Trump’s GOP Support Is CRACKING — Republicans Finally Fight Back

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

The episode examines the growing fractures within the Republican party as candidates begin to distance themselves from Donald Trump due to economic

Key takeaways

• Republican Senator Roger Marshall expressed concerns regarding the scale of ICE raids in Kansas.
• Economic indicators such as 7.5% mortgage rates and a 27% year-over-year increase in gas prices are driving voter dissatisfaction.

Main topics

• Republican party fragmentation
• Economic affordability crisis

Notable quotes

The economy is complete shit.

Conclusion

The episode highlights a period of intense political volatility where

Transcript preview

Speaker 8 (0:01) Hogging seats on a crowded train, not saying excuse me, watching videos on your phone with no headphones in. Sometimes it feels like we don't know how to act anymore. What we have been seeing increasingly is Speaker 7 (0:15) people breaking rules. Why should I play by the rules if nobody else is going to do that for me? This Speaker 8 (0:21) week on Explain It To Me, how to mind your manners. New episodes Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 3 (0:29) We all know the Beach Boys, but to really understand them, you have to get to know the genius behind their songs, Brian Wilson. I'm Will Anderson, and this week on the Monday Music Club podcast, we dive into the history behind two of his masterpieces. the Beach Boys album Pet Sounds, and their song Good Vibrations. I was joined by Brian's biographer, David Leaf, and we went through what drove Brian, what it was like in the studio during those sessions, and why the pressure of following them up made Brian have to take a step back from music. You can listen to the episode everywhere you get your podcasts by searching for Monday Music Club. Speaker 4 (1:07) How are you? Speaker 2 (1:09) Well, I'm sad to not be physically with you. Like we were last night at Politics and Prose. It was so fun. I Speaker 4 (1:16) know last night was awesome. But we're now here virtually and it's going to be awesome again. So we're back. Speaker 2 (1:22) Yes, we're back. Okay. Normal life. You don't want to spend time talking about our wonderful night. Not like in a like date way. It was a book event for I Disagree. Bye, I disagree. And leave a review. Also, I'm getting really nice reviews, but I want more of them. If you have something bad to say, I don't particularly want that, but I won't have them take it down either. I'm not one of those people astroturfing the situation. Welcome to The Raging Perspective. I'm Jessica Tarlov. Speaker 4 (1:51) And I'm Aaron Parnas. And if you haven't subscribed yet, hit that link, top left corner, and subscribe. Speaker 2 (1:56) hit the top left. All right. We got a lot to get to. We are now under 40 days to the midterms, which feels crazy. It'll be just a month. That's what I meant by right under 40. A growing number of Republicans, including Senate hopefuls in Michigan and Iowa, are publicly breaking with Trump. They're going after a number of unpopular policies and actions. What took you so long? War in Iran, rising gas prices, immigration operations, even in Kansas. That one blew my mind when Roger Marshall had to be like, these ICE raids are out of control. And it's like, did you just wake up? Have you not been around here for the last? almost two years, but I digress. Questionable funding for Don Jr.'s wedding was also a hot topic. John Curtis from Utah leading the way there. Yeah, that funfetti cake is going to haunt them. One of the many reasons that voters are turning against Trump is obviously the affordability crisis. Mortgage rates, now it's 7.5%. Diesel prices at a historic highs and gas prices are up 27 % year over year. Speaker 2 (3:05) I'm not sure if it's just my algorithm. Everything is usually just your algorithm. But I have been consuming these incredible ads from candidates who you wouldn't expect to have any shot. So Adam Hamilton has one out. Dan Osborne that I'm loving. Todd Achilles in Idaho. Speaker 2 (3:27) Gina, how do you pronounce her last name? Inejosa. Inejosa. Where she actually has a January 6th in her ad against Greg Abbott in Texas. And it makes me feel like the map. is wide open for us. I know that a good ad doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to win. But the polling also indicates there's a reason that they're cutting these great ads. What do you think the current state of play is? Do you think it's too little too late in terms of turning on Trump for someone like a Mike Rogers or Ashley Henson? Speaker 4 (4:01) Well, I think Americans are smarter than this. I mean, I think the funniest thing that I see right now are these Republican candidates scrubbing Donald Trump from their website. So Byron Donald's did it last week in Florida. And then just today, Jay Feeley, who is MAGA MAGA all the way in Arizona's first congressional districts. Once he had Trump's name and his face on his website today, he no longer has Trump anywhere near him. I think voters remember voters are not dumb. You can't a the Internet is forever. B, you can't just like. all of a sudden say, no, we didn't do what we just did over the past almost two years. Like, no, everything you're seeing is not actually what you're seeing. I think that they see the writing on the wall. Every single poll that comes out, and I'm not a big believer in polls, but at a point, literally every poll shows Republicans hemorrhaging support across the country. And it's not just in like generic R versus D polling. It's in issues-based polling, immigration, they're underwater, the economy, they're underwater. And take polls out of it. I judge how an election will do based on how the economy is doing in November. And right now, the economy is complete shit. If the economy was great right now and Americans were making money and your 401ks were in fact booming, and not just were they booming, but you could actually afford to invest in your retirement fund, I think Republicans could hold on to the House and the Senate. If gas prices were at $3 a gallon, I think we'd be having a very different conversation. That's not where we are right now. And I think... the White House has blinders on as to what the actual reality is on the ground right now. Speaker 2 (5:31) Yeah, I mean, you said you're not a big believer in polls. I am a big believer in polls. Speaker 2 (5:37) I also like staying employed and worked in polling, and I think it's an important indication. You know, it's a snapshot of a moment in time, and the trend lines are definitely moving dramatically in Democrats' direction. There were a few results that stood out to me, like while everything is going blue, blue, blue, blue, blue, blue, blue, Susan Collins was up three in one of the most recent polls against Troy Jackson. a concern that's a major pickup opportunity. Chris Pappas only pulling kind of three to five points ahead in a best case scenario in New Hampshire. That wasn't really on anyone's radar as something that we are going to need to spend big to defend and looks to be an issue. I was heartened to see Abdul Al-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson are now running at the same level ahead of their Republican opponents. Abdul had been lagging behind her. So that's good news. But it feels as if. It's just like too good to be true and that maybe there's some massive polling error coming. I don't want to think that, but it seems unrealistic that you could have a world in which this blue tsunami happens while public approval for the Democratic Party has not inched Speaker 4 (6:57) up Speaker 2 (6:57) that much. Like they still don't like us. I Speaker 4 (7:00) don't think it's going to be a blue tsunami. I never. did think it was going to be a blue tsunami. I think it's going to be a successful blue wave. But for example, I think Democrats are going to pick up somewhere around 30 seats in the House of Representatives, give a Democratic speaker about a 20 to 22 seat majority. That's a pretty big pickup, but it's not going to be amazing. It'd be amazing. It'd be huge, but it's not going to be anywhere near 60 to 70 seats. I don't I don't envision that type of swing. Same thing in the Senate. Like if Democrats win the Senate, I anticipate it being a very tight win. But I think the more likely scenario today is that still Republicans hold on to the Senate, just given the map. But I think Republicans are going to lose some seats in the Senate. I think North Carolina at this point, I would rate as likely or as solid of a D as really there is in the country with Roy Cooper at the top of the ballot. I think Georgia will hold on. I think Democrats are going to have trouble in Maine. I think Democrats are still going to have trouble in Texas, although it's going to be closer in Iowa, in Alaska. I mean, these are ruby. These are reliably red states in a traditional year. And so. Every Democrat there is running as a major underdog. I think you'll have a couple of those flip. I don't know which ones will flip. But I mean, if you were to ask me today, what's more likely to flip a state like, for example, Sherrod Brown in Ohio or even Susan Collins in Maine? I personally would probably argue Sherrod in Ohio just because of the strength that Susan Collins has in Maine and has had for longer than decades. Yeah. Even though she said she'd only run for two terms. Speaker 2 (8:26) I don't like being lied to. I just want to I want to talk about this new court ruling, but wanted to add that there was a quote about the Georgia race, about Mike Collins, who is a particularly bad candidate running against John Ossoff, who is so on top of his game. But they said that it was basically the spending now would be just to keep the patient comfortable, which felt like a pretty brutal. Speaker 2 (8:53) pretty brutal ruling or explanation for what's going on in Georgia. The Supreme Court just cleared the Trump administration to use sensitive federal data to help states identify people deemed ineligible to vote. Critics warn it