2026 NBA Draft Winners and Losers With Joe House and J. Kyle Mann

The Bill Simmons Podcast

In this episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Joe House and J. Kyle Mann analyze the 2026 NBA Draft, highlighting the draft's predictability due to advanced scouting and data. They discuss standout picks like A.J. DeBanza, Darren Peterson, and Boozer, while critiquing strategic missteps such as the Washington Wizards' Trae Young contract and the Milwaukee Bucks' trade involving Brandon Burris.

Key takeaways

• The 2026 NBA Draft was highly predictable, with teams making logical, data-driven selections.
• A.J. DeBanza was praised for his physical maturity, scoring efficiency, and two-way potential despite being only 19.
• The Utah Jazz' selection of Darren Peterson was lauded as a strong fit, with comparisons to young Kobe Bryant.

Transcript preview

This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by PayPal. You know a clutch move and you see one. A no look pass, a buzzer beater, a big steel. Well, imagine if your wallet could pull off moves like that. That, my friends, is PayPal. Right now you can find offers from hundreds of brands like Sony, all birds and Viator and save offers before you check out. Earn unlimited rewards. Plus you can add those rewards. on top of credit card points. Now that is clutch. Download the PayPal app today. Save those offers. Start scoring rewards and exclusions apply. See PayPal.com slash rewards terms credit card points subject to issuers terms and conditions. The Bill Simmons podcast live on Netflix for my favorite day of the year. It's pretty sad for my favorite day of the year. It's pretty sad that this is my favorite day of the year. I'm with Jay Kyle man from the ringer. I'm with the deliriously happy and possibly drunk Joe House. had the number one pick and took A. J. de Bonsa, we'll talk about that later. We have a little gimmick. It's just for the live Netflix show only. We're gonna have some voting. They started this poll thing that they did during a star search and we have borrowed the technology and we're gonna be able to be able to if you're watching this live on Netflix you're gonna be able to vote on stuff including houses blood alcohol level. I wanted to mention we put up a new rewatchels on Monday night we did. Hell movies had a great time with Sean Finnessy and Chris Ryan. We have another one coming on Thursday, The Good Sun, you can hear Houses, Golf Podcast, Fairway Rolling, and you can listen and watch Kyle Mann on the Ringer NBA show. Okay guys. Winners and losers, and I have mostly winners. And I'm gonna start here, Jay Kyle Mann is a guy who works on our Ringer NBA guide and does lots of YouTube clips and studies and obsesses over the draft. The draft's become less and less fun. decade as everybody just makes logical smart decisions and nobody messes up and we have no monkey wrenches and no wild cards and no great players falling I had the first 12 picks regardless of the order I thought were the 12 best guys in the draft there were no stumbles at all is this just where we are now we have too much intelligence how do you explain this into the point where even I just feel like it's created these little guardrails for if you have a wild take you know I just feel like we we have so much more numbers justification you know scouting has improved the information is improved across the board I feel like we have fewer and fewer just kind of like good old boy network GM kind of front office people out there I mean there's maybe one or two left but they're dwindling by the day yeah but I went through and I was doing my grades on this and I was like I was like I was like It was hard to really ding anybody hard for anything. I was like, I don't really have any like, D's or F's, you know? It's there aren't any like Kentel Woods or what was the, what was the Juco guy that you guys took? Keeken Brown or not, or what was his name? Kendrick Brown. Kendrick Brown, yeah, yeah, we don't get those. How about the 20 guys? 20 years ago, I just feel like the kings would have taken nayment and we would have been like, what are they doing? you don't care because your team ended up with the number one pick and by the way my team is about to kick the pick at number 27 the Celtics so about a tumultuous week I don't know if we're taking a team psychiatrist or an actual player but we're you gonna experience my reaction live house your reaction we had a lot of little birdies telling us that A. J. was going to DC for the last month and that's what happened but were you scared and the moment of truth that that wasn't gonna happen? No no and You have to just just keep the faith let all of the stuff happen out on the periphery that everybody talk their talk I do want to set up right away my blood alcohol content level is is at equilibrium I'm at at 0.0 no booze or booser no booze or booser no booze or booser I stand with my Mormon brother AJD I welcome him to Washington DC me and AJ the band where no booze tonight because we're setting the path for a very clean start to our careers. Well that's not the house I know and Chris Ryan stepped up for you last night because we brought him on for the it wasn't an emergency podcast because we knew Janus was getting traded so we called it an urgent gathering it was being CR and barrier and Sierra come home from dinner and it had a couple cocktails. Yeah, CR. He was a lively CR and he was especially, oh, oh, here we go. only time I'll do this during our live Netflix trap. The pick is in. They're showing Isaiah. Adam. Adam Silver is on the clock and he's going to tell us that the Celtics are taking. Oh. Houston forward, Kyle, man. What do you think of that pick? Sennac? Yeah. He's somebody that I've been a little more skeptical on because I said I thought he was kind of in this. Well, caveat. He's a guy that he's one of those conditions. He's a guy that he's one kind of dependent guys. It's like if he went to a team with like poor developmental structure I would be worried about him because I'd worried that his offense was just in this weird purgatory that needed to be straightened out where he was like a hypothetical stretch four who really only got ran he really didn't attack the rim even if he got run off the line he would take these like long twos that weren't pretty he had to kind of be spoon fed any offense that he got but he's very big he's very athletic he has long he has long I like them in college. I trust the Celtics to kind of detangle him and make sense of him so that's a good one. Six double doubles last year house. Pick 27 okay. You needed size I mean it's why you got your ass is handed to you by the Sixers. Well I'm one of many reasons one of many. One of many including the fact that we started runner-up or junior at game seven who hadn't played the whole series. Maybe overthought it a little. All right. send you're the list I'm gonna be surprising you guys with all these and we can react and it's a way for us to talk about the draft as I mentioned the big winners is just competence just just teams over and over again doing what seemed to be relatively the right thing that already I'm not a group thing but you just kind of was always like okay they should take him and then they would here's how you know the kings just sat tight that tight and let the guy that made the most sense for them, the guy they had their eye on, he just landed in there, no irrational behavior out of the Kings. Well, you saw what the Clippers tried to do, because there's so many, there's so many info guys, a newsletter guys, and you can basically get any message that you want out. All of a sudden, within two days of the draft, there was a, the Clippers are really becoming intrigued by Aco. of time on him. He couldn't go. Screens of the player development coaches son that was one of my more that was one of the more entertaining like I don't know if that was an angular approach or what that was about. Could you play a handcuff and dare scurril together might happen and Véveck you know it was like it was like it was just like watching somebody stay disciplined at a blackjack table for the first time ever be like nope I'm just gonna double down at 11 here. like in the wolf man like they have leather straps over his wrists and he can't touch his phone he's just like Hannibal Lecter whatever it is they definitely like that article came out they're definitely like we can't live a vaccine he's gonna trade our unprotected 2029 first to move up two spots so yeah house I'll start with renewed hope legitimate renewed hope in Washington Utah Memphis Chicago five teams that have been in the lottery a bunch of times or have rebuilt a bunch of times teams that I think during the course of last year were either egregiously tanking or not as blatantly tanking or actually screwing up the tank in Sacramento's case and now that's one sixth of the league has hope. Well the crazy thing is in the context of a third of the league tanking last season for each of the teams you just rattled off. come up with a decent interesting core of guys two or three or four young guys all on this kind of trajectory we're on the same rookie contract like look at this little nucleus that's that's coming together the bummer for those teams and and this is one of the things I'm looking at from the Washington perspective the league is good the league is better like you know if if weren't if teams aren't tanking next year I was going through the eastern conference standings trying to find who the three worst are, is there a pathway for Washington to get to the play in? Well, yes, but you know what, it's not easy. It's not an easy path. And obviously the West is, you know, just nails across the board, especially, like I look at that Utah roster. I'm like, wow. Look at how the. Oh, I can't wait to talk about that. Yeah, well, the other thing is, but look at the West. Your stupid team paid Trey young, but you have Trey young. The nets traded for Julius. Julius Randall. So you have this whole weird thing that they did Kyle with the with the draft order and the two ping pong balls if you're in the bottom three it already seems like it's affected some of the stuff we've seen right like that teams teams are actually okay getting you know basically good stat bad team guys which sorry house but that's what Trey young is is Ben and that's what Julius Randall is. Just say sorry to me might be what Michael Porter is but Kyle is, is this where we're going. I mean it seems like it well it's gonna be interesting to see how things shake up here now as these teams like House was saying it's such a radical shakeup that all these have-nots and hopeless wanderers in the desert are just no longer it was like quick change it was like the jazz just have this like sight unseen team that might be I know House you were talking about being like a playing team like the jazz might be I was we were joking about it on group jet where I was like are they better than the sons and the blazers instantly with the roster that they And they're rolling this out and I know we'll talk about it more in detail, but pretty dramatic shift in terms of the competency and the way that these teams are being ran. Well, let's talk about them first. House, we'll save your team. We've been talking about them for a while. Oh, we have the biggest winner, round one was the first poll we did on the lab, Netflix, and house is Wizards, 36. Let's go. So maybe the audience let's talk Wizards first, that's fine. We'll do that. We'll do that. de Banza, I'm just gonna call him de Banza and the Banza, I'm gonna screw it up for 10 years. Yeah. How's your first kick-ass competitive wing since when? Oh, Ron Butler? Otto Porter? Otto Porter was a pre, you know? They pay, they maxed him, they massed the poison pill. Otto Porter. He was supposed to be a big three. He was part of the big three. We almost beat the Celtics to make it all the East of conference finals to make it all the conference finals. texting me during his rookie year being like, I'm out. The saddest thing is that you and Jaylan, that was the era where you and Jaylan were interviewing the prospects as they came in and you fed me some information that wasn't very flattering. Well, yeah, we were Luke warm on him. We liked to call him the most. The one we were the most worried about was the kid who lied about his age. Who's name, I can't even remember it because it was so far ago. So favorite A. J. Zebass. Zebass. That's right? No, not Thon Maker. It was the shooting card. I can't remember Blank and he was a lefty. I can't remember. Anyway. Shabas Mahat. There we go. Wow, I'm incredible. So A. J. Soprano is the worst case A. J. Sineer. I think. A. A. A. A. Foy. A. Foy. A. Foy. You didn't. A. Foy. You didn't. Foy. You didn't. Foy. You didn't. You didn't. Foy. You didn't. Now here's where Kyle fills a pot of water and dumps it on your head. Kyle you think they should take a booser. Just make the case. No, this is a can't lose draft. I mean I gave the top three picks all A-plus is because how often you're gonna get and they said it repeatedly on the broadcast it is true you could choose your flavor here of this neapolitan sweetness of prospect goodness at the top of this draft and be come away satisfied. There's a perfectly reasonable case for taking AJ that I understand that I understand that is very sober that is very sober that is very sober. unfortunately but I just thought that I thought the the basketball You know I said this you all repeatedly I just thought in the basketball since to make them a competitive team that was gonna be very efficient and focused and Get the most and elevate their guys I thought Boozer made a lot of sense But if they end up having tray on the team which it seems like they're going to and if a d hangs around and you think about putting sar at the four and then you put a jay or above or whatever it's gonna be at the two or kai Riley's been showing out and looking good. I'm about the two, but I think they suddenly have a pretty balanced team. Like it's going to be pretty interesting, I think. So, House, I was studying him carefully this whole week and all the interviews and then even today. And at one point, the pre-show, somebody complimented his outfit and he said, I actually went to France to find this and brought it back. I don't know if I love that. Why don't she love that? I didn't love it. I didn't love it. How about getting in the gym and work. but he's very polished almost a little too polished like polished enough for I'm like he's young he's young almost seem like a 19 year old he's trying I mean this yeah a very polished 19 year old yeah that's right I mean so polished that the league selected him as their sort of youth draft correspondent to go participate and interview people and you know be in the playoffs and be kind of a digital media guy for that that's a lofty role that's a lofty role that's a lofty role I loved that I thought it was very positive reflection on his maturity by contradistinction it was you know when you're splitting the hairs so fine his personality coming out was the kind of the opposite of what we saw of Darren Peterson now you're not drafting personality here but you know we are trying to come up with a reason to choose one guy over another and that's part of why I like the bonsa yeah Peterson seemed a little better after he got picked He felt like you could see the weight. We'll talk about him in a second. So, winner, Debansa, who, you know, we've talked about him a bunch in the pod. I remember, when was that? Early February I had you on the pod, Kyle, and I was like, Debansa is gonna go first. Like this is, this is a rap. The guys, he's too filled out already. Like, what's he gonna look like when he's 27 and there? Like, he's somebody there's if you're nitpicking I don't he like he talked about his off ball defense like some people don't love a shot yet it's all stuff that will get better and better as he goes along but he seems like at one point house he said I've been number one my whole life I expected to go number one in this draft Kyle that's just like the kind of confidence I think you would want from your number one pick right yeah I mean he has earned confidence I think an interesting thing about Devons a too that I've been amused by through watching him and people that have interviewed him and his family. There is just a stern focus about them, you know, as a group. And I have friends who know his dad who were like talking about, he would have AJ talk to these different players and just to like kind of get on his ass basically on purpose to give him feedback, critical feedback. And he, and he, and his dad specifically, I remember said, I don't kiss his ass ever. He was just like on him all the time. So that you got that going on. That's the One the next title. And the other I wanted to tell houses I was thinking about this this week if we watch these playoffs and we think about the way it gets officiated if you watch your beloved Deneyavia if you watch just any of these downhill guys or whether it be Shay or whoever you think about de Bonc's specific set of gifts he's not like I'm just gonna roast you with a live dribble he's not like one of those nuclear athletes but he's his gracefulness and his balance and his power combined with being a pretty good getting downhill makes him really potent and I wanted to throw this stat at you house I was looking up it I was looking at this Did you want to jump in bill real quick? No go you do it There was there was a Paint touches in division one college basketball this year guys that average over 20 per game The top five is all point guards number one is a buka quarry who got drafted tonight He was nicious downhill We like Darius Darius Darius this is efficiency among guys that over 20 a game Cup was number two among these point cards. Number three, downhill paint touch efficiency scoring the ball A. J. de Bonza. So that's, that's, that's, that's, that's go. That guy's six foot nine. So, I just, he is. He's set up to just get to the line and score a ton. Just, by the way he plays. I mean, we could do a whole thing of a fusive, of that, how easy, it seemed like the scoring came, especially after Saunders got hurt, where he became the focal point, But what I really love is he goes both ways. I love seeing him go left with the Euro step. Oh. Pause. Jesus. Go ahead. It's like it's like 1130. Are you drunk? I'm trying to rat on it. No, I was kidding Go. Three hours ago you would have gotten that. I got it immediately. The. The here's thing with AJ. He's not LeBron. No, I was going to be LeBron. We'll probably never see the. So don't aggregate this. I'm not saying he's next LeBron. How many guys have come into the league since LeBron, where you say to yourself, eh, kind of a LeBron body, right? Were you look at him and go, I could see him at age 27 looking a little LeBronish. That is not a long list, common. I would say that's less than 10 guys that we've had come into the league. And sadly, not all of them are good. Like, maybe you could have said that about Josh Jackson. Like, oh, Josh Jackson when he's 27, he might be in the league but physically I think it's just gonna be really easy for him to get his points and the fact that he produced in college I think matters which is same thing for Booser so the whizz are a winner sadly they're also a loser house because he gave Treay Young four years two hundred twelve million dollars with a player option year four that I think he's already picked up I don't know who you're bidding against I don't know why he did it it was inexplicable we're gonna do worse contracts with worse contracts with waz in March I was screen with the first second or third pick next March. Why? We have to wait till March. Why can't you have good things? Why can't you have good things for a week? Why did this have to happen? This is what I said with all the local folks here. Like, did they have to announce this on Monday? Why couldn't we just wait till Friday or something? Make it a Friday news dump. Let everybody be in the honeymoon period with AJ, it would have been fine. And I had already wrapped my head around the idea that Trey young was going to be in my life for the next three years, for the next three years, years, 140, 100, maybe like you were crazy. How about a hundred? How about three for a hundred? So it's great. Really, you know, but the, you have to like sort of go, oh, Willie, there's a floor to the salary. You have to have a floor to your salaries. And you have seven guys on rookie contracts. You gotta pay somebody. You gotta pay somebody. You sound like C. A. You're just making. I'm just telling you, I'm just telling you I am. And I am just. because it makes no sense whatsoever to pay that man 53 effing million dollars a year. Not no sense under any, here's my problem with it and then I'll stop. Give me one example. I need one bit of evidence that this guy at the point guard position has made a teammate better. Give me, yes, he helped John Collins rim run. Sort of. guys are still with the Hawks. He didn't help them like, you know, extend their careers with the Hawks and he was just in a situation where they had the number one overall pick in the draft and they had a real young stud in Jayland Johnson and Trey couldn't coexist with those guys. For whatever the reason was, stylistically, whatever the vision is, whatever Quinn Snyder's offense was, it didn't work there. So that's a lot of the money for a project by which I mean you're projecting. You're two minutes, you took two and a half. It was horrible, it was egregious, it was a crime against the Wizards. And I don't know, this would be the only reason I wouldn't want to go to a Wizards game next year. And Trey Young's not, obviously not a bad player, but I just think, we did this when you did Bradley Bill and Bradley Bill was coming off a good season when you gave him the dumb contract. Trey-Tray on. team gave him away. And the revisionist history of this was like well Troy young chose the Wizards. He did? Who wanted to trade for him? Not one person. House did I have this friend at C. A. A. C. A. C. A. C. A. A. A. A. A. A. C. A. C. A. C. A sucker at the poker table. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A L. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. A. leader of that I that's what we were speculating about I was just like I could see I don't want speculate too much here but I could see a jay and tray being at odds at some point they like to have the ball I just I'm just wondering who where that seems like a lot of personalities that I could see well the biggest problem with tray is he's this three point kurry look alike three-point shooter but the threes don't go in but he's going to set up is going to have nothing but open looks. He's going to be, this is the master facilitator version of Trey Young, one of the all-time leading assists, guys by, you know, per game. This is true. He did lead the league in assists in recent memory. We were going to do a poll for, do you think the Wizards made a mistake with the Trey Young contract? But Netflix said we couldn't do polls where it's 100%. Yes, they made a mistake. They wanted us to have people had two votes. Another winner. So we mentioned this earlier, Utah. They take Peterson. We'll see how this turns out. Obviously the ceiling of this is the highest of all these guys. On paper, and it didn't really fully cement itself until they actually took him and he was walking up there and he seemed really relieved and happy with Triple J, Kessler, Lori marketed, George, and Peterson. So, you're starting five. Ace Bailey is your sixth man. They have a sense of bar. They have some good pieces. They have an owner who's gonna spend money and you could see how they would have talked themselves into like this is actually, Boozer would be an awesome pick for depth and maybe he's the best guy in the draft, but if we hit with Peterson this is like the missing piece for us we could be like a six seed next year next year. So what do we expect from him next year? I mean you can't say he's one of the generational scoring talent and then not kind of I mean I think he could definitely do that he's not 20 missed games right 20 points a point of 20 points a game okay I did he and kiante I think are the biggest question about just how do those guys find kind of a synergy together but man just the shooting on a one through five shooting on that team I mean it's what's worked for eight years when everybody on your on your team in a playoff series can shoot with him where maybe like a 1 a.m. you cheated on a a. jay and you looked at some YouTube clips and watched the little Darren Peterson you started thinking about it. Just your engagement ring off for an hour. Well I don't want to talk about. Stay married house. I am married super happily married. Hey I don't wear one either. Not a ring guy. I don't want to talk about. I am married. I am married. I am married. I don't wear one either. I don't wear one. I lost three. I lost three. I lost three. I'm I lost three I wore it three three I lost three different ones anyway I did flirt with the idea of a I will say I did Darren Peterson and I had a like 24 hours he had a fling we had 24 hours for 24 hours I mean I took a look I was like wow maybe I did it's like Kobe I didn't give enough I don't think I gave this guy enough credit I mean I took a look I was like wow maybe I didn't I didn't think I gave this guy enough I need to think Really was the movie list. That's what really pushed me like he's a deep thinker. It was the most important thing he did. Yeah. Oh he looks inter-star standing. Yeah. Yeah. Well this would be really fun. Look Great coach stable owner. He goes with Will Hardy goes with a stable ownership franchise goes with a really thirsty fan base a fan base that has been there for a long long time since they moved there in the 80s has had some you know really good moments made two finals in 97 98 97 98 had a nice had a nice. had a nice. almost run there with Williams and Booser. And then the Mitchell Go Bear thing just never really played out. But they've been, once a decade, they've been relevant. And they were obviously the most relevant with Malone and Stockton. But that's a really, really starving fan base that will show up in big ways. So that might be great. I will say this, Kyle, man. Danny Ainge, really awesome track record with taking elite guys. And if he likes Peterson, that makes me feel a lot better about Peterson as weird as weird as it sounds. Right. Right. Right. took to ran over over or wanted to take to ran over Odin. I think he hones in on Star Talent in a unique way and obviously likes this guy. So I think that's a great sign for the jazz. He's never gonna cower from like, oh, are you gonna be able to handle? You know, unless it's just like a, are there examples of just totally, you guys had him for a long time, I mean, you know, the track record really well? Is there a god that he ever was scared away from? Like, it's just not worth it. of super talented screw-up types just because they had talent like he kind of couldn't he couldn't resist those guys he always saw the talent so with this year of talent work ethic a whole bunch of things so Utah I don't know this would be a good Netflix poll could Utah be a playoff team next year house do you think could you see them as one of the top eight seeds next year they'd say conceivable to you or no you're basically saying that they're gonna replace Phoenix I think that's how you get there at least on paper like that the talent is there. They're way more talented like it's not even close. The enormous unknown is like what's real hardy capable of like how can this all come together with this team actually trying to win and it feels like we might have the answer in the first 10 games of the season. Like you said that you think that Peterson is gonna start I think it's fine to bring them off the bench. Let's let Ace start. Either way it doesn't really matter. an embarrassment of riches and a really fascinating challenge for them but the West is so good. It's Portland and Phoenix that they're going to be competing with. Right in Portland we still has a chance to get better we'll see with Phoenix. The Netflix audience thinks Utah should take in Peterson, 6,000% on that. Question on, you mentioned the fugitive. I was noting this in our draft grades. I was like, do you think Darren Peterson sees any sort of kinship