Will Burnham’s big and bold speech backfire?

Political Currency

The episode dissects the political fallout from Andy Burnham's Labour conference speech, focusing on his bold announcements regarding a National Care Service and potential EU relationship reforms. George Osborne and Ed Balls critically examine the fiscal mechanics of

Key takeaways

• Andy Burnham energized the Labour base with a 'big and bold' agenda but left critical fiscal details for Chancellor John Healey's upcoming budget.
• George Osborne cites IFS analysis showing no immediate scoreable savings from amending the triple lock, warning it could backfire politically with pensioners.

Main topics

• Andy Burnham's Labour conference speech
• Pension triple lock and National Care Service funding

Notable quotes

"The elephant in the room is that the pensioner population is a massive voting bloc. The politician in me says, be very careful."

Conclusion

The episode underscores the growing gap between ambitious political messaging and hard fiscal realities, while

Transcript preview

Speaker 2 (0:00) What does it take to push bold ideas forward? Build new ways of working. And how can businesses help solve society's biggest challenges? Take on Tomorrow is back with a brand new season. Join us as we meet innovators and experts from around the world to discover the secret to building momentum. Visit pwc.com slash take on tomorrow or wherever you listen to podcasts for season five. Speaker 3 (0:33) Pensioners will be worse off than they would otherwise be if you vote Labour in the next election. Speaker 8 (0:39) It may be they thought that the financial markets will think they're willing to make tough choices. Speaker 3 (0:44) Although they're spending the money immediately. Or Speaker 8 (0:45) they're spending all the money immediately. And more than that, it is not clear to me there are any scoreable savings at all from abolishing the triple lock. Speaker 3 (0:53) The elephant in the room is that the pensioner population is a massive voting bloc. The politician in me says, be very careful. Speaker 8 (1:05) So we are in the studio in Shoreditch, Hoxton. Where are we? Hoxton. In Hoxton. I always get confused. And the Labour Party conference has ended. We did our hot take after Andy Burnham's speech on Tuesday. Yvette arrived home last night and it turns out she's been giving our summer interviews some extra publicity. Take a listen. Speaker 5 (1:26) I am still angry about the Conservatives abolishing Sure Start. as I told George Osborne to his face this summer. Speaker 5 (1:38) That changes now. I can announce we will bring back those Sure Start health services into every family centre, reaching up to a thousand family hubs over the next two years. Sure Start, one of the party's greatest achievements, restored to families throughout the land. Speaker 5 (2:06) George Osborne, short starts back. Speaker 3 (2:10) It's making me nostalgic. I know. I used to appear all the time at Labour conferences and people's speeches. Did you get long claps? Well, normally the attacks on me did. Speaker 3 (2:21) You are Speaker 8 (2:21) still so popular at the Labour Party conference. Speaker 3 (2:25) Yeah, they love me, really. And we did a very good interview, Yvette and I, in the summer. Although I will tell you that afterwards, her media team, which is run by Damien McBride, back from the political dead, he says on the WhatsApp group, great interview with Yvette, George and team. I think her exchange with you, George, on Sure Start is going to be the news. I was reading it thinking, I think her attack on Keir Starmer might be the news. Well, it wasn't an attack on Keir Starmer. It was more like everything he got wrong as prime minister. But anyway, thank you, Yvette. I love being back at the Labour conference. Speaker 8 (3:01) And I think Yvette's comments on Keir Starmer did make some news. Yes. Speaker 3 (3:06) But can I give Yvette one piece of advice? Not that she'll want it at all. She says Sure Start's back. I don't think they're calling it Sure Start. I mean, aren't they calling it these family hubs? I mean... If you're going to do it, if you're going to say, oh, we're bringing it back, it's like the Ron Seal ad. Do what it says on the tin. Call it Sure Start. Because as far as I can see, I think she had to put it in the speech there. Hubs. Hubs are the thing, not Sure Start. Well, look, George Speaker 8 (3:36) Osborne, favourite villain, gets a clap. Sure Start gets big claps. Speaker 3 (3:40) Yeah. Bit of free political advice there to the Labour government. I Speaker 8 (3:43) think she will. On how to do it. I think she'll take that on board. Speaker 3 (3:47) Yeah. Good. Anyway, I know she listened. So thank you, Yvette. Well, Yvette got back last night, but I saw a couple of other people who got back from the Labour conference last night. I saw Kanishka Narayan, who's the AI minister in the cabinet, and Chancellor John Healey. First time I'd seen him actually in his new role. They were both at the British Museum last night where we had a big dinner for... the Lee family, who are the family who own Samsung, and they have an amazing collection of Korean treasures, which are now, as of today, on show at the museum. Speaker 8 (4:16) John Healy, I mean, look, after all those days of the Labour Party conference, having to make a big speech and then try to veto all the different things that Andy Burnham and other cabinet ministers' speeches, which cost loads of money, which can't be afforded, you'd think you'd be so exhausted, you'd either want to sit down in front of the TV or go to the pub. We used to take our kids to a musical. I went to Wicked on the night after a Labour conference lots of times. Speaker 3 (4:43) Did you not just fall asleep in the musical? Yeah, Speaker 8 (4:45) but there's nothing more enjoyable than Speaker 7 (4:47) falling asleep Speaker 8 (4:48) at the theatre. I mean, I spend most of my time at theatres asleep. But... To go to a British Museum dinner on the Thursday night, I mean, that is beyond the call of duty. What a public servant John Healy is. Speaker 3 (4:58) Well, it is the call of duty. I mean, Speaker 8 (4:59) he Speaker 3 (4:59) was there. I don't think I'm betraying much when I say I don't think he was there to see the moon vases and the beautiful Korean calligraphy. He was there to talk to Samsung about investment into the UK, which is what you and I are paying a salary to do. Now, I admire... When the lights Speaker 8 (5:14) go down, John Healy is still at work. Speaker 3 (5:18) Yeah. No, I actually thought, God, you wouldn't have got me to do that. Nor me. Anyway, we are going to talk about on this show. We are going to talk about the aftermath of the Labour conference, about Andy Burnham's speech, which we did the hot take on. But now the dust has settled. Were our predictions or our instant interpretation of that speech correct? And what are the what are the loose threads and the issues that are now running as a result, particularly on social care? and on Europe. We're going to look at both of those things. Speaker 8 (5:49) Then Kemi Badenoch's got her pre-conference interview with Tim Shipman in The Spectator off to Birmingham for the weekend. Andy Burnham has set the agenda. How is Kemi Badenoch going to respond? And can she translate the improvements she's had in her polling in the last year into improvements for the Conservative Party's polling, which has proved rather more stubborn to deliver? And Speaker 3 (6:12) there's a big question whether anyone... in the real world, anyone in the country is paying attention to any of this because of course the news has also been dominated by the arrests near the RAF base Fairford and the subsequent release of the people arrested on bail, the news of the attempted hijack it looks like of the plane flying to Tel Aviv overnight. And what does this mean about the kind of world we're in and particularly for Britain? Is this a proxy war? Is this a cold war? What's going on in terms of how we deal with this sort of grey zone of our conflict with Russia and Iran and other adversaries? And how should we deal with it? How should the British state cope with it? So we're going to be looking at the news that I suspect most people have been following over the last week or so. Speaker 8 (6:59) But we're going to start with Andy Burnham's big speech. Our hot take is still out there online. You can see it on YouTube or on normal places you hear your podcast. Had loads of people listen to it. And I think we gave a pretty good first response. The striking thing today, Andy Burnham's big messages on social care, on Europe, still reverberating through the news. But of course... It's kind of a back to business as usual a bit. Nigel Farage speaking in Doncaster. I mentioned Kemi Badenoch. Today is the day when early release is happening. Prisoners being released the first tranche under the early release scheme. As Speaker 3 (7:37) they come out of prison, they go, thanks, Prime Minister. Speaker 8 (7:40) If Speaker 3 (7:40) you're in number 10, you go, no, shut up. Speaker 8 (7:42) I know. And poor old Alex Norris, who is the Lord Chancellor, is having his installation in the Royal Courts of Justice in all the robes today, which is just like... really unfortunate timing for him. But I mean, I think the striking thing, you know, just to say and to note, we mentioned the fact that in Andy's speech on Tuesday, there wasn't a lot of mention of, you know, defence and defence spending and those big dilemmas. Actually, when you think about it, he didn't really talk about policing or crime and the safety on our streets or prisons and early release or really immigration. small boats, all of those issues which are central to Nigel Farage's and Kemmy Badenoch's agendas. It wasn't that he argued a different line. He just didn't really engage on those things. Quite striking when you think about it. Speaker 3 (8:37) Yes, I think you're being a little bit unfair on immigration. He did have a couple of lines. He didn't have any policy to announce on immigration, but he did say, you know, he made immigration one of the kind of two or three key priorities. Speaker 3 (8:49) Immigration control, I should say. We should maybe listen to the peroration just to take us all back to that moment, because it's definitely set the political agenda for the autumn. It's time to draw a line. Speaker 6 (9:02) to move beyond a decade of drift and division, to bring a spirit of unity and positivity back to our country, to unlock the working-class aspiration that is still there in every postcode in this great land. All together now, we can do it. We will believe again. We will hope again. Thank you conference! Speaker 3 (9:33) I mean, let's be clear. I think the Labour conference justified or set the seal on the defenestration and decapitation of Keir Starmer, didn't it? I mean, I don't think anyone who had gone to that conference thought, did we make the right decision to get rid of Keir Starmer? Because I think they all have sat there in the hall thinking, can you imagine if Keir Starmer was giving this speech? And there was remarkably little trouble. I mean, given there's just been a coup, you didn't hear from the... you know, decapitated former leaders. And, and in some ways, it's, it's, you know, we've talked about this, well, it's sort of politics back. That's the kind of speech you would expect a prime minister who's just got a big majority to give. It's just, we haven't heard it for two years since that big majority was created. And so Andy Burnham, I think, energised Labour. And they definitely have come away with a spring in the step thinking, you know, this election is up for grabs. And of course, they're now ahead in the polls, ahead of the Tories and ahead of reform. Speaker 6 (10:35) We'll Speaker 3 (10:36) see how long that lasts. But of course, looming now is the budget in a couple of weeks time and all the issues that you just mentioned that he didn't really mention. Above all, the state of the economy and the big tax and spending decisions, which ultimately crippled Starmer. Speaker 8 (10:52) It's right. We talked about on Tuesday. whether he was seeking to build that centre-left coalition, bring back green voters, bring over Lib Dems, and also, I think very importantly for Andy, the working class which his dad and his family represent, which he feels have been ignored by politics for too long. Can I ask you one Speaker 3 (11:20) question about that? Sure. Because I've been meaning to ask you since I heard that speech. Speaker 3 (11:26) Maybe I'm getting this wrong, but my memory of sort of Tony Blair was that he was trying to get the Labour Party out of just being the working class party. And he was trying to reach into the middle class. And, you know, he was trying to say, we've got to be Mondeo man. If you remember all that Worcester woman and Florida families, families who went on vacation to Florida. Speaker 3 (11:48) And both Starmer, but particularly Andy Burnham, it's all about the working class. The working class, statistically, people who self-identify as working class, is only a portion of the population. There's a very large portion of the population who identify as middle class. And I think it's generally the case that middle class voters are the people who Labour were winning over at the last election. Speaker 8 (12:08) That's right. And if you look at the characterisation of the Labour vote compared to 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago... much more likely to be graduate, much more likely to live in cities, much more likely to have a higher income. And what Andy Byrne is trying to do is to bring back some of that lost vote. But I think in his mind, this is a pro-European lost vote. I think it's a bit nostalgic. My sense in Makerfield, in Morley, where I was an MP, there's a much harsher view of what needs to be done and what's gone wrong. And that's why I think these issues around kind of crime and borders, I think you have to talk about. He's clearly, I mean, where I disagree with you is I don't think I can think of Labour leaders who are so willing just to take open policy risk. I mean, just to go out there and say, you know, I just think we should change the political system. And let's just have... changing the voting laws. I just think we should go back and reopen the whole Brexit settlement. And I don't know what the answer is going to be, but let us just put on the table, should we join the European Union again? I just want a national care service. And I don't think it means a tax rise, but I just want to start the debate. And I think, you know, he's clearly decided that he needs to be big and bold. Speaker 8 (13:33) But there were good reasons why in the past Labour leaders were a bit more cautious sometimes about setting hares running, because you don't quite know where it's going to end up. We're going to talk about those issues in a moment. But if you just take another issue today, which is on the non-political agenda, Speaker 4 (13:48) but Speaker 8 (13:48) Andy Burnham is kind of allowing it to be on the political agenda, which is what's happening with the Premier League and Man City. Now, this is very complicated. You should set Speaker 3 (13:57) the context. Manchester City look like they're going to be heavily fined and potentially... in effect, kicked out of the Premier League for abuses of the rules around funding. And it's been years in the making. There's been a long investigation. That's Speaker 8 (14:10) right. Andy Burnham, when asked the question, consistent with that, you know, let me just give you my view. Let's just start the debate. Says that he is worried about what is potentially going to happen because of the impact it will have on UAE investment into Manchester. Now, Speaker 3 (14:28) That's because Abu Dhabi own Manchester City, we should say. Yeah. Speaker 8 (14:31) Now, football fans all across the country, I mean, I'm not sure whether it makes any sense to take away Man City's title from 10 years ago, let alone to... give it to Man United who would have won. I'm sure there will have to be a punishment to Man City. It's going to be tough because you have to apply the rules. But frankly, it is not the job of the Prime Minister to start getting involved in giving opinions about what the Premier League should or shouldn't do with Man City. Football fans across the country will be thinking, you know, are you trying to bias the Premier League in favour of Man City because, you know... of Manchester when actually justice requires a different outcome. If I were the Prime Minister, I just would not be getting involved in that at all. And if I was one of his advisors, I would say, Andy, there are limits to the things you should just decide to have opinions on. Speaker 3 (15:19) Well, it's interesting because I think on the substance, Abu Dhabi has been a huge investor into Manchester and one of the reasons why. There's been that turnaround in the economic fortunes of Manchester. And I remember as Chancellor, I was there at the opening of all the brand new facilities around Manchester City Football Club. So I can actually see other prime ministers wanting to send a quiet word. Speaker 8 (15:43) Tempted. Speaker 3 (15:44) And potentially say behind the scenes, can someone go and sort out this kind of football row so it doesn't damage relations with the UAE? And just like John Healy turning up at the Samsung dinner. They're trying to... Of course. Keep the investment flowing into Britain. I think what is interesting is, you know, he is freewheeling a bit. And if the critique of Starmer was, you know, he operated in a tiny bubble and, you know, Speaker 8 (16:07) no Speaker 3 (16:08) one was... I Speaker 8 (16:08) mean, Speaker 3 (16:08) Andy Burnham feels like at times... operating in a bubble of one. He's just saying what he thinks. And because he's essentially been a one-man band, I mean, I know he had a good team in Manchester, but he was the mayor of Manchester. He went around saying things and it earned him a reputation for he says what he thinks, he's approachable, he's honest and so on. Speaker 8 (16:26) But he's not the mayor of Manchester anymore. A Newcastle villa. Arsenal, Norwich fans, all thinking, Prime Minister, don't get involved. I mean, I put Norwich into that list because we Speaker 3 (16:37) actually Speaker 8 (16:39) had a bit of a run in the UEFA Cup in the early 1990s. You're putting yourself Speaker 3 (16:42) in the same category. Anyway, yes. I'm Speaker 8 (16:44) just saying, I think there are a lot of football fans who feel strongly about