Can the Democrats take Texas?

Politics Weekly America

The episode examines the surprising competitiveness of the Texas Senate race between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican incumbent Ken Paxton. Host Jonathan Freedland interviews James Henson, who

Key takeaways

• James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in recent Texas Senate polls, marking the tightest race for Democrats in decades.
• Paxton's 2014 Trump primary endorsement revitalized his campaign but also tied him to controversial national politics and fraud allegations.

Main topics

• Texas midterm elections
• James Talarico campaign strategy

Notable quotes

"If there was even a hint that Texas might be in play, it fundamentally changes the board."

Conclusion

The episode underscores how shifting voter sentiment on inflation and candidate

Transcript preview

Speaker 8 (0:00) This is The Guardian. Speaker 8 (0:11) Have you found yourself confessing personal things to ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude? You're not alone. Something huge is underway that we haven't really found the words for yet. A new voice in our ear, guiding what we think and feel and do. But should we trust it? Speaker 1 (0:29) I just thought, what has this thing done to him? Speaker 8 (0:32) Black Box The Chatbots, a new podcast series from The Guardian Investigates. Listen now, wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 3 (0:44) Before I get into this week's episode, I wanted to ask you a favour. With just a month to go until the midterm elections, I want to hear your thoughts and questions. What races are you interested in? What candidates do you want to know more about? Do you already have questions about what it all means for the presidential contest in 2028? I plan to answer as many of those questions as I can in an episode later on this month. So do please send them all to... Politics Weekly America at theguardian.com. And I look forward to hearing from you. Speaker 6 (1:19) We're here bringing Democrats, Independents, and Republicans together to do what Texans do best, loving thy neighbor. Speaker 3 (1:27) James Tallarico, the young Presbyterian minister-in-waiting from Austin, Texas, is giving Democrats reasons to be hopeful. I think there's something Speaker 6 (1:37) special happening across the state of Texas. And I really do think that we are going to make history Speaker 3 (1:42) on November 3rd. If James Tallarico wins in November, could this be the beginning of the end of Republican domination of the Lone Star State? Speaker 2 (1:51) If there was even a hint that Texas might be in play, it fundamentally changes the board. I'm Speaker 3 (1:57) Jonathan Friedland, columnist for The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America. Speaker 3 (2:04) And I'm delighted to be joined for the very first time on the podcast by James Henson, who is the founder and executive director of the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin. James, excellent to have you with us on Politics Weekly America. Speaker 2 (2:24) Thanks for having me. I'm looking forward to chatting. So, Speaker 3 (2:26) James, first off, just the level of engagement, enthusiasm, interest in these midterm elections. Often it can be only one for the specialists and for the nerds. But this time in Texas, are you seeing the signs of people getting into it? Often there's the old yard sign, lawn sign indicator when people have placards staked into the ground for their chosen candidates. TV spots, etc. What are the signs you're getting that this is an election that's caught fire in Texas? I Speaker 2 (2:59) think right now you can't turn on your streaming device or a television without seeing a flood of ads in the top of the ballot races here. So whether people want to pay attention or not, it's being thrust upon them to some degree. But I think what you say is right. We're seeing in our polling and in the polling that's being done voluminously in the state that people are paying a lot more attention to this election, particularly to the Senate race, than we're used to seeing in a midterm election. Because, you know, there's an unusual storyline here and it is grabbing people's attention. Speaker 3 (3:35) That's because normally Texas would be pretty well what we would call a safe seat. It's pretty much in the bag for Republicans going back decades at statewide level, certainly. But this time, there's that degree of interest sparked by this man, James Tallarico. Now, you know, you're in the state capital, Austin. That's actually where he's from. I think he attended, indeed, the very university that you work at. Just tell us about him and what you know of him, whether, in fact, you even know him. Speaker 2 (4:03) Yeah, I mean, I've met James a few times in passing. He was really engaged in voter registration as a student at UT. And he was, I think, an unusually high-profile legislator when he was in the state house. He's one of 150 in the minority party, so it's not like he was making headlines daily. But he was a thoughtful and very serious, almost... I think it's safe to say, earnest young legislator when he was elected in really the last decent Democratic year in 2018. So people knew who he was, and he's kind of grown up since he was Jimmy Tallarico at UT Austin and now is a national headline maker, but is a guy with a very unusual profile for a Democrat, a mixture of progressive. Speaker 2 (4:55) impulses which are giving him some trouble in the election. You Speaker 7 (4:58) say, I will oppose trans athletes playing in girls' sports if it risks safety or fairness. This contrasts with your vote on SB15 that banned this practice statewide. Have you changed positions on this topic? Speaker 6 (5:17) No, my position is exactly the same. The reason I opposed that bill is because it was a blanket. statewide ban without any appreciation for nuance. But Speaker 2 (5:29) also somebody who decided to go to seminary while he was in the legislature, as you know, and speaks very ably in the language of Christianity, which is important in a conservative state like Texas. My faith teaches me that Speaker 6 (5:46) every child is made in the image of God. And so I am always going to push back against efforts to grandstand when it comes to our students. But Speaker 2 (5:59) also unusual for a Democratic Party that certainly nationally and even in Texas is pretty secular. Speaker 3 (6:06) I mean, coming through very much from just the language you're talking about him as a former student, earnest young legislator, he's young. I mean, we talked about John Ossoff on the podcast a few weeks back, the incumbent senator in Georgia. He's a man still in his 30s. James Tallarico is 37 years old. I mean, you've gone through the resume there a little bit. Obviously, he's not had time to do that much. But in the time he's had, what sort of political... capital? What kind of political credentials has he accumulated? Speaker 2 (6:37) Well, I think it's fair to say he, as you say, he hasn't had time to do a lot. But while in the legislature, I think he was probably most well known for being engaged with public education issues. which is an interesting place to be in Texas right now, because on one hand, public education is always bubbling under in a rapidly growing state with a very young population compared to other states here. And so that was a pretty good place to make his mark in the party. On the other hand, he was on the losing side of a lot of big fights in Texas as a legislator. So in a lot of ways, I think you could associate him with a lot of typical Democratic issues. But I think this You know, this earnestness that I refer to has served him well, kind of raised his profile, and his youth really helps with that, you know, to the point where I think some of the early Republican attacks really tried to make an issue out of his, you know, he's not only young, but he, let's put it