Republicans Are Running From Trump. Will It Work?
Radio Atlantic
This episode of Radio Atlantic explores the increasing volatility of the upcoming midterm elections, focusing on the growing rift between President
Key takeaways
- Some Republicans are distancing themselves from President Trump due to unpopular stances on the Iran war and economic issues like diesel prices.
- President Trump appears more willing to allow political 'daylight' between himself and candidates to protect his long-sought historical legacy.
Main topics
- Republican distancing from Trump
- Gerrymandering and redistricting
Notable quotes
It's all very confusing and concerning, and one is forced to wonder whether it's also voter suppression.
Conclusion
The midterm landscape is defined by a sense of chaos and instability,
Transcript preview
Speaker 3 (0:00) There are, of course, valid reasons to redraw district maps. But in an election year, could this not also be seen as a form of cheating? The Speaker 1 (0:09) people I was talking to in Missouri really did feel like their vote was being diluted. It added to the sense that why should I pass my ballot? It doesn't matter. It's all rigged anyway. I don't think it's going away. And the validity of it as a political tool is something that is certainly being endorsed at this moment by both parties. Speaker 3 (0:33) This is Radio Atlantic. I'm Adam Harris. And today we need to think about the mess of the midterms. With just over a month until Election Day, one might hope for a bit more certainty. Gerrymandering wars over the last two years have reshaped congressional maps across the country. Election deniers, some who still falsely contend that the 2020 election was stolen, are overseeing elections. And every other day, it seems, court decisions are changing how people will vote this year. Bottom line? It's all very confusing and concerning, and one is forced to wonder whether it's also voter suppression. My colleagues Toulouse Olorunnipa and Madeline Carlisle have been covering the shifting political and legal environments around midterm elections, and they join me now to discuss. Let's get to questions. Tolu, Maddie, thank you so much for joining me today. Speaker 1 (1:23) Hi, thanks for having us. Hey, Speaker 3 (1:25) thanks for having us. I want to start by asking you both about something you've been reporting on, which is how more Republicans running for office are backpedaling away from President Trump. Tolu, midterms can often be a sort of referendum around a president and the sitting president and their policies. So is this pre-election politics as usual, or is there something else going on? What is your reporting show? Speaker 2 (1:50) It's a little bit of both. There is sort of the normal backing away from an unpopular president that you tend to see in a midterm election. Midterm elections don't usually go very well for the party in power. And it's usually because the president is not as popular as he was when he was first elected. That's normal. But what is not normal is how much these Republicans are backing away from the president and the way that they're doing it. And the fact that President Trump is unlike any previous president and that he does not allow. people to back away from him, usually without paying a price. He's kept his party in line over the last several years by essentially going against anyone who speaks out against him, primarying them, showing them that he's willing to tank their political careers. And so for that reason, we haven't seen a lot of people break from the president, but now his poll numbers are so low. He's so unpopular, the most unpopular that he's ever been over the course of his two different terms. And people are realizing that things are not getting better. they are not going to be successful if they stay with him. And so a number of these Republicans are realizing that, they're seeing the polling and they're starting to make some clear breaks with him over the war in Iran, over the affordability crisis, over things like AI and data centers. And the president has taken some unpopular positions on those issues. And so they are reading the room, they're looking at their constituencies, they're realizing that their own political careers could end if they stay with the president. And so we're seeing this jailbreak of a number of Republicans speak out against the president, take different positions than he has taken. And we're seeing it in a way that we haven't seen it in the past when it comes to President Trump. Speaker 3 (3:25) Yeah. And Manny, as Tolu mentioned, right, this isn't something that the president typically takes sitting down, right? He's not one to sort of take criticism lightly. And even beyond that, right, those who don't sort of full-throatedly support him, he often doesn't take too kindly to that. Why is his response more muted this time around? Speaker 1 (3:48) I think, as Toluse said, he sees the writing on the wall in a way. He also has a much smarter political group around him this time around. I've been told that by various sources. But I think given that there are certain issues that are so incredibly unpopular, like the war in Iran, like the price of diesel, that he, you know. as a smart political actor, understands that these candidates need to make a little daylight, and he's allowing that. But there have been cycles in the past where these candidates needed to do similar things, and he was incredibly unforgiving. So, you know, maybe it's that he's this deep into his political career now. He understands how things work. It could be that he's got these new folks he's working with this time who weren't with him back in 2018 when he was last in this position. But he is allowing folks. to back away in a way that he has not before. And from conversations I've had, that makes candidates more comfortable to do so. They won't be targeted as the way they were in 2018. I mean, I'm not one to predict the president's actions. Maybe he will target them. But as of right now, he's been very muted in his response. And that could be giving people a bit more confidence to do what they think they need to do to win over the critical independent voter who will decide this midterm cycle. Speaker 3 (5:07) You know, I actually, and it makes me think, it's not that these are just sort of arbitrary issues, right? This is a war that is affecting people. It is driving up the price of diesel. It's driving up the price of gas. These are concerns that voters have. If he is... If he sees his party backing away from these unpopular issues, why isn't the president himself reading the room and backing away from some of these issues as well? Wouldn't that help the party more than saying, you know, this individual person backing away? Speaker 2 (5:38) It probably would help the party, but President Trump has run his last election and he's thinking much less about. the fate of his party or even the popularity of his policies, in part because he's not going to have to go before voters again. And he's thinking of his presidency in this broad legacy defining. way that you know sometimes second term presidents think about uh their their time in office and so he is in his mind taking positions that are maybe politically unpopular but will be better for the overall trajectory of the country and better for his legacy he thinks he's solving the the long-running issue of relations with iran and and the potential for iran getting a nuclear weapon there's a lot of debate over whether going to war was effective in in preventing that but in his mind and how he's talking to his advisors and how they're talking to him, that is what he's doing here. And so he has said it publicly that he doesn't care