The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

The Bill Simmons Podcast

Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House dive into the annual AFC over/unders podcast, analyzing win totals for each team in the American Foo

Key takeaways

• The AFC is undergoing a generational shift between veteran quarterbacks like Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow versus emerging stars such as Herbert and Mayfield.

Main topics

• AFC quarterback rankings and legacy
• Team win total projections (over/unders)

Notable quotes

"I can't believe how good Josh Allen is. I can't believe it."

Conclusion

The podcast concludes with a mix of optimism and skepticism about the AFC's

Transcript preview

Speaker 3 (0:05) The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find a new episode of The Rewatchables coming tomorrow, Monday. We're going to put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably early, mid-afternoon ET. It's a good movie. You've heard of it. That's all I'm going to say. We didn't announce the movie this week. Sometimes you don't have to. So that's coming. If you missed... The Ringer fantasy football shows live draft that we did on Friday. It was one of the funniest three hour runs that we've had at the Ringer. There's people screaming at each other. There was people ganging up on each other. Sal made about 25 off the cuff jokes. People were eating as they were trying to draft. People were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing, ripping. It was just everything was in play. Bad coordination. temper tantrums, you name it. And, uh, it all peaked when all of us colluded to completely screw over Danny Heifetz who thought he was going to get cute near the end and get a good QB late. And then we just took all the QBs and now his QBs, I think are Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and somebody, Michael Penix Jr. Those are his three QBs for the Ringer fantasy football draft. So it was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft. Great job by everybody. Great job by the ringer fantasy guys as well. So that happened. I was going to do a big topper for this episode about the Red Sox Yankees series, but it basically came down to two plays because they split the doubleheader yesterday. The Red Sox lose one nothing on Friday because Raffaella doesn't listen to third base coach. Tags anyway. Thinks Bellinger can't throw him out. Throws him out. Red Sox lose one nothing. But that was a great old school. Yankee stadium, Red Sox, Yankees, uh, pennant race game. I love that one. Didn't like the one as much today where it felt like it was going to be another one, nothing to one type game. And, uh, Raffaella, um, ends up making this great catch with a guy on first base and somehow the first base umpire who is just atrocious all weekend, just really atrocious. Um, calls calls it as a bounce catch so then there's not enough on the instant replay to overrule it because raphael is basically bending his glove over and uh and that opened the floodgates and the yankees won this series three to one and now the red sox are in a lot of trouble for the playoffs because they really need to get to the four seed i've loved this red sox season a little weird today they brought in roman anthony and um trevor story from worcester and sent down anthony sigler and Mickey Gasper, who was the hottest left-handed hitter on the team and the hottest hitter maybe in the league, and sent him down. He comes back in 10 days, but I hope it didn't mess with the juju. Very fun Red Sox season regardless, but always hate losing the Yankees. Can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one World Series in the last 26 years. I looked it up. 2009, Obama's first term. Year one of Obama's first term. Last time they won 17 years ago. So congrats on your win in August. We'll see in the playoffs guys. Football, Cousin Sal and I did AFC, NFC overrunners. We taped them all at once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice, we're wearing the exact same clothes and Joe House is still going to be there as our third person. And I had five locks that I loved. For the NFC. And I think I have two for this one. You're about to listen to for the AFC. I like the NFC more, but FanDuel is still giving everyone five 50 % PBTs that you can put basically on anything up until the end of August. And so if you like any of the locks you're about to hit, or if you liked anything from the last podcast, like Atlanta under seven and a half or Tampa over eight and a half, I think we had five that I really liked. Dallas over Seattle over. And then what was the other under I had? Washington under. If you like any of those, throw those into the little Fando thing because that was very nice of them to do that for us. All right. Without further ado, the AFC over-unders for win totals with me and the Cousins next. We're going to take a break and then bring in Pearl Jib. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday Ticket. Man, I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday, all in one place, and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple years ago because it's the best. New users, that might include you, can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments. of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL sending ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. The American Football Conference. Speaker 1 (5:47) Curious, why do we do this not on Netflix? This is your conference. We did mine. The National Speaker 3 (5:54) Football Conference. The American Football Speaker 1 (5:56) Conference. Speaker 3 (5:56) More Speaker 1 (5:57) patriotic. Oh, I see. Okay. National sounds Speaker 3 (5:59) a little more sinister. The Speaker 1 (6:01) National Football Conference. You made the right decision. Okay, Speaker 3 (6:04) AFC. Old guard, new guard. Old guard, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Burrow. They're kind of here. Speaker 1 (6:13) New Speaker 3 (6:13) guard, Drake May, Herbert. Bo Nix and good Trevor Lawrence, who we've only known for three months. Old guard coaches, Andy Reed, Harbaugh, Tomlin, McDermott. Two of them are gone. Plus Belichick. He's gone to new guard coaches, Vrabel, even though he's a little older to Miko Ryan's and Cohen and maybe Kubiak too. Plus you have Peyton and Jim, Jim Harbaugh somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year? Or this is a, the old guard reclaims everything here. Speaker 1 (6:47) Interesting. I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four. And it's been the top four for a half a decade now, Speaker 3 (6:57) right? Speaker 1 (6:58) Yeah. I'm not ready to move on from the old guard. Speaker 3 (7:03) So you're old guard. I'm thinking Speaker 1 (7:04) Mahomes specifically, and that's Speaker 3 (7:07) sort of the part of the bracket. All right. Where are you? I still believe in, I'm like a half and half. Speaker 1 (7:15) I'm Speaker 3 (7:16) like half from the old guard. I think, especially Lamar this year, if he's just not going to run in the same way anymore, Speaker 1 (7:22) Burrow Speaker 3 (7:23) is an all-time prove-it year where he's had three good ones and three eh. But we'll see what happens. I got a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino watch? By my count, maybe three. Burrow for early success. Durability probably rules them out. Lamar, in-season dominance, like a playoff production. And then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino Watch is like the pressure of, oh shit, I might not actually win a Super Bowl in my entire career. I guess it would be Marino Watch. I kind of like that. What about your guy? My guy's like 23. Speaker 1 (7:57) Yeah, but he made it in the second year. I know. Well, he repeated the Marino Speaker 3 (8:02) thing. Yeah. Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially on Marino Watch? I like the premise of this. Speaker 1 (8:08) I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do. Not for me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. Well, you tried to say he's the best regular season quarterback. I Speaker 3 (8:18) know. Speaker 1 (8:18) I got checkmated. But it's true. It's like... And he's put up big Speaker 3 (8:22) points in playoff games, too. Speaker 1 (8:24) Yeah. He's put up big points in whatever team he's playing. Yeah. In Josh Allen playoff games, the defense is allowed 32 points per game. And the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is. which sucks because that's how you're going to end your season. But this guy is as consistent as it gets. And we'll get to the Bills in a second. Speaker 3 (8:43) Shades of going Collinsworth there for a second. Oh, man. Speaker 1 (8:46) We got an asshole in the Bills. I just can't believe how good Josh Speaker 3 (8:50) Allen is. I can't believe it. House, are you pro or anti-Josh Allen superstar? Oh, super pro. Speaker 2 (8:57) I love Josh Allen. Speaker 3 (8:59) I like him too. I don't like the situation he's in this season. And we're going to do the AFCs first. Buffalo, 10.5 is the over-under. Minus 135 for the division. The Patriots were 14-3 last year, somehow not the favorites. Super Bowl, 10-1 for the Bills. Minus 340 playoffs, 5-1, one seed. 13-plus wins, you go plus 250. Under 8.5 is plus 320. Speaker 3 (9:26) Where are you standing on this one? Do you believe Joe Brady? My what if for this one. We're doing what ifs for every team. Losing McDermott for Joe Brady, what if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse? Interesting. Because McDermott was allegedly a defensive coach. They were not good defensively last Speaker 1 (9:45) year. Speaker 3 (9:45) It Speaker 1 (9:45) might Speaker 3 (9:45) screw Speaker 1 (9:45) things up. I don't know if it could be much worse. I don't know as far as clutch situations go. my money's always on them to outscore the other team. Like, I just don't. Like, when we do these over-unders, first of all, the AFC used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to win it, and then for years we took the Speaker 3 (10:03) Bills. Speaker 1 (10:03) And now we have to think about it, and it sucks. But you have to think in terms of consistency, right? And this guy hasn't missed a game since 2018. They have six straight seasons with 11-plus wins. So why am I going to take two wins away from them? And it's all because he pulls off David Blaine-type magic tricks in the red zone. They're phenomenal down low. They will always score. Speaker 3 (10:28) So you'd have him in the 10-win club, which I talked about in part one. Yeah. Where it's just like McVay, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10-win club guy. Right. So, Alan, you would say, I really have tried to zag against it last year, too. I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. Speaker 1 (10:47) If Speaker 3 (10:48) you're ever going to do it, this is the year. Right? New coach. We have no idea if he's good. The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who, as we talked about in part one, all the Bears fans were ready to drive to the airport. Offensive line is good. Although McGovern's already hurt. Speaker 3 (11:05) I don't know. They overhauled a really crappy D, but I'm not. It's kind of like they painted a crappy house a different crappy color. And they're like, Speaker 1 (11:13) look, I painted the house. Bradley Chubb's a decent pickup. I know they got the second rounder. He wasn't good last year, though. Clemson kid, actually. TJ Parker. So they're helping good things with that. They'll have decent pass rush with Rousseau and Chubb. But I don't know. They're favored in 13 games. The Pats are favored in 10. I gave them 11 wins. They won 12 last year. I Speaker 3 (11:35) don't think one player does more work for the over-unders for a team than him year after year. Than Allen. If you just put... Pick anyone who's a slightly above average quarterback. Let's put Bo Nix on the bills. Are they a six Speaker 1 (11:51) -win team? So if you did wins above replacement for a football quarterback? We have it. We have it with the spreads. He has Speaker 3 (11:57) the Speaker 1 (11:57) highest if you replace him with the backup. Speaker 3 (12:00) I had their roster. I had 21 points, which puts them fringe playoff territory. I only had two guys that got points on defense. And one of them is Benford, who I don't even... Speaker 1 (12:12) Right. Speaker 3 (12:12) Not even positive. Their big strengths are Allen, James Cook, who was incredible last year. And then the offensive line. Speaker 1 (12:19) Yeah. I Speaker 3 (12:19) would say they have below average receivers top to bottom. Right. Even the Patriots have better receivers than them now. They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough. Their first five games are reprehensibly hard. at Houston to start Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later after Houston kicks the shit out of them, Speaker 1 (12:41) Chargers Speaker 3 (12:42) week three, Pats week four at home, and then at the Rams Monday Night Football week five. So what does that record have to be for you coming out of that? Texans, Lions, Chargers, Pats, Rams. Speaker 3 (12:57) Three and two. It feels like three and two. Give Speaker 1 (12:59) me Speaker 3 (12:59) three and two. Then it gets a little easier. Speaker 1 (13:01) But you know, it's weird with this 11 plus win teams. Like, what was it, two years ago? Was it two or three years ago where they had to win their last six to make the playoffs? Yeah. Speaker 3 (13:10) Like, Speaker 1 (13:10) they always just seem to find a way. It's just ridiculous how they do it. And yeah, I don't know. The schedule, they almost always have a first place schedule. It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots extra games, even with a first-place schedule, at Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle, at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh. I'd rather have the Pats games. Speaker 3 (13:36) Yeah, it's one of the big things people are discrediting the Pats with was how easy the schedule was last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either. Right. It's like there's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody, but some people think it's like a top-five easy schedule again. Speaker 1 (13:53) Yeah. Speaker 3 (13:55) They have five really hard road games. They only play three games indoors, the Bills. I always like when they're indoors. But the quarterbacks they go against, Drake made twice, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb, and Nix. Speaker 1 (14:11) Pretty Speaker 3 (14:12) tough. The best thing they have from a schedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second this year. Which I'm still... House, Speaker 2 (14:20) you believe in the net rest? You've always enjoyed Speaker 3 (14:21) it. Speaker 2 (14:22) Yeah, no, I think it matters, for sure. I wonder Speaker 3 (14:25) if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression. Of all Speaker 1 (14:29) the metrics, I put net rest like third or fourth. I know they're supposed to be at the top, but turnover differential, that's way more important to me. Like the plus minus on that. I don't know. You know what I like? You know what my advanced stats Speaker 3 (14:42) are? Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things. Really? I'm not convinced Speaker 1 (14:52) the Speaker 3 (14:52) Bills can stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. Speaker 1 (14:56) Yeah. Speaker 3 (14:56) And the schedule is harder. You're going under. I am. I'm going, I'm a slight under. I'm 10. It's not a lock. I don't love it. But I think their schedule is awful and they really can't afford an injury to Allen or Cook. No doubt. And I have real questions about DJ Moore. You know, because people are like, DJ Moore. Why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore? There's two teams now Speaker 1 (15:22) that have been delighted to move off him. He doesn't stretch the field for sure. And that was the problem with the Bills. They didn't have like a burner, right? To get their very low percentage. The other thing to worry about with the Bills is we talked about these quarterbacks who just stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30. I think I just saw in May. What if that stops? Your dad Speaker 3 (15:42) too. Speaker 1 (15:42) That's it. Yeah. Your dad. Speaker 3 (15:44) Turning 30, there's some not running anymore signs. The counter would be he's superhuman. That's Speaker 1 (15:50) it. Speaker 3 (15:50) Unlike Drake May, where I'm terrified he's going to get hurt. Right. Allen, you're terrified the other guy's going to get hurt. I'm a slight under. I don't love it. I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10-win club. I have 11. New England Patriots, 10.5 is the over-under. Division plus 135. Speaker 3 (16:11) stupefying to me that they have the same, that the Buffalo is just much better for a division odd bet than the Pats. I don't get it. Super Bowl 17 to one. Number one seed, 8-1, 12 plus wins plus 220. And if Speaker 2 (16:27) you want to short them under 7.5, it's plus 380. Speaker 3 (16:30) My what if, talked about it on Tuesday. What if A.J. Brown is a 2007 Moss-like super boost for this team? We're not asking for five awesome seasons from him. Just give us one fuck you season. It seems like he wants to do it. Speaker 1 (16:45) There's a world where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to... AJ Brown. And what was his over-under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12 plus, it's ridiculous odds. Their Speaker 3 (16:57) deep threat last year was Booty, who I really liked and I thought Houston made a smart deal with him. We traded him for a seventh round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Diggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. And then I wouldn't trust one other guy Speaker 1 (17:15) in the team. I wanted to come on here and be like, This is it. The ultimate regression team. They played Alcorn State 14 times last year. They're going to go 3-14. And I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better on paper at least than they were last year. They're definitely better talent-wise Speaker 3 (17:34) than they were last year. But with a record Speaker 1 (17:35) with fewer wins. Like with four fewer wins. I think that's a definite possibility. Well, they went 14-3. So Speaker 3 (17:41) if they have three less wins, they're still 11-6 and hitting this over. A couple things just to... I don't think it mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule, they still have Drake man, a rookie deal, Speaker 1 (17:52) which Speaker 3 (17:53) is the biggest advantage you can have in football right now, if they're not going to use the money to then give Christian Gonzalez a top five cornerback, you know, for some reason, the low volume crafts history of, uh, I don't want to say cheapness, so I'll just say cheapness. Yeah. Um, his history of cheapness. a pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here. And they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they can push, but they never actually seem to spend it. These Speaker 1 (18:22) owners are hurting. You don't understand. Some of them are spending only $140 on it. Oh my Speaker 3 (18:27) goodness. Go sell 5 % of the team for $1 billion, right? The team's probably worth 10. Speaker 1 (18:34) Right. Speaker 3 (18:35) But so the Gonzalez thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake man, a rookie deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach, OC, and DC from last year. Speaker 1 (18:45) Right. Speaker 3 (18:46) So they actually have continuity. My fears are because the O-line is going to be better. Will Campbell is healthy now. Speaker 1 (18:53) We got the kid from Utah, right? They Speaker 3 (18:55) have a little depth. They brought in Bayard from the Bears for a little safety. Veteran guy in the back. He's good. The reasons to short them, you mentioned the regression, the Vrabel scandal. What happened? Is that going to have any sort of carryover to how he performs this season? I have no idea. And then the Gonzalez contract makes me nervous. How about this? Speaker 1 (19:17) I have two words for you. Maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? What's cover six? Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60 % against Drake maybe, and it was effective. It's essentially taking away, it's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under, oh, read about cover six because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against. Oh, they did Speaker 3 (19:44) that thing. They're rushing three or four, but dropping everyone back. And there's Speaker 1 (19:47) no Speaker 3 (19:47) way to throw. And Speaker 1 (19:48) they did Speaker 3 (19:48) it Speaker 1 (19:48) in their second regular season game against them. Yeah. Speaker 3 (19:51) And Speaker 1 (19:51) it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this. I Speaker 3 (19:54) didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Drake Bay and last year's Patriots. Yeah. I Speaker 1 (19:59) wonder if anyone else would pick up on that. Well, you Speaker 3 (20:02) know what's going to happen this year. A.J. Brown will just run down the field and get open. And then he'll throw it Speaker 1 (20:05) to them. Speaker 3 (20:05) He's Speaker 1 (20:05) going to Speaker 3 (20:05) say goodbye to Speaker 1 (20:06) the six. Speaker 3 (20:06) And they got Dobbs, too. I mean. AJ Brown and Dobbs versus what they had last year. It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the either second or third round, Eli Raritan. Yeah. Who's this like just beast blocker and they have just more options than they did last year with. Notre Dame. Speaker 1 (20:28) Yeah. Big guy. I Speaker 3 (20:30) have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. And. They play the following shit QBs. Rodgers, Cousins, Murray, Geno twice, Willis twice. So you figure with Buffalo in the past, that's four wins against the Jets and Dolphins. That was the hard part with the Bills. Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots. Not a lot, though. Over 10 and a half. Over 10 and a half wins. I'm going under 10 Speaker 1 (20:59) and a half to 10. I think the Bills have 11. The Patriots have 10. Speaker 3 (21:03) Okay. Speaker 1 (21:04) And I am not acknowledging that. I Speaker 3 (21:05) have the Pats at 11 and the Bills at 10. I'm Speaker 1 (21:07) not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. I mean, you and Hedge. Did you make money from the Seahawks at least? I did. That I'll acknowledge. Okay. But I mean, you guys tore it. He made it in the third last time and Dak Prescott, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to going to Six Flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top. And then you're on the whatever free fall and you see the drop and you shit your pants and you come back down to the bottom. You can only play who's in front of you. Speaker 3 (21:37) I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams. Speaker 1 (21:41) But Speaker 3 (21:41) he Speaker 1 (21:41) got scared. He got very, very scared in the Super Bowl. I don't think he was healthy. I know you keep saying that. Speaker 3 (21:46) I think if they lose to the Chargers in round one. Speaker 1 (21:52) In round one. Yeah, last year. Oh, last week. Speaker 2 (21:55) They Speaker 3 (21:55) go 14 Speaker 2 (21:56) -3. They lose to Speaker 3 (21:57) the Chargers. Everybody said, oh, they're young. Oh, they added. Oh, look out for this team. Speaker 1 (22:01) But Speaker 3 (22:01) the further they went, it actually makes people not like them as much for this year. Yeah. Speaker 1 (22:05) Wow. Speaker 3 (22:06) I feel the same way about them as I did with the Bears. I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. Speaker 1 (22:11) I Speaker 3 (22:12) don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they ended up last year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have... Caleb and May in these rookie deals. And, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have. Speaker 1 (22:26) So I Speaker 3 (22:26) hope they take advantage of it. I mean, Speaker 1 (22:28) we're completely going to discount. We're going to get to the Texans later, but two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs. Speaker 3 (22:36) I'm not discounting it. I really 95 % sure he was hurt. And that's where I've landed. I watched him all year and he didn't look remotely. He Speaker 1 (22:45) wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw, he said in an interview, it was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. I wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses. Also, our left Speaker 3 (22:53) tackle was Speaker 1 (22:54) playing on one Speaker 3 (22:54) leg. Yeah. Speaker 1 (22:56) That's bad. Speaker 3 (22:58) New York Jets, over five and a half. Division 18 to one. Playoffs, seven to one. Ten plus wins, eight to one. Last year, they were three and 14. They're six to one. They have the worst record this year. Sal, they made... Two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010. Yeah. Way back when with Rex Ryan. I mean, two straight. I think there's been in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone back to back dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row. Right. And the Chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four. And then... They have not made the playoffs since. Not even a wild card. Surely Speaker 1 (23:49) they've come close. It's Speaker 3 (23:50) a 14 Speaker 1 (23:51) -team playoffs Speaker 3 (23:53) every year in a 32-team league. It's Speaker 1 (23:55) basically 45 % chance. Yeah. Never did it. Oh, New York, small market. How are they supposed to... If I would it for you, Speaker 3 (24:02) what if the Speaker 1 (24:03) Jets Speaker 3 (24:03) aren't dumb enough to tank this Speaker 1 (24:06) season? Speaker 3 (24:07) What if they're just competitive enough that they go 7-10? Speaker 1 (24:11) Yeah. And Speaker 3 (24:12) now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple games, get their fans excited. And then all of a sudden the merry-go-round stops and there's four quarterbacks available. They get none of them. Do Speaker 1 (24:23) you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine. They're okay with tanking. Like to me, it's like, I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa only to lose. But yeah. This is a defensive specialist that they brought in, and they did not have one interception over 17 games. And it seemed like they Speaker 3 (24:46) quit in the last month of the season. That was one of... How many teams just felt like that last month, like they were just like, I'm ready to go home? Speaker 1 (24:54) You can't have the defense quit on you if you're Aaron Glenn. It's like that 92 years, no one's had no interception. He's a specialist, and they brought him back. It's like you hiring a painter, and the guy comes out the first day and paints your dog. and the hedges. And you're like, all right, we'll just come back tomorrow. You'll hit some walls. It'll be fine. I don't understand. Speaker 3 (25:14) Well, apparently he had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC and the DC. Hired Joe House's guy, Frank Rake. That's not my guy. Your guy. You said he was the best coach in a conference three years ago. Speaker 2 (25:31) I never said it. You Speaker 3 (25:32) 100 Speaker 1 (25:32) % said it. Speaker 2 (25:34) I do Speaker 1 (25:34) remember something about that. He definitely Speaker 3 (25:35) said it. We joked about it and then text-threaded and he got fired in like week 11 of his first season. Not House. Speaker 1 (25:40) Frank Reich. Frank Reich. Speaker 3 (25:41) Yes, Speaker 1 (25:42) yeah. Speaker 3 (25:42) Now House of Us survived. Speaker 3 (25:45) The good news for the Jets, they loaded up in the draft. Speaker 1 (25:48) Three first-round picks. The only team, right? Speaker 3 (25:51) And they had the 50th pick. So they had four of the top 50. Speaker 1 (25:56) The Speaker 3 (25:57) bad news is the reason they had two of those three first-rounders is because they traded their two best players on defense for the first-rounders. Speaker 1 (26:05) Got Speaker 3 (26:05) to factor that in. But they are going to be better, and their offensive line is going to be better. It might actually be like a top-12 offensive line, maybe. Speaker 3 (26:16) Sal, I have them as a slide over. Yeah, I do too. You have six wins? Yeah. Right now I have them at seven and 10 just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere. Speaker 1 (26:25) I had six and 11. The schedule's kind to them. Four of their first eight are against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders. So they could be four and four at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story. Titans Speaker 3 (26:38) is week one. Yeah. Speaker 1 (26:39) And Speaker 3 (26:39) then they go Packers, at Lions, at Bears. It's the Robert Saligan. And if the Titans were good. Speaker 1 (26:44) Yeah. Speaker 3 (26:45) you'd be like, oh, that could be 0-4. And now what do you do? Speaker 1 (26:49) Do you Speaker 3 (26:49) fire Aaron Glenn? Do you say, fuck it, now let's go for the number one pick? But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason. And I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans. Speaker 1 (26:59) We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans-Jets game, I think. Let's not let ourselves do that. Speaker 3 (27:08) We talked about this, tried to remember it. midway through the year, we're like, let's remember this for next year. The dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans-Jets game is a candidate for what could be the dumbest result. I looked through them. But, you know, Speaker 1 (27:30) if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with Geno, so Geno went from Seattle. to the Raiders, just pathetic. Jets offensive line is probably somewhere in between there. And probably enough to win six games. Gino was an Speaker 3 (27:48) outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block for him and he was running for his life. So he's either washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play Malik Willis twice, Cleveland, Cam Speaker 2 (28:00) Ward, Cousins, Brissette, Kyler. Speaker 3 (28:03) Yeah. maybe can win six, seven of those. I have them at seven and 10. I don't feel great about it. Um, I wouldn't both have Speaker 1 (28:11) the jets over my God. I know. I just think it's too low. I mean, Speaker 3 (28:15) what were they last year? They're three and 14. But they traded their two best guys midway through the season. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of the craziest things ever, not having an interception. Speaker 1 (28:30) Okay. Speaker 3 (28:30) Miami Dolphins is the last one. They have a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mack. That's it. He's done spinning the discs in Miami. The clubs are quiet today. He landed on his feet. Yeah. He's clubbing it out here. Clubbing it out in San Diego. Speaker 3 (28:49) Miami was 7 and 10 last year. The over-under is 3.5. Speaker 1 (28:56) I had to double-check that. I'm like, oh, yeah, you're right. 7.5. 15-1 to make the playoffs. Speaker 3 (29:01) Worst record, they're plus 220. Speaker 1 (29:03) Good. If Speaker 3 (29:04) you want to zag and bet on them to go 8-9, it's plus 700. I'm going to list their highest-paid players for you this year. Speaker 1 (29:12) Have Speaker 3 (29:13) you seen this graphic? They're somewhere else. Tua, 55.4 million. Not on the team. Tyreek, 28.2. Not on the team. Waddle 23.2 doesn't play for them. Jalen Ramsey 20.9. Not in the team. Fitzpatrick 13. Nope. Zach Seeler, 11.4 on the team. Speaker 2 (29:35) We got Speaker 3 (29:36) one. Welcome. Bradley Chubb, 11. Nope. And Armstead, 10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying. You said Speaker 1 (29:44) Waddle too? Speaker 3 (29:45) Waddle, yeah. Seven of the eight are not on the team. They're paying seven of those guys not to play for them. Six Speaker 1 (29:50) players, $162 million. The guys are not playing. Malik Willett, they're paying Malik something. Speaker 3 (29:56) I just gave you eight guys. Malik. What was he, 20? But they could spread it out. Speaker 1 (30:03) Oh, okay. Yeah. Oh, man. So the only case for them is Speaker 3 (30:09) if you feel like they