.J. Brown highlights from the third game. Speaker 1 (6:42) That Speaker 2 (6:42) was the best preseason Speaker 3 (6:43) game. Speaker 2 (6:43) I was watching different fan angles. Like I was like deep, deep, deep dive. And it's like, I would just pay for this if they showed it. Because then the actual preseason games are horrible. Oh, yeah. So why not just have the joint practice? The gambling guys talked about this on Monday that we would all pay for the joint practices, basically, because it seems like that's Speaker 4 (7:02) the Speaker 2 (7:02) only way to really evaluate what's happening. I watched the second pass game. Nobody played. Yeah. You know, well, the coaches are Speaker 4 (7:07) the coaches talk about if we have a really good practice today, we're not going to play our starters in the preseason games because they're just I think they play harder in those games than you see in the preseason games. The starters play like one series, whereas in these practices, they're probably playing the whole practice. Speaker 2 (7:22) Before we get to our draft, I wanted to mention you posted another picture of you guys on Instagram together eating. And I think Heifetz has mastered the 40-year-old virgin poster smile when he's in these pictures. I want Speaker 1 (7:39) to flag it. 31-year-old virgin, I'll have you know. Speaker 2 (7:44) You're the most happy guy to be photographed because House had a picture of you and Dabundo and him. With golf, same thing. Heifetz is just, he's the most paparazzi friendly guy at the ringer. He's Speaker 3 (7:55) already prepared to be a dad. You already have like the dad, I'm with my kids in Hawaii vacation photo smile. Totally. It's great. Speaker 2 (8:01) How is he going to pull off the pretending to be asleep with my young newborn on my chest photo? Just excited Speaker 1 (8:07) at all times. Yeah, you fill in the screen. I just love life. I don't think we take Speaker 2 (8:11) advantage enough of Speaker 1 (8:12) it. Speaker 4 (8:12) No. Meanwhile, I'm like Forrest Gump, my eyes are closed in every picture. Speaker 2 (8:17) I just blink, blink every time. Danny, how has your life changed since the Seahawks won a second Super Bowl? Speaker 4 (8:23) Honestly, it's been kind of a weird Super Bowl afterglow. It doesn't almost feel real. I don't know. It was like a weird Super Bowl in the first place. Because Speaker 2 (8:31) you got no respect from anybody? Yeah, and everybody won Speaker 4 (8:34) the Super Bowl and everybody kind of moved on. Well, this Speaker 2 (8:37) is Speaker 4 (8:37) what happens Speaker 3 (8:37) when you don't have dynasties. When it's like random rings, I feel like people don't even really think about the team. You need to win two or go two in three years. No, as a Speaker 1 (8:44) Knicks fan, I had the greatest summer of my entire life. But that's Speaker 2 (8:47) the Speaker 1 (8:47) thing. The basketball is Speaker 3 (8:48) so different than football. Speaker 1 (8:50) I agree. I will say. I Speaker 3 (8:51) mean, Speaker 1 (8:51) it's been great. It's been great. Like, you did not enjoy the Seahawks win. Because Speaker 4 (8:54) we had Speaker 3 (8:54) 20 years of Brady going to every other Super Bowl and then Mahomes going to, like, five and seven years. So I feel like when a random team now sneaks in and win, you kind of don't know how to break Speaker 1 (9:02) it. Right, right. Well, he didn't. You didn't enjoy the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl. I didn't enjoy it. How random was it? I didn't enjoy the game. I enjoyed it afterwards. Speaker 2 (9:09) 19-0. Speaker 1 (9:11) Was that? Would Speaker 4 (9:12) you lose two games? Three? Two or three games? In all of them, you could have Speaker 2 (9:16) won all three games. Right, right. Nobody kicked their ass the whole year. Now, this year, people are like, can they go Speaker 3 (9:21) 10-6? You had the fake win against the Rams. You have to factor that in. Speaker 2 (9:25) That was ridiculous. The Charminite two-point conversion is like the most sliding doors. It's Speaker 3 (9:29) a Speaker 2 (9:29) coaching point. Which Speaker 4 (9:30) got Speaker 2 (9:30) you home Speaker 3 (9:30) field advantage in the playoffs. It almost Speaker 2 (9:33) caused Al Michaels to retire during the game. He was so confused. Rashid. Shaheed! Speaker 4 (9:40) Oh, come on. That's a coaching point. They teach him to pick up the football. It's something they do from Pop Warner. Yeah, it's a super normal rule and everybody knows it. It's freaking... It looked normal. It's Speaker 3 (9:50) legit. Speaker 4 (9:50) It's Speaker 2 (9:51) a Speaker 4 (9:51) normal looking play. Speaker 2 (9:53) We're going to do our fantasy preview. Our My God draft. I have categories. The only thing we're doing different this year, I'm just going to read all the categories and we'll go. And if we all agree on a guy, we'll move on. Because I thought, you know, the pace got a little slow. I'm here for the fans. I'm here for the listeners. I want to have a little bit of a better pace. I don't think this should be a two-hour podcast. Tight 90. Yeah, I feel like it's... Horlbeck rule? Speaker 3 (10:18) 100 minutes or less. 100 minutes? Yeah. This needs to be like the movie Speed. If the pod goes below 50 miles an hour, we slow up. Speaker 2 (10:25) Did you guys know about the whole thing where Craig was getting bummed out because people were mad about the Horlbeck rule? Speaker 3 (10:30) They misinterpreted the whole point of it. It wasn't like there will be bloods too long. It needs to be 100 minutes. That's not my point. My point is that we need to appreciate when a movie is great that is short and it's hard to do that. You're Speaker 2 (10:41) not going to believe this, but the internet took it and ran it the wrong way. Speaker 3 (10:45) It's like, Craig thinks every movie should be 100 minutes. Not like the Odyssey should have been 90 minutes. Speaker 2 (10:51) Was the Odyssey like maybe 10 minutes too long though? Speaker 3 (10:53) It was too short. I agree it was too short. Too short. I thought some of the scenes, I thought Nolan was jamming in every scene and it was like, man, that like... Whatever the three-headed monster that came out of the cliff was, I'm like, that was like a two-minute scene. Is it true Speaker 1 (11:05) the IMAX projectors can't go more than three hours, so it had to be under three? Speaker 3 (11:09) They Speaker 1 (11:09) heat up? They overheat? No, Speaker 2 (11:10) I don't believe that's right. Speaker 1 (11:11) That's a good one. I don't know. It should have been longer. It's the only movie I've ever seen where I'm like, that was half an hour too short. The Speaker 3 (11:17) shots Speaker 1 (11:17) have Speaker 3 (11:17) to be short because the IMAX camera can't run more than a three-minute take. Speaker 1 (11:21) Okay, so that's... You know what? I'm not going to go on this podcast and give my thoughts. Speaker 3 (11:24) I thought it was Speaker 1 (11:25) a little rushed. Yeah. Legitimately, I thought it was a little... It's a 10-year journey. I'm like, I Speaker 2 (11:29) mean, it's fine. Would you have thrown in a touch football scene or just something to get the other guys to Speaker 3 (11:33) hear? A Tom Speaker 2 (11:34) Gunn beach scene? Speaker 3 (11:35) Yeah. Speaker 2 (11:35) All right. Fantasy preview. First category is My One True Love. This is basically how this whole idea started of who do you just love the most? Who has your heart? So, Heifetz, you go first. Who has your heart? It's Brock Bowers, man. Tight end for the Raiders. Speaker 1 (11:52) It's Speaker 2 (11:52) probably a bad thing Speaker 1 (11:54) to love, and I'm probably too early on it for the Raiders. But I just think Brock Bowers is such a baller, man. And he literally had, as a rookie year, he had the second most catches of any rookie ever. And it's not just tight ends. Like, only Pukunuku has more catches as a rookie than Brock Bowers. Last year, he was incredible, and then he hurt his knee. And he came back. He looks incredible this year. And I just look at the coach. Again, speaking of the Seahawks, the offensive coordinator last year, Clint Kubiak, is at the cutting edge of getting the best player. The football. Jackson, Smith, and J-Bull last year had the receiving record in yardage for the Seahawks by week 11. And I just think those principles, if not the exact same routes and everything, the principles apply of Bowers is going to get the football. And I like him so much better than the receivers in that range. Nico Collins, Drake London. Bowers could just have a better season than those guys straight up. Speaker 2 (12:39) I was going to have him as my one true love guy. And also like Brock Bowers is so underrated. And then I went to our draft guide. We had him for 35 bucks. I was like, you know what? That's a fair price. It's basically 90 % of a receiver price. Yeah. I had him last year in every league I was in. Right. And he got hurt and he came back and he wasn't 100%. But the guy is a psycho. Yeah. Like you're watching these games. They're down 17 to like Kansas City in the third quarter and they're throwing over the middle and he's like. bouncing off three guys. It's like stepping on people. And you're Speaker 3 (13:12) just Speaker 2 (13:12) like, don't Speaker 3 (13:12) get hurt, Brock Powers. Just make it through this game. You're down 17. Yeah, there was a video this offseason of like tape on his knee and people, there was like one video of him on the sideline and he kind of hopped on one leg like he was avoiding the other and people were freaking out. That's because Speaker 1 (13:23) of the Pearsall thing. Yes. Well, then he caught two touchdowns in the lay of the practice, which is why the videos are nothing. But I mean, Kubiak called him a football robot from heaven. Yeah. Speaker 2 (13:32) I love him as well. He's number 20 in our Ringer Fantasy Rankings, which is a... great thing that all of you should check out out there. He's going to Speaker 3 (13:39) be hard to, like, he's going to go early in drafts. I think it's going to be hard to get. So you Speaker 2 (13:42) have Jefferson at $41, Lamb at $42, and then Brock Bowers is $35, and New Cole Collins is $34 as wide receiver eight. And I think I agree Speaker 3 (13:53) with Speaker 2 (13:53) that. I Speaker 3 (13:53) like Speaker 2 (13:53) that you're talking Speaker 3 (13:54) auction prices. We're doing snake. Speaker 2 (13:57) Are you an auction guy or are you a snake guy? No, I just, I think it's a better way to assess. I'm still auctioned for the other league I'm in. But I think that's right because... Speaker 2 (14:08) How many tight ends can sniff within? Speaker 2 (14:12) 80 % of his stats to share if he's healthy, right? Not many. McBride, McBride, Tyler Warren, Loveland and Speaker 1 (14:18) Warren are the only guys that wouldn't be surprised. Even Kyle Pitts or Harold Shannon would be really surprised. No. Okay. All right. Good start. What do you got, DK? Speaker 4 (14:25) This one is one that I just can't be unbiased on. It's Kenneth Walker, the third for the Chiefs. I tried to think of my one true love. This kind of goes back to your intro. Like, it's kind of a weird season. My one true love is Jameer Gibbs, but he's the first overall pick. So, like, what's the point of talking about that? So I went with Kenneth Walker. It reminds me just a little bit of. I guess it's maybe a bad analogy, but that Saquon Barkley going to the Eagles thing, like a really good running back going to a team where they're going to make him the focal point of the offense and really get him involved. And then he just goes absolutely ballistic. I think Kenneth Walker has a chance this year to really, really break out in a big way based on like, number one, I've just always loved him. I think he's one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL. If you look at the numbers, it's that that really bears out. He breaks tons of tackles, explosive playmaker, has like a ton of big plays. I think that's huge for their offense. That's the reason they focused on him in free agency is because they need to get some explosive runs from the run game. They had like zero last year. It was crazy. And I just think he's going to be used in the passing game more than he has in the past. That's a big part of their game. Andy Reid loves his screen game. I think he's great. I think Kenneth Walker is perfect for that. Durability? If he can stay healthy is like the big question, but I feel like you have to ask that about pretty much everybody in the top 20. Craig, Speaker 2 (15:38) who's our number one if he can stay healthy guy? Speaker 3 (15:41) McCaffrey. Speaker 4 (15:41) Yeah. Speaker 3 (15:42) Every year he's healthy, he's the best player in fantasy or he misses the entire season. Speaker 1 (15:46) If it's not him, it's Mike Evans. And if it's not him, it's George Kittle. So I think it's Speaker 3 (15:49) the Speaker 1 (15:49) substation. It's Speaker 2 (15:50) weird that they just quadruple down on Speaker 1 (15:51) a whole team of those guys while they play next to an electric band. It's just a parlay. It's just a parlay injuries every year. Where is Conspiracy Bill on the substation in the 49ers? You know, Speaker 2 (15:59) ironically, I went to Conspiracy Bill, not me. Conspiracy Bill went on the Wait a Second podcast with Jason and Tyler this week and we talked about it. I'm all in on, you know, it's one of those things where it's like, yeah, I can't be true. Would you want to play with it? Why would it, but you want Speaker 4 (16:15) to live by Speaker 2 (16:16) that? Yeah, no, you wouldn't. You're a, you're a corded headphones guy. Speaker 4 (16:19) Yeah. Speaker 2 (16:20) A Speaker 3 (16:21) little bit of substation parallels there. It's Speaker 2 (16:23) very early on. Everybody's doing these wireless AirPods. I mean, I also don't wear a seatbelt, so I'm not, I'm not the greatest guy. for self-health, but he wears seatbelts. I've been wearing it lately and it's, I don't know, I always felt like it was confining. That's the point. Yeah, I know. It confines you Speaker 4 (16:42) from flying through the windshield. Speaker 2 (16:44) People really made me feel bad about it in a real way. That's because they care about you. Well, then my wife was like, I've been telling you where to sleep out for the 27 years we've been together and you've never listened Speaker 3 (16:54) to me. Speaker 2 (16:54) Sometimes you just need people on the internet. You make Speaker 3 (16:56) a point to note that you can get to Vegas faster than anyone in your car. Yeah. And then you don't Speaker 2 (17:01) want Speaker 3 (17:01) to sleep out. Speaker 1 (17:02) What are you doing? Speaker 2 (17:03) Listen, it is confounding. The duality of man. Speaker 1 (17:07) Ever thought about how lame it would be? to be like dying at 19 miles an hour in the middle of a cryo parking lot like you're trying to like you're doing you've been very healthy the entire time i've known you you're doing all this stuff right and like i just i just fear that you're it's like it's not just wearing it i'm Speaker 2 (17:23) really trying it I would not want to play next to the electromagnetic practice field substation, whatever the fuck Speaker 3 (17:29) it is. Speaker 2 (17:29) The videos where Speaker 4 (17:29) you can hear the buzzing from it. Can they Speaker 3 (17:31) at least put a wall up? I hate that you can see it. Green monster. Yeah. Well, just in that one case. But yeah, can we at least conceal it? I don't know why we have to stare at it. Put a tent over it or something. They Speaker 2 (17:40) were Speaker 3 (17:40) talking about an NFL Speaker 2 (17:41) live yesterday in these grim tones. Like just the most grim thing possible. And I was thinking like if I had been on the show, it would have been like, maybe it's the electromagnetic thing drove him fucking crazy. All of a sudden he's in a trailer park in Ohio. Too much exposure. It's Speaker 4 (17:57) like Speaker 2 (17:57) lead from like the 60s or whatever. Maybe he's just lost it. Okay. So our number one, if he stays healthy guy is still McCaffrey. Yeah. All right. Danny, I could zag on your pick. Speaker 1 (18:10) Yeah. Speaker 2 (18:13) I don't know. Maybe he was just really healthy last year and maybe he's not really meant to be healthy every year. I know. I have concerns about Kenneth Walker. Speaker 4 (18:20) Yeah. Speaker 2 (18:20) Because the rub with him with the Seahawks was always like, we can't count on him for 17 to 20 games. We need Zach Charbonnet. We need insurance. He was a just-in-case-he-gets-hurt guy. Right. Now the Chiefs, who are no stranger to injuries, are now counting on him. But the upside is crazy. Speaker 4 (18:39) That's what I'm chasing, and I admit fully I'm not. I'm not unbiased on this. I just love him. I think he's just so good. Speaker 2 (18:45) When was the last good running back they've had? Exactly. Kareem Hunt, 2017, Speaker 3 (18:49) probably. Kareem Hunt, almost 10 years ago. Yeah. Speaker 4 (18:52) Yeah. Speaker 3 (18:52) I don't know. I agree with DK. It's like, don't overthink it. The Chiefs and Mahomes have a really good running back. Speaker 2 (18:57) Yeah. Speaker 3 (18:58) And there's only like 12 good running backs in fantasy, and I think he's one of them. Speaker 2 (19:01) What do you have for your true love? Speaker 3 (19:03) So I know I kind of just pitched a whole like, don't buy into preseason hype. Get a veteran. Oh, wow. Be safe. Luther Burton, I'm just... Speaker 2 (19:11) It's a recurring theme on your podcast. I don't Speaker 3 (19:13) care that he's got a hurt groin. I don't care about any of that. I completely buy it. I think he's like a Monro St. Brown mixed with Prime Debo. And I don't know. I think when he was going to— Those are some Speaker 4 (19:24) names right there. Speaker 3 (19:25) Whatever. If he was going to come out of college the year before he did, when he was— Like, he wasn't eligible after sophomore year. If he came out that year, he would have been like a top 10 pick. And then the Missouri final season wasn't as great. But on talent alone, I feel like we're not— When you watch him, he looks like one of the best receivers in the league to me. And I fully buy the Ben Johnson thing. There was that big piece on him. I think it was in The Athletic. He's a psycho. I think it's going to be, it's now like McVay, it's Shanahan, and I think it's Ben Johnson. And I'm just, the quotes around Luther Burden are crazy. I think he's going to be healthy week one. And I don't know. I think like next year, he'll probably be like a first round pick or something. Speaker 2 (19:57) It was interesting with the rankings. You would have thought a dunesay would have been the number one bear and the highest thing, but people, Burden seems to have psyched people out. I think the way, I think Speaker 3 (20:07) a dunesay is more high variance. He's getting the deep shots, the balls that Caleb has struggled with a little bit more. Burden is in that Debo sense, but they're like getting him screens, little crossers, reverses. They just get him the ball so much, and when the ball's in his hands, he's one of Speaker 2 (20:21) the Speaker 3 (20:21) best players in the league. Speaker 2 (20:22) We have Burden 24 for receivers, and we have a dunesay 28. Yeah, I'd rather have Burden. Speaker 3 (20:27) I think they're all good. I think like the big three on the Bears are all worth taking. But I do think Luther Burden is very special. If you look at his rookie season, you know, people can go nuts on the stats, but it's like basically the last 15 years, it's him, Odell, and A.J. Brown in terms of like. Speaker 2 (20:42) There's some good long-run stats of them. I Speaker 3 (20:44) think he's very special. And so maybe there's been so much hype. Speaker 1 (20:47) He really means Speaker 3 (20:47) a lot Speaker 1 (20:48) to you. Speaker 3 (20:48) Well. I'm sticking to my guns, even though his groin doesn't work right now. Well, Speaker 1 (20:53) speaking of groins, I'm shocked you didn't have Luther Burden for that. One of these is the Caleb Wilson, there will be no semen left in my body category. And I just thought that was going to be like a shoe. Speaker 3 (21:02) I'm reserving that for Drew Aller when he encorks Speaker 2 (21:05) the Speaker 3 (21:05) 70 orders. Can we? Speaker 3 (21:09) I'm all the way in. There were like Speaker 2 (21:12) four throws he made in the preseason where I was, it was like, oh my God. He made two Speaker 3 (21:18) throws in the last two weeks that very few quarterbacks have made in the last few years. Speaker 2 (21:23) And Speaker 3 (21:23) he's big too. He's huge. Cannon. His whole problem was like footwork and can you read a defense? McCarthy getting his hands dirty. It's already kind of paying off. I think you're getting your hands dirty. I am. I'm getting very dirty. Speaker 2 (21:35) He looks legitimate. I can't stand the Steelers, but he looked legit. Speaker 3 (21:40) You can say what you want about him. You have to admit that he looks way better than anyone thought. Speaker 1 (21:44) Our comp for him coming out of college was if Justin Herbert couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. And, I mean, he broke his ankle. I think if he had improved at the end of Penn State, I think he would have been a way better player. Speaker 2 (21:55) Wasn't he supposed Speaker 1 (21:55) to Speaker 2 (21:55) be a top three pick at one point in his Speaker 1 (21:57) career? There Speaker 2 (21:57) was a time. He's Speaker 1 (21:57) a Speaker 2 (21:57) Heisman Speaker 4 (21:58) favorite. Well, just because of the tools, too. He's a big guy with a big arm. What round did you get Speaker 2 (22:02) him in? Speaker 4 (22:02) Third. Speaker 2 (22:06) Steelers are interesting. Sal and I are doing Thursday. We're doing the two conferences and the win total over-unders. There's some buzz. You know, every year there's two coaches that take over a new team, and it's always pretty easy to identify who the jumps coaches are going to be. Like Dan Quinn two years ago, Vrabel last year. A little harder this year. But McCarthy coming in and doing better than Tomlin did just seems abjectly insane, but might not be insane. Speaker 3 (22:35) No, I think the offense is objectively going to be better. The Speaker 2 (22:37) offense Speaker 3 (22:37) might be Speaker 2 (22:37) way better. Speaker 3 (22:38) Yeah, and I just think the roster's better. They just like Michael Pittman, and I think they drafted really well. I think the tackle they took is good. Jeremy Bernard, the receiver, seems good. They brought in Brisker and Jamel Dean, and their new defensive coordinator, I think, is going to be better than what they had last year. I think they're just a better team. Speaker 1 (22:53) Well, we always joke McCarthy, Sean Payton, and John Harbaugh, just their resumes on paper with wins, losses are almost identical. Speaker 2 (22:59) Especially the John Harbaugh thing where McCarthy's, we've all talked about this on our pods, but McCarthy's considered like this retreat and John Harbaugh is like the savior. And it's like, I don't know. How do we know McCarthy's not a better coach? I'm down on Harbaugh and I'm Speaker 1 (23:15) up on McCarthy. In the name of pronunciation dyslexia, what would happen if I said retread? You guys are fucking silent. I was biting my tongue. Yeah, that's what I thought. Speaker 4 (23:23) What I said Speaker 1 (23:23) is retread. It's retread. Which is Speaker 3 (23:27) okay because I have pronunciation dyslexia. This Speaker 2 (23:28) is like a speech Speaker 3 (23:28) dyslexia off with Speaker 2 (23:30) Pipefitz and I. Speaker 3 (23:30) Pipefitz is now like attacking Bill every time he mispronounces Speaker 2 (23:33) it. Speaker 4 (23:34) Don't treat on me. Speaker 1 (23:36) I'm attacking you. Yeah, don't treat on me. I'm attacking you two for not saying anything to him. Look, I bit my tongue on that. Listen, call Speaker 2 (23:42) me out every time. Speaker 1 (23:43) For some Speaker 2 (23:44) reason I said Speaker 1 (23:44) retread. And it's retread. Scarcity is my favorite one you have. Scarcity. I have them too. I can't say anything right. So it's okay. Speaker 3 (23:52) Scarcity is like a British accent thing maybe he was doing. Speaker 2 (23:54) Oh, yeah. I think Scarcity should have been the way it's pronounced. How about that? Yeah. My one true love. Speaker 3 (24:00) I can't wait because I want to give you credit. Last year, I believe it was Jackson Smith and Jigba was like your big guy last year. Speaker 4 (24:05) No big deal. I kind of poo-pooed that, I Speaker 3 (24:08) think. We were talking about that last night. We were like, Bill, pick JSN. Speaker 2 (24:11) I had some good ones last year. The last two years. What do you think my one true love is this year? If you had to guess. Speaker 4 (24:16) Oh, well, give me, I think it's AJ Brown. What do you think, Craig? He's, he's looking up Twitter. It would make sense for you. Speaker 3 (24:24) Probably, uh, a buka. Speaker 1 (24:27) What Speaker 2 (24:27) do you think? Speaker 1 (24:28) I would have said a buka before the toe injury. Now he was my crazy pills guy last year. Speaker 2 (24:34) My one true love is AJ Brown. I am all the way fucking in on this. He destroyed the Eagles last week. They were Pat's reporters tweeting stuff out like, in all the years I've covered the team, I've never seen anyone dominate the joint practices like AJ Brown just did. This guy's unleashed. It might just be one year. Speaker 3 (25:00) Or it might just be one game when they played the Eagles in Speaker 1 (25:02) practice. No, stop. You know I'm not just being like, oh, Patriots. I hate the Patriots. He's my crazy pills guy. I don't understand why everyone's not in on A.J. Brown. He Speaker 2 (25:14) was in the worst possible situation with this weird Eagles offense that used him. They won 11 games. They used him. Stop it. He was one of the worst picks in fantasy. Stop Speaker 1 (25:24) it. Speaker 2 (25:24) So frustrating. I'm not going to stop it. Danny, would you go 50 % completely used wrong with him? Speaker 4 (25:31) I think he just checked out, which is what worries me. Stop, stop, Speaker 1 (25:34) stop. He did check out. No, but Speaker 2 (25:36) that's the point. I think he have Speaker 1 (25:37) checked out. Because they were using him right. Exactly. And I think it's George Pickens this year. He's Speaker 4 (25:42) on Speaker 1 (25:42) a winning Speaker 4 (25:42) team. They're like contenders to go to the Super Bowl. He Speaker 2 (25:45) wants the ball. He wants the offense built around him. And he's going to get it now with the New England Patriots. Speaker 1 (25:51) I 100 % agree. Receivers are more like NBA players than football players. They want the ball. They couldn't get him the ball. And it's George Pickens where he's a head case that gets his head on straight. Drake May is a better overall passer than Jalen Hurts. You have going from Kevin Petullo running the offense in Philly to Josh McDaniels in New England, who doesn't have to compare him to Randy Moss in 07, but Devonta Adams got like 1,500 yards at 31 years old to Josh McDaniels and the Raiders. And you look at this Eagles team. Wait, you left out two other key points. Speaker 2 (26:17) Mike Frabel, who he loves. Obsessed with him. grew up as a Patriot fan. Like this is like, I've, I got divorced with the wife I never liked. And now I'm dating somebody and I've lost 20 pounds and I have a new haircut, new clothes. And I'm just so fucking happy. This is AJ Brown right now. Anyway, keep going. Speaker 1 (26:38) No, it's fine. There's just an, an out. There was an easy layup there that we're all going to just pass over. But the, what was the layup? No, it's okay. Yeah. Well, he just went from, it's fine. But the, Speaker 1 (26:55) Anyway, no, but to your point about using A.J. Brown around the offense, just powering through. But if you look at the top 120 receivers, anyway, my pro football focus stats, but the 120 top receivers last year, if you just look at how often they were in the slot, A.J. Brown was last. Literally the dead last slot, right? Speaker 2 (27:13) I Speaker 1 (27:13) would say he was used Speaker 2 (27:13) incorrectly last year by them. The guy should get 8 to 12 touches a game. Craig's not... Well, you might be old enough to remember this when Randy Moss came to the Patriots. Speaker 3 (27:22) Yeah, yeah. I'm familiar with that season. How Speaker 2 (27:23) old were you? You were like 12. I Speaker 1 (27:26) was 13. Speaker 3 (27:26) Yeah, you remember. Speaker 1 (27:27) You remember the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl? Yeah, I watched that game. Speaker 2 (27:30) We got Randy Moss, I think for a fourth round pick from the Raiders. Yeah. And everybody had decided Randy Moss was no longer redeemable as a professional athlete. And he... mailed it in with the Raiders. And meanwhile, if you go back and you look at that Raiders team, he's playing with crap QBs, crap situation. And he's just unleashed when he gets to the Pats. I really think this is going to happen with AJ Brown. And for some reason, everybody's talking about with the Pats, like, oh, the schedule is going to be so much harder. But the Pats are just distinctly better than they were last year. Depth is probably the biggest issue, but their offensive line is going to be better. It's the second year of the coaching staff. And they have A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. They didn't, their best receiver last year was Diggs who played 35 snaps a game. Right? They just traded Keishon Booty who was their, their second best receiver. They basically traded him for a backup safety and a six round pick. Like they had terrible receivers last year. And I just think he's going to be awesome. And I don't know if it's going to last more than a year. It might just be like, it might be one year and then next year he's unhappy. He wants an extension, like whatever. This year he's going to be happy. I agree with that. I Speaker 1 (28:37) totally agree. Speaker 3 (28:38) You shouldn't say that your crazy pills guy is also A.J. Brown, Speaker 4 (28:41) but in the other direction. Yeah, I Speaker 3 (28:43) had A.J. Brown crazy pills. I Speaker 4 (28:45) sit next to these two guys all day long, and they just can't stop talking about A.J. Brown. I'm just like, do you remember what happened last year at all? He was one of the worst guys to have in fantasy. He was the most frustrating player to have in fantasy. He was Speaker 2 (28:56) absolutely miserable and seemed like he was trying to get traded during the season. He was reading books on the Speaker 4 (29:01) sideline. He was completely checked out. I just think we're kind of like... Selectively forgetting that. But why would Speaker 1 (29:07) he be checked out again? That's the point. He was saying to prove. Speaker 4 (29:10) Yeah, but I mean, again, they were on a competing team that had a chance to be like a Super Bowl contender. But they couldn't get him the ball. Speaker 1 (29:16) The offense was so limited. He literally tweeted, to quote A.J. Brown, quoting Jesus, if you're not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw, don't make a scene, shrug your shoulders, and be on your way. Speaker 4 (29:25) That's not the guy I want to bank my entire season on. That's all I'm saying. So Speaker 3 (29:29) you're saying that the fear is if he doesn't get targeted enough, he'll just bail. Speaker 4 (29:32) Yes. Speaker 1 (29:33) Well, they traded a first for Speaker 2 (29:35) him. DK counter. He's going to get targeted enough. I know, probably. They're Speaker 4 (29:38) going to Speaker 2 (29:38) throw him the ball all the Speaker 4 (29:39) time. I'm pushing back a little bit on the hype. That's all. I feel like I'm taking... Is it Speaker 2 (29:43) hype, though? I don't feel like there's been enough Speaker 4 (29:44) hype. I Speaker 2 (29:44) don't think there's any hype. He just hates... No,