The Miami Market!

Real Estate This Week

The episode explores the current state of the Miami and South Florida real estate market, highlighting a sharp divergence between single-family

Key takeaways

Single-family homes in Miami-Dade face a seller's market with only four months of inventory, down significantly from pandemic peaks.
Condo prices remain soft due to high supply and lingering recovery from post-Surfside building regulations.
Ultra-luxury single-family thresholds now start at $15 million for the top 1%, while condos hit $10 million.
Out-of-state migration to Miami-Dade is at an all-time high, with New York and California as primary origin states.
Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5% to 7% continue to lock in existing homeowners, restricting new listings.

Main topics

Miami single-family home market dynamics
Condominium inventory and pricing trends
Ultra-luxury real estate price thresholds

Notable quotes

Inventory continues to go down for single family. We're about 20%. We have about 20 % homes available on the market as of the end of July this year compared to a year ago.

Conclusion

Listeners gain actionable insights into South Florida's shifting inventory landscape and

Transcript preview

Speaker 2 (0:03) This is Real Estate This Week with Stephen Gaskell. Speaker 2 (0:08) 17 years on air and online, helping you succeed in buying, selling, and investing in property. The best real estate strategies out there just for Speaker 1 (0:20) you. Speaker 1 (0:25) Welcome to Real Estate This Week. Hi again, I'm Stephen Gaskway, and I'm so glad you're here as we look at a great way to stay warm this fall and winter, and that is buying a home in Miami. That's right, as the northern parts of the country are cooling down, the Miami market is heating up. Let's talk about it now with an expert. Joining us is Gay Kourouraton, the chief economist at the Miami Association of Realtors Plus Our World, a massive association of nearly 100,000 realtors. Gay is also a certified real estate economist who holds the counselor of real estate designation with the National Association of Business Economists. Gay, welcome to Real Estate This Week. Speaker 3 (1:17) Thank you, Stephen, for having me. I Speaker 1 (1:19) am so glad you are here. And so, Gay, as it gets colder up north in the United States, more people are looking at Florida as a great way to spend the fall and the winter. So tell me, how's the market in Florida? Speaker 3 (1:35) Doing well, particularly the single family market. We're seeing a pickup in sales in 2026, mainly because of the lower mortgage rates, middle of the year, last year. So picking up really well. Prices are still rising for single family. It's a seller's market for single family below six months supply. But the condo market is a different story. Still recovering from the condo building regulations passed in Speaker 2 (2:04) place after Speaker 3 (2:05) the Surfside collapse. But even there, sales are picking up, but prices are still weak and soft because there's still a lot of inventory there. And in the condo market, it's still a buyer's Speaker 1 (2:17) market. I see. But for single-family homes that are not condominiums... You say it is a seller's market. So tell me, is there any inventory down there? Can I come down and find a bunch of houses for sale? Or is it very, very thin? Speaker 3 (2:34) Okay. Well, it's not like in the 21, 22 days where, you know, you listed all the days, but not that day, right? It was one to two months supply. Now we're at four months supply. But here's the interesting thing. inventory continues to go down for single family. We're about 20%. We have about 20 % homes available on the market as of the end of July this year compared to a year ago. So the market is, the inventory is dwindling. So I would say that competition is tightening, you know. So if you're in the market, you know, looking for a home, I don't expect the single family market to... Speaker 2 (3:16) have more Speaker 3 (3:17) slack in terms of available inventory so there's not just a lot of inventory coming into the market and i think one reason for that is because mortgage rates remain elevated right so if you purchased a home or you bought a home back in 2021 or you refinance and mortgage rates were three percent well mortgage rates are still at hovering at six and a half percent and over So there is that rate lock in effect still in place. Speaker 1 (3:43) Right, where people had a low mortgage interest rate and they don't want to lose it. Speaker 3 (3:47) Yes. So essentially, we're still seeing that new listings are falling behind new pending sales, Speaker 2 (3:53) particularly for single family. The bottom line Speaker 3 (3:56) inventory is tightening. It is a seller's market. But yes, there's more inventory to be had compared to 2021, 2022, when mortgage rates were at 3%. Speaker 1 (4:08) I see. And does it really follow