Trump Plans to Shove What Where?

Pod Save America

With under a month until the midterms, hosts analyze a wave of New York Times/Siena polls showing Democrats leading or tied in Senate races

Key takeaways

• NYT/Siena polls show Democratic leads in James Tallarico (TX), Mary Peltola (AK), Sherrod Brown (OH), and tight races in KS and IA, driven by Trump's low approval and economic frustration.
• Trump reversed his stance on vote-by-mail to urge early voting, then doxxed Sen. Tom Cotton over a daylight saving time bill dispute.

Main topics

• Midterm polling in red states
• Trump's campaign strategy and gaffes

Notable quotes

"We're going to win or we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass, okay?"

Conclusion

The episode underscores a significant Democratic momentum in red state

Transcript preview

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It's not just a book about guns. It's about why a country has never quite understood its own problem and why you can't fix what you refuse to see clearly. Get The American Way of Killing at pushkin.fm or wherever audiobooks are sold. Speaker 7 (1:54) For many of us, going further isn't a choice. It's a feeling we can't ignore because ambition has a way of outgrowing where it began. Speaker 7 (2:05) Turning dreams into direction. Speaker 7 (2:11) Every journey brings us closer to the life we imagine. Speaker 7 (2:17) So, where will your journey take you? Etihad. Beyond borders. Speaker 1 (2:45) Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. I'm Tommy Vitor. On today's show, we'll talk about the slew of new polls showing Democrats making big gains in red states in both the Senate and governor's races, and why Democrats are expanding the House map with just four weeks to go. We'll check in on some of the individual races, how Trump is dealing with it all, not well, and that unbelievable New York Times story about Kristi Noem buying luxury jets from a political donor at huge markups with your money. Then speaking of those governor's races, you'll hear Tommy's conversation with Texas's Gina Hosa, who's opened up a lead on Greg Abbott in the latest Time Sienna poll. She stopped by the office to check that out. All right, guys, there are less than 30 days until the midterms, and the October surprise is already here. Just when Democrats started letting themselves feel hope again, Republicans went ahead and unleashed their secret weapon. Speaker 8 (3:37) So you know all these fake polls. They don't account for one thing. They don't account for the fact that Trump is out campaigning. They never thought this was going to happen. And it's their fault because they unleashed us. We're going to win or we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass, okay? Speaker 1 (3:58) Sounds painful. Jeez. Don't want that. One challenge for Republicans is that their secret weapon also seems to be the Democrat secret weapon. The latest batch of New York Times Sienna polls show Trump's approval rating at 40 % and his disapproval at 56 % in five red states that he won by 11 to 16 points in 2024. Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. One in five Trump voters in those states now disapprove of the president's job performance, which is the main reason Democrats are now leading or effectively tied in every Senate race. We've got James Tallarico up 51-45 over Ken Paxton. Mary Peltola up 50-43 over Dan Sullivan. Sherrod Brown over John Husted, 49-46. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton is tied with Roger Marshall, 45-45. And in Iowa, Josh Turek is just one point behind Ashley Hinson, well within the poll's margin of error, as are most of these margins. I'll stop there and let you guys talk about your overall reaction to the Senate polls and what specifically jumped out at you in the crosstabs. Speaker 2 (5:09) What's he shoving up our ass? Speaker 1 (5:11) Just himself? I guess the victory, the great victory. His Alabama Speaker 2 (5:14) rally that Speaker 1 (5:15) was Speaker 2 (5:15) half empty? Speaker 1 (5:16) Yeah. The Ohio one. Remember, he got really mad about any news report showing that the upper rafters of the Ohio rally were not completely full. And it wasn't the only one. Speaker 6 (5:24) And it would be worse, right? Because we shoved up our asses and we wouldn't be ready for it. You know, wouldn't it be like, you know, because you need to prepare for that. Right. That's what you're saying. But back to the poll. Speaking Speaker 3 (5:34) of Speaker 6 (5:35) polling. Speaking of polling. Just a couple of things that jumped out. Independence favored Dems by 24 points and by 30 on which party does better for ordinary people. I thought that was big. One thing that just wasn't exactly wasn't in this poll, but it was in the last time's poll. I believe we have Alaska prefers Peltola, but still prefers a Republican Senate. We saw the opposite where where Mainers. preferred Susan Collins, but by big margins wanted a Democratic Senate. And how does that shake out? Does that resolve in both places, in one place but not the other, I think is interesting. And then the other was just that you have this preference for a Republican Senate in these, these are very Trump-heavy states, as you said, but there's always a, they lean towards preferring having Republicans in control, but also a big desire for a Czech. on Trump by huge margins. They want a Senate that they want. They want a candidate that'll check Trump, but they also want a Republican Senate. And I do think underneath this, this is Republicans paying for the required loyalty test of being part of Trump's party, right? They can't Speaker 3 (6:34) break with him. They can't say they're going to hold him accountable. They can't say any of those things that you would see in a normal race like this. Yeah. Speaker 2 (6:40) My reaction to those polls is I wanted to roll up my newspaper and smoke it. Did you? It's just a. And you're reading the physical times. Pure uncut. Speaker 3 (6:49) District of Columbia. Roll up your phone. You have to roll up Speaker 2 (6:51) my computer screen. Just Speaker 3 (6:53) opening the big old pages there. Yeah, just love it. Drinking your little coffee and a slice of cantaloupe or something. On my train. Speaker 2 (7:00) Honey, did you see these polls? Yeah, honey. Donald's going to shove these up our... Ironically, the Texas number, I think, was the least surprising to me. I think Tallarico's a good candidate. Paxton's the worst. And the Latino... The lead was a little surprising. The size of the lead was Speaker 5 (7:14) a little surprising. Speaker 2 (7:14) The size of the lead is like, again, it's over 50. It's hopium. It's a lot of hopium. For all the conversation about James Tallarico and Black voters, he had a 90 % margin in that poll, which would be the best statewide margin for a Texas candidate in recent history. Better than Kamala Harris, better than Biden. The Alaska numbers are exciting. Paltola has a track record of overperforming, so hopefully, fingers crossed. Kansas makes me a little nervous. Adam Hamilton at 45. 45 is not really a win number. Yeah. Got to get a little higher there. I feel like that race just started, though. It did just start. I feel like I was barely paying attention to it. Same. Speaker 6 (7:52) If you want to understand… What's happening? Just, you can go watch. There's a clip of, at the state fair. There's a debate at the state fair. Yes. So you're going to say, Speaker 1 (8:01) listen to the conversation that Dan Speaker 6 (8:02) had with Adam Hamilton. And of course, and then follow that. You didn't let me finish. And then after you finish that, listen to Dan's conversation. I mean, Speaker 2 (8:09) Roger Marshall was like having, throwing women in prison for not paying bills for medical debt. Pretty small medical debt. So like, I think I'd like to see Josh Turek had a. in Iowa, but it's the margin of error race. So like, it's exciting. I'm worried about this potential response bias. I'm worried about Democrats answering polls. Ultimately, every pollster is really a model maker because they're all weighting the numbers they get in and trying Speaker 1 (8:37) to get it right. But we'll see. I, just because I didn't want to be too hopeful, I went back and looked at the last set of New York Times Siena polls in 2024. One thing that stuck out is even, remember like, so Kamala Harris was ahead in a few states behind in a few states in the red states she was behind in the blue and the blue wall states she was like a point ahead in michigan and uh in wisconsin i think she was maybe tied in pennsylvania but she never hit 50 in any of those even the last one so like it is it is notable that in new york times sienna polls we have both talarico mary peltola uh hitting 50 and 51 uh this far up now that's also to say If it's only the people who hit 50 to 51 who end up winning, we would miss the Senate by about a point. Speaker 6 (9:25) Yeah. What about Speaker 1 (9:26) us, Dave? Speaker 6 (9:27) Yeah, the other thing that jumped out is obviously you have Tallarico as a huge, it was 23-point advantage on character. 23? Speaker 1 (9:34) That's crazy. Well, especially because if we all remember at the beginning of the race there, it was like Tallarico and the vegan and the six-gender Jimmy, and it's like he may not pull it out, but it's not going to be because. like his character was somehow defective to voters, it will be because Republicans came home and decided to hold their nose and vote for Ken Paxton. Speaker 6 (9:53) But if you look at the other character numbers, Democrats in all of these states, which are very red states, are just seen as having better character than their Republican opponents. And so that was the positive view of it. The other was, look, Talrico is a great candidate. Ken Paxton is the worst person they could have chosen. Imagine Cornyn was in this race, right? What would those numbers look like? How many points does Paxton lose because he's Ken Paxton versus Tabaka? We don't know, but it's a couple, right? And so if this race looked a little bit more like what you were seeing across the state, which, you know, candidates of varying quality, but none as bad as Ken Paxton, it would be closer. And what would this look like overall? You step back, you'd say, all right, in the... In the races where we have a better chance of winning, where Trump either won the state by a small margin or lost, it's very, very close. And in the states that we're reaching for, it's very, very close. And collectively, if there was a two or three or four point polling mistake, you can imagine waking up in a huge Democratic wave in which we almost win the Senate. And that is my dark thought when I read these polls overall. Speaker 2 (10:54) I heard that Paxton shifted his ad traffic to 75 % positive because his favorables are just so bad. But... Also bad, his face. Also bad, the ads. You see the ad with his, I think, soon-to-be ex-wife. Yeah, she didn't even say his name. She doesn't mention his name, Speaker 3 (11:12) but basically says pull. And she's a— Pull the full Republican ticket. A successful politician in her own Speaker 1 (11:17) right. Speaker 3 (11:17) Yeah, she's a Speaker 1 (11:17) state senator. One thing that I think explains the polls or says good things about the Democratic recruitment effort. So voters in these polls still think the Democratic Party as a whole is too far left. 52%. think that the Democratic Party is too far left in these polls, which is not entirely unsurprising because they're red states. Only 35 % say their actual Democratic Senate candidate is too far left. And so the candidate brands are all running, outrunning the National Party brand. It's true of Speaker 3 (11:48) the Speaker 1 (11:48) Republicans too, but not by as much. Like Republicans aren't seen as extreme. But by the Democratic, by more. Speaker 3 (11:52) More, for sure, for sure. And Speaker 1 (11:53) so I do think, you Speaker 3 (11:55) know, Speaker 1 (11:55) for all that we have maligned Chuck Schumer for Maine. For some of the other ones, like you got to give, I mean, Mary Pultola and Roy Cooper and like. Sherrod Brown. Sherrod Brown and like these were all. These are great. These were good picks. These were good picks. And it also shows that like, you know, it is important to maybe get candidates that at least appear to voters not as far left as the national party for all the talk online otherwise. Speaker 6 (12:24) And the other side of it too is. uh, there's all this lamentation about, uh, the, you know, a random DSA member in New York is fucking us in the Midwest or whatever. And that may be true there. It is in these polls that people think the party is too far to the left, but people respond by doing politics and they make their own argument and they make their case and they, and they talk about idiots Speaker 1 (12:42) because they, they know they're voting for the person on the ballot in their state, not the random person they saw on Fox news in New York city, Speaker 2 (12:49) you know, Speaker 1 (12:49) or a, or a streamer they don't like or streamer they don't like. Yeah. Um, Also, it jumped out at me just how bad the voters view the economy in all these states. Like nearly three quarters in Alaska call conditions fair or poor, two thirds in Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, even Texas, 56 % say fair or poor. So people are just fucking pissed. Speaker 2 (13:10) Yeah, Speaker 1 (13:10) he's bad on all the issues. All Speaker 6 (13:12) the ones that matter. And just one other note, it's also independents are furious by huge margins. Even if these races are closed, it's because these are Republican states. Independents have really turned. And I think that's why you see even in a place like Ohio, Trump going to Ohio, because they just need to get their Republican base voters to turn out because they're having such trouble with either maybe people that voted for Trump that weren't super fans or for the Democrats. Speaker 1 (13:35) I don't know if you guys heard Nate Cohn talk about these polls on The Daily, but... He pointed out that all five of these states are states that did not vote for Trump in the 2016 Republican primary. Isn't that interesting? And that like maybe these are more sort of traditional conservatives who were not, who did not go like full mag at the beginning and that there's something there about Trump that they, that maybe they turned against them. So those are the red states. What do you guys, why do you guys think the race is in the blue states, notably Maine and Michigan are so much closer, at least? they have been in the times polls but i guess overall the polling average too i Speaker 2 (14:11) think it's demographics and then the candidates i mean the demographics is that a lot of the shift we're seeing in texas is latino voters michigan has a far smaller percentage of latino voters than texas so does maine maine is old and white and those voters are more likely to be on the trump train Also in Maine, Susan Collins is historically a strong candidate and an over-performer. Troy Jackson has struggled a lot since they made the switch from Plattner. And then in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed's a great speaker. He's a great communicator. We just watched him on Fox. We'll play those clips later. But he's got to overcome Islamophobia and then the lingering wounds from the Democratic primary and all the spending against him. So it's just challenging. Speaker 1 (14:48) Yeah. The Troy Jackson thing is the mystery of why Troy Jackson's unfavorables are so high is like just bizarre. Speaker 2 (14:57) I bet the process, they probably, I mean, similar with Kamala, like people hated the process through which she became the nominee. I bet they hate the process through which he became the nominee in May. Yeah. Speaker 1 (15:07) I do think that there, his campaign, even in the last couple of weeks, I think even since that Times poll came out, has really been sort of kicking it up into high gear. And they're sort of going after Collins on the ProPublica story. The debates are this week, start this week, so that should be pretty interesting. I know. A lot of campaigning. On the governor's races, the poll has Rob Sand up 11 in Iowa. Gina Hinojosa, who you'll hear from again in a minute, up three in Texas over Greg Abbott. Amy Acton up four in Ohio over Vivek Ramaswamy. Um, and, uh, but I think it's fair to say that the Alaska governor's race where, uh, Jonathan Christ Tompkins is up for, uh, in Kansas, uh, where Cindy Holsher is in striking distance. We're not really on most people's radars. Uh, how much do you guys think the governor's races and Senate races in each state are distinct from each other versus both being part of the same broader political swing towards Dems that we're seeing in the other polls? I think that traditionally there's, uh, there Speaker 6 (16:07) is a wave. The wave will. put races that would otherwise been out of reach within reach. But, you know, look at Iowa, right? You have Rob Sand who's been elected statewide before. And then you have a candidate like Zach Lane, who's, you know, lives in Kansas and is like pretty extreme and said some crazy shit about vaccines and abortion. All of a sudden you see a difference there where, you know, Turek has an uphill battle with someone that wasn't as well known to the state. So I think some of it is just the. the like, you know, unique qualities of the candidates and the fact that people just do view governor's races differently than they view Senate races, right? There's a reason that there's a Democratic senator in Kentucky, a state that is completely out of reach on the Senate side, right? People are willing to put aside some of their ideological desires for the federal Speaker 2 (16:52) government when they're voting for someone at the state level. I think like a red or blue wave will lift all boats, but you see more split. tickets with governors than other places. Like Massachusetts, we had so many Republican governors. Right now, Phil Scott, a Republican, is governor of Vermont, very blue state. I also think, well, this cycle, at least, the governor's races are just like chronically underfunded on the Democratic side. Jonathan Martin had a great piece about this in Politico. Some of it is the benefits of incumbency. Greg Abbott in Texas can go to all the businesses with interest before the state and very corruptly raise a ton of money from them. to them in like unlimited ways. But also there's like the broader funding ecosystem. Like I think Democratic donors see the Senate and the House as a check on Trump. They don't think that way about governor's races. We probably should because of the role that they will play in redistricting and in 2028. But the spending advantage is like six to one in Florida, three to one in Texas, two and a half to one in Georgia, two to one in Wisconsin. Speaker 2 (17:50) It's a huge problem because these guys, they're going to have a lot of power. They're going to have a lot of impact on 2028. And I think it's something we need to fix as a party. Speaker 1 (17:57) I was kind of looking at the incumbency issue another way. I take your point that if you're the incumbent, there's all kinds of like goodies you can sprinkle on the state. But people are so pissed. And there's such an anti-incumbent mood right now that is like, I think when we look at this election, people are obviously very pissed at Trump. They're pissed at the Republican Congress. But even if you look at these governor's polls, the one race where the Republican is clearly ahead is in Kansas. And that is a state where the only state where there is a retiring Democratic governor who's currently the incumbent. And then in the Senate side, you've got a tie race in Kansas. And all these other ones you have, like in Iowa, Kim Reynolds was governor. And so now you have. Rob, right, who's saying like, we're going to get, it's like a shift in leadership from what we've had over the last however many years. Gina's going to have that argument in Texas, which is, you know, at least in this poll, she's ahead by a couple. Same with Amy Acton over Vivek, right? There's Speaker 2 (18:53) a Speaker 1 (18:53) Republican governor there. So I think there's an, in some ways, it's an easier argument that's probably helping some of these Democratic challenges. I Speaker 2 (19:00) think it's a Speaker 1 (19:00) political Speaker 2 (19:01) advantage. Speaker 1 (19:01) I Speaker 2 (19:01) was just Speaker 1 (19:01) saying fundraising. Speaker 2 (19:02) Oh, no, I Speaker 1 (19:02) know, I know. Because Speaker 2 (19:03) you're Speaker 1 (19:03) like. Abbott is just so Speaker 2 (19:04) corrupt. He goes to all these businesses in Texas and just has them cut him like a million dollar check. Speaker 1 (19:08) Yeah, but I do think I think that there's something about Incumbency and people just being fucking pissed at the leadership in their state and in Congress that's going to have an effect But we'll see Speaker 5 (19:27) Pod Save America is brought to you by Article. Article makes it effortless to build a home that lasts without the boutique markup. 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