Republicans Brace for HISTORIC Losses as Trump PANICS and BRIBES Voters

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov analyze the final stretch before the midterm elections, noting strong Democratic polling leads in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. They dissect Trump's recent campaign rallies, focusing on his

Key takeaways

• Kalshi odds place Democrats at 63-64% to win majorities in both the House and Senate, with Gallup showing an 11-point quarterly shift toward Dems since Q1 2009.
• Trump promised $100 checks to 20 million Medicare seniors and teased a $5,000 giveaway, which Galloway argues is simply an increased credit limit that passes debt to younger generations.

Main topics

• Midterm election polling & Democratic momentum
• Trump campaign giveaways & national deficit spending

Notable quotes

"If the Democrats win, you will end up in a 1929 style economic depression."

Conclusion

The episode provides a data-driven assessment of Democratic electoral advantages

Transcript preview

Speaker 8 (0:00) Hey, it's Sue Bird. I'm back this week with a brand new episode of Bird's Eye View. I am joined by Portland Fire head coach Alex Sarama to discuss bringing his unique coaching style to the WNBA and channeling this year's momentum into the Fire's next season. But first, Coach Sarama and I break down the action from round one of the playoffs. Make sure to check out Bird's Eye View on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 4 (0:24) Hey guys, Cassidy Hubberth here. This week on And Mom, beloved reporter and beauty queen, Allie LaForce opens up about IVF and an incurable genetic disorder, the stress and shame of miscarriage, and the one thing that would have helped her with her transition into motherhood. Check out the latest episode of And Mom wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 7 (0:50) Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And Speaker 2 (0:53) I'm Jessica Tarlev. Speaker 7 (0:54) So before we get started, make sure to subscribe to stay up to date and support our show. All right, Jess, let's bust into it. We're less than a month from the midterm elections and Trump has been out rallying for Republican causes. He's promising another round of checks for voters, saying he'll send nearly $100 to 20 million seniors on Medicare. Okay, we'll come back to that. Cal, she has the odds that Dems sweep the House and the Senate at 63%. Wow, it's the worm turn. And polling shows Democrats leading in gubernatorial races in Republican-led states, including Iowa, Ohio, and even Texas. Trump also seemed erratic when speaking at a rally in Ohio over the weekend and promised a big surprise in November. Here's a test. Speaker 3 (1:38) If the Democrats win, you will end up in a 1929 style economic depression. If the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket and economic success for our country like we have never seen before. The mutilization of your children. Can you imagine like 10, 15 years ago saying that, ladies and gentlemen, we will not have men. playing in women's sports. Will you defend it? Tariffs have been used against us for years and years in China, in Japan, in South Korea, in Canada. Data centers benefit local communities. We want them. Look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio. You can't just turn them off. They'll go to China. China is, you know, a lot of people think it's sort of a PR attack by China. Could be. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not such a believer in that, but it probably is a little truth to it. And I know more about inflation. I know more about everything than anybody in this room, anybody anywhere in the world. Well, there's a woman sitting right over there that she's a housewife, but she's very good. She's got a natural instinct for business. Just get out and vote. If you do that, we're going to win and we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass. OK. Speaker 3 (3:00) I'd love to do that. I'd love to. Speaker 1 (3:03) So, Jess, I'm on the East Coast, which means it's very, very early here. You're on the West Coast. That's Speaker 3 (3:10) how Speaker 1 (3:10) tired you are. That's Speaker 2 (3:10) how Speaker 1 (3:10) tired I am. So I'm on the West Coast. And while typically I'm up for something shoved up my ass, it's just not what I want to hear at this, at O'Dark 100 hours from an obese 80-year-old man. That's not who I want shoving anything up my ass. Your thoughts, Jess? Speaker 2 (3:25) I also would. like to keep my ass Trump free. So even though $5,000 would be nice. Speaker 7 (3:32) We Speaker 2 (3:32) have alignment. Yes. We have alignment. We have a consensus. I Speaker 7 (3:36) wouldn't even do it for $5,000. $6,000 maybe. $6,000 maybe, but not $5,000. That's your number? Oh, God. $6,000? Speaker 2 (3:44) Don't let that get out there, and we're live streaming. So Speaker 7 (3:46) you're... Great. How did... Whatever happened to that guy? Speaker 7 (3:53) So give us an update. This is your sweet spot. Talk to us about the midterms and how things are looking. Speaker 2 (4:00) Well, I'm sure that our producers are happy that we've moved away from what would be the thumbnail, you know, $6,000 ass man, Scott Galloway. Up too early on the West Coast. The Speaker 7 (4:12) midterms and ass play, anyways. Speaker 2 (4:14) It's like so much good news that I'm uncomfortable. Speaker 7 (4:18) I don't Speaker 2 (4:19) know Speaker 7 (4:19) how to even cross. It's nerve wracking. It's like, OK, things are going too well here. Speaker 2 (4:25) Like I prepared for the show and three minutes ago, a friend texts me. Did you see this? And I thought, oh, my God, what is it? You know, is the Russian plague here? Oh, no, no, no. It's just Gallup. Knock, knock, knock. The voter ID for Q3, Democrats up 11 points. It's the largest quarterly margin recorded for Democrats since the first quarter of 2009. We all remember what was going on there. It's nuts. It's also this time, you know, right before the election where there's just so much data pouring in and you have to be very careful about what you trust and what you don't. But everything is moving in the same direction. And that is a good thing. You have, you know, some results that make sense to me, even from grade A pollsters, like the big poll from the weekend was the New York Times-Siena poll, which is historically very, very accurate. Really nailed it in 2024, was one of the first polls to pick up the signal that people who used to historically voted for Democrat were considering Donald Trump. Obviously, that came to fruition. They have Ashley Hinson up by one in Iowa. That makes sense to me. It's Iowa. Susan Collins up three in Maine. That also makes sense to me. Adam Hamilton tied in Kansas, which would just be a bonkers result. We haven't sent a Democrat to Washington from Kansas since 1932. So it's been a while. But they had Tallarico up 51-45, and now he's been over 50 % in a few polls, which is the important threshold where, obviously, you're going to win if that's the case. Sherrod Brown up in Ohio, Mary Patola up by seven in Alaska, and Al Sayed up by five, which is much more comfortable than the Fox News poll, which only had him up by one. You know, the NBC Telemundo poll also had a lot of really good results. Tons of focus on what's going on with Latino voters. Republicans have just completely shit the bed. But Donald Trump only has a 27 % approval rating with Latinos right now. Historically, Hillary won Latino men by 31, Biden by 23, but Trump won them by 10 in 2024. And today, Democrats are up 24. Speaker 2 (6:50) Wall Street Journal, 11 % of Trump voters regret their vote. They feel betrayed and they are struggling financially. 87 % say that Trump's economic policies have made the economy worse. 91 % give the economy a negative job rating and 93 % give Trump a negative job rating himself. Speaker 2 (7:09) I don't know where you want to dive into all of that. Oh, and I will say also the DCCC, the Democrats, the House Committee, are thinking that they could pick up as many as 240 seats. And now they're dumping money into another six races, all districts that Trump won from between 10 and 21 points. If this is going to be a polling error, it is going to be the polling error that should destroy the polling industry. At this point, this is beyond the quiet Trump voter in 2016. And, you know, people saying with 100 percent certainty or at least 99 percent that Hillary Clinton was going to win. A lot had to go right for him. That is the way the dominoes fell. And some models made room for that, like Nate Silver's. But this is bananas. I don't know if the kids say bananas, but I say this is bananas. Speaker 7 (8:03) Do you think polls, or I read somewhere, and I'm curious if you think there's merit to this, that polls have a tendency to have a bias favoring Democrats? Speaker 7 (8:14) It Speaker 2 (8:14) depends on the poll. I mean, there are some surveys that are very famous for having Republican biases, but I've seen that most of these and certainly the A-quality ones, which are the ones that I like to discuss because why waste your time talking about, you know, a so-so pollster that came up with something that you liked? You can have a top-tier pollster that said something that you liked. They've been looking under the proverbial hood on what the sample looks like. And I have not seen anyone ripping these apart on that basis. And Tony Fabrizio, who is the president's pollster, his own work is finding that Democrats are winning. And in... states where we have no business even being competitive. And I think that's how you end up with Donald Trump doing a direct-to-camera saying, I'm going to pay you $5,000 if I win to every single American or if my team wins, because the alarms are coming from within the House, right? His own advisors are saying, we are in a complete crisis mode, which is why we need you in Oklahoma and Alabama. And he's in Ohio. That should be, you know, be a flip for Sherrod Brown, obviously, and a flip in the governor's mansion. And you have Vivek Ramaswamy. Did you see this? Like trying to pick up that kid where he's like, oh, I'm going to pick up this kid now. And yes, it was not a baby, but the kid went limp. You know, how annoying is that when you're trying to pick up your kid and then they just like, and you can't do anything. But anyway, it was like the most humiliating moment. And I guess I had a sad Saturday night, but I just. Watch that probably like 200 times on replay. I Speaker 7 (9:55) like that. I immediately wanted to go check that out. Speaker 7 (10:01) Another giveaway. I'm just trying to, I can't help it. I feel like we always have a tendency to go after the politician and it's this sort of, are voters this stupid? So vote for us, $5,000, vote for them. We cut your kids genitals off. Like voters buy that, that works. That bumper sticker works. What do you think of this $100 or this another giveaway to seniors now? Speaker 2 (10:25) I assume some will go for it, but when they looked at and they... I haven't seen... people look at who believes him about the $5,000 for everyone. But, you know, he floated this last month. And it was something like only 13 % of voters thought that it was true. And when you are running an emperor has no clothes administration and only 13 % can see your imaginary outfit anymore, you're in a lot of trouble. And they're flailing. And... You see at this moment, and I get it that it's exhausting, and I can't imagine at 80 keeping the schedule that he does and, you know, flying all over the country and, you know, sitting on Zoom calls. Did you see he was on like a G7 call and refused to turn his camera on? I Speaker 7 (11:14) do that a lot. Speaker 2 (11:17) Yeah, but you're not the leader of the free world. You're just the leader of the pod. Speaker 7 (11:21) I don't know. We have a lot of influence here, Jess. Oh, is that how this rolls now? Speaker 2 (11:27) But he does, he seems like he is fed up with this. And he resents the fact that he has to be out there campaigning for people, I mean, a lot of them who don't even want him to come, frankly. But that... They should be doing better. And he doesn't understand why the folks down ballot are less talented than he is. And he's a great retail politician. You know, he created these amazing relationships with people, those who love him, really love him and enjoy him. The problem is the cult is softening, you know, chipping away at the seams and Democrats are, you know, running around. open bag saying, you know, just come, you know, come with us, come with us. Question will be, let's say these midterms are incredible. And I think we can all agree, you know, there are individual candidates that are doing an amazing job. But in general, I don't think that people feel as if the party, the Democratic Party has a clear, compelling message as to why the future will be better under a Democratic. Speaker 2 (12:36) presidency, you know, heading into the years to come. And I'm curious to see what they do with that, like what that turns into, because this will be, you know, your second to last at best, but, you know, maybe just last anti-Trump election because he won't be on the ballot in 2028, despite what the folks in that Ohio arena feel. Speaker 2 (13:01) Support for the Speaker 5 (13:02) show comes from Quo. Think about the last time you called a business and nobody picked up. What'd you do? You called the next one. Your customers do the exact same thing. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q-U-O, the business phone system built so you never miss a call. All your texts, calls, and voicemails live in one place, so anyone on your team can pick up the conversation, see the full history, and respond fast. Quo is trusted by over 90,000 businesses who rely on it to stay reachable and look professional every day. Setup takes minutes, you can keep your existing number, and add teammates as you grow. Quo's optional built-in AI agent handles after-hours calls, answers questions,