Obama's Campaign Manager's 2028 Scouting Report

Pod Save America

Jon Favreau sits down with legendary Democratic strategist David Plouffe to discuss the evolving political landscape ahead of the 2026 midte

Key takeaways

• The Democratic Party's current strength is largely due to Donald Trump's weak political position rather than internal improvements.
• Candidates who overperform in 2026 will likely be those who build personal connections with voters beyond just being anti-Republican.

Main topics

• 2026 midterm elections strategy
• Democratic brand rehabilitation

Notable quotes

We've got a massive problem. But I think what we're going to see is candidates in certain places have begun to show us the way forward here about what a Democratic offering can be in 2026.

Conclusion

Plouffe emphasizes that while the Democratic Party benefits from Trump's weakness, long-term success

Transcript preview

Speaker 3 (0:20) Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. Today I'm joined by my old friend and colleague, David Plouffe, the former White House senior advisor to Barack Obama, as well as his 2008 campaign manager and a senior advisor to Kamala Harris's 107-day campaign. Plouffe's one of the smartest and most committed people I've ever met in Democratic politics. So when I saw that he published a piece in the New York Times, about the Democratic Party's new early state calendar and how he thinks it will fundamentally reshape the 2028 primary, I had a million questions I wanted to ask him. I first got his thoughts on the final stretch of the 2026 midterms and what he thinks Democrats need to do to close the deal with voters and all the key states and races. And then we dug into the 2028 primary, which, believe it or not, will basically begin the day after the midterms are over. We talked about the calendar. strategy, and he had some interesting things to say about some of the potential candidates like AOC, John Ossoff, and Kamala Harris. It was, as it always is with Plouffe, a great conversation that I could have kept going for hours. We'll get to it in a minute, but before we do, please consider becoming a paying subscriber to Friends of the Pod. Subscribers get access to ad-free episodes of this show, Pod Save America, and all of your favorite Crooked Pods, as well as special subscriber-exclusive shows like our extra episode of Pod Save America, Pod Save America Only Friends, where this week Lovett and Dan broke down Darlene Graham's win in South Carolina and lots more. If you want to check it out and get access to even more newsletters, discounted CrookedCon tickets, all kinds of good stuff, head on over to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe. All right, here's David Plouffe. David Plouffe, welcome back to Pod Save America. Mr. Speaker 1 (2:05) Favreau, it's always good to be with you. Speaker 3 (2:06) You too. I looked at last time you were on was January and you and Pfeiffer talked about the Democratic brand, which has now been completely rehabilitated. But I was going to ask, like, now that the first ballots are set to go out next week, how much progress do you think the party has made over the last seven months in trying to fix some of the problems you and Dan talked about, you've written about? Put it another way, like how much of the Democrats relatively strong political position right now would you say is attributable to Donald Trump's incredibly weak political position and how much is the party's actually done some improvement? I Speaker 1 (2:46) think all of it almost is attributable to Donald Trump and the fact that they're in power. So listen, there is to be an optimist for a minute. We've got some great candidates out there that I think are kind of defining for people in their own way. what a Democrat can be in 2026. So that's great. But the party writ large, obviously, you just look at the numbers. I mean, we have, you know, we've got a massive problem. And listen, I don't know yet. Neither do you. No one can know for sure what's going to happen this November. But, you know, it could be more like 2006, potentially atmospherically. And so the question is, are we going to take full advantage of that? We would take more advantage of it if our brand was stronger. But I think what we're going to see is candidates in certain places have begun to show us the way forward here about what a Democratic offering can be in 2026. So and that's going to be the important thing to look at is when we see after the election and look at the data, the Democrats who overperform kind of the mean, even though this should be a fairly good year for us. Speaker 3 (3:45) going Speaker 1 (3:45) to have people overperform that. And to understand why is going to be really important going forward. Speaker 3 (3:49) So I know to a large extent, this depends on the race, but what do you think the frontline House and Senate candidates in the most competitive races have to do in the next 60-ish days that they haven't done yet to close the deal with voters? Speaker 1 (4:03) Well, I think in most of these races, you're going to have five, six, 7 % of people who are still undecided. So you've got to make the case to them. And I think what's interesting is I think the case against the Republicans is largely set in stone. You've got to continue to remind people of this and particularly for some of these incumbent House Republicans and incumbent Senate Republicans, make sure they own all the downside of Trump. You've got to tie them to higher prices and health care and all the things people obviously are very upset about. But I think the candidates I think will do the best are able to convince people that they are not just a flawed alternative. that there's actually something that they offer that might be interesting and new and exciting to people. Then you've got to focus on turnout and make sure that we're getting strong enough turnout. And I think in the red states, particularly in center races, but this is true in some of the outer edge house races, you know, we all see the polls. Maybe they're all bullshit, but let's say they're accurate. And, you know, we've got people in states like Iowa, in Texas, in Alaska, you know. who are winning, but they're still at like 46, 47, 48. And I always remind people, like when we see a poll that has a Democrat at 47 and a Republican at 42, yeah, it's better than the alternative, but that's 89 % of the vote. What's happening to the other 11 %? And so for these candidates, you have to focus on that. And the good ones know this, which is, let's say in that scenario, most of that 11 % is going to go to the Republican in some of these tough places. So you've got to figure out where's the 3 % of that, you know, 11 % that's out there that I can bring home. So that really is the focus, I think, of all of these candidates is, and I think it's going to require in some of the toughest districts and toughest Senate states, it can't just be anti-Republican vote. That is why we're in the position we're in, and it's a great position. But, and this is where like a James Tallarico, you know, maybe we'll see this with an Osborne in Nebraska, a Turek, these candidates who are exceptional candidates. you know, have the ability to get that extra one or two percent because of who they are, not just because they're a Democrat. Speaker 3 (6:06) Yeah, this kind of leads to my next question, which is I saw this week Troy Jackson released his first ads. They were like positive bio spots. Abdul El-Sayed mixed it up with Jesse Waters on Fox. I saw some people say, you know, these candidates shouldn't do all that much to make the race about them. Everything should be about trying to tie. their opponents to Donald Trump. Obviously, everyone has to do a little bit of both. But what is your sense of the right balance Speaker 1 (6:35) there? Well, I think sort of atmospherically, most of these Republican candidates are already paying the price for being in Donald Trump's party and for a lot of them doing his bidding. So, of course, over the next few weeks, and you're going to want to continue to remind people of that. And, you know, the most interesting way to do that, I think, is to bring forward voters and voices who can speak to that. particularly people who said, listen, I voted for this person in the past or I voted for Donald Trump. I can't do it anymore. I've switched. But I think to get again, I'm very focused on states where and in the Senate in particular, you know, this is hostile political territory for us. So I do think you've got to give people comfort that you're an alternative that they can trust. So it's a it's a blend. But I think it's always important in campaigns, John. You know this very well. Like you've got to step back and say, what's the thing that voters already know? And so then how do we reinforce that? But where's where's the opening where we can introduce new arguments? Some of those may be new ways to, you know, refresh the argument against Republicans. But I think Democrats have to. And so when I see Jackson and Abdul Al-Sayed and Turek and Rob Sander and all these people, you know, going into hostile places to do interviews, that's what you have to do. I really, really believe that's the case because we're at a point now where anybody who's truly undecided about who to vote for, whether to vote, it's kind of already baked in that they're very unhappy with Donald Trump and the Republicans. So I'm not suggesting you don't continue to remind them that, but that's just a fact. So, and again, I think when we look post-election, the people who overperformed the average Democrat are going to be people who built a relationship with their voters based on who they are, what they're offering. And by the way, particularly where they're different from not just Republicans, but the Democratic Party and the status quo. Those are the candidates that I think they're going to do the best this November. Well, like, Speaker 3 (8:23) I've been thinking about this because it's tough for these congressional candidates, at least, to like really run on much of a... positive agenda when Donald Trump is going to be president for another two years because you don't want to get into the situation where you overpromise something that you just people know that you're not going to be able to deliver. But like and obviously the party hasn't and then maybe that'll change, but I don't think so. There's been no sort of contract with America or even I feel like in 06 there was like an anti-corruption agenda. Yeah. What do you think about that? Like, is it just race by race and people? Talking about individual things that they can do either in the next two years or beyond that? Or how does that work? Speaker 1 (9:02) I think it's very individualized. So I think a national, listen, I think national Democrats should go on a cruise somewhere where there's no cell service and no ability to do interviews and let the candidates take the stage. And by the way, listen, if you look historically, I mean, the contract for America actually, you know, as you know, we've been through this. When you win, you get to say why you won. And when you lose, obviously, everything sticks to you. But the contract with America was not why they won. I mean, the exit polls back in 94 suggested that it was not a core reason that people voted. And the six for six, I think that's what it was called in 06. Like, that's not why Democrats won. So I just think at the end of the day, we should give, particularly when you've got a brand problem as acute as we do, let's just give the individual candidates or like small businesses. You know, let them do what they think is best. Some of them may have very specific policy agenda. Some of them may focus on corruption. Some of them may be more about their biography and kind of their values. So let them do their thing because the overhang of the party, like so right now, like to have Chuck Schumer and Democrats out on the steps saying, here's what we're going to do when we. gain power. That would be a political malpractice of like historical proportions. So I think we should just, that's my view anyway. I think, and it particularly when we do have, not universally, but there are some really strong candidates for the Senate and for the house running who I think are again, showing us what a new version of democratic offering can be. That's quite exciting. And I think their biggest challenge right now. is the Democratic Party brand. So let's not do anything to make that more complicated for them. Speaker 3 (10:41) What are some of the biggest unforced errors that Democrats could make in the next 60 days that worry you? Speaker 1 (10:48) Well, I think it is, you know, I don't think there's going to be a national agenda, but a national agenda. I think having a lot of discussion about the hearings that we're going to have when we take over would be problematical. And I, this can sound. Like, I'm kidding. I'm not like I just think national Democrats should go in hiding and let these individual candidates prosecute their case. And by the way, that's important because we know Donald Trump's not going to go into hiding. Right. So he's going to continue to be out there. He's going to cause, by the way, this ad campaign he's talking about running with all of his money, that's going to be pro-Trump ads. Phenomenally stupid. I think, although, John, you should always step back and say, is there something they see? that maybe we don't see. And the only thing I can think about is it may help them with turnout a little bit. But all those candidates now are going to have to answer to Donald Trump running ads. on all the things that are upsetting voters in their states and districts. So that's the other thing I think about it. Like, let him kind of dominate nationally. Let's make sure we're quiet nationally. And let's let some of these great candidates have the best environment we can imagine in these closing weeks. And as you know, people start voting in about five to six weeks. So this isn't a two-month question. Speaker 3 (11:59) Well, on the Dem side, like the discourse and the coverage, I think, has been dominated for the last... couple weeks, months about this, like, and this is partly because of the primaries and partly because of Republicans, this like DSA left versus center left establishment narrative. Like, how much do you think that or how much do you worry that that might affect the outcome of the midterms? Or is this just an insider thing that most voters are never going to really Speaker 1 (12:30) pay attention to? My view. and it's based a little bit on research I've seen, but also instinct, is it's very much the latter. Like the people that will decide the Iowa governor's race and the Iowa Senate race in Clinton, Iowa, or in Decorah, Iowa, you think they're talking about this democratic divide or in Toledo, Ohio? Absolutely not. And so in those states, you've got Amy Acton, you've got Sherrod Brown, you've got Turek, you've got Sand, just use those examples, who are defining what the Democratic offering is in this election. They're not focused on what happened in those states, even though Michigan's close to them, like what happened in the Michigan primary, what's happening in New York City. They're just not focused on that. Now, I think our presidential race, not in the general election, but in the primary, yeah, that's going to be a really big. piece of it is what are people looking for? And I happen to believe it will probably be more about the person, their biography, their values, their performance than ideology. But that'll be part of it. So I really do not think and by the way, if the Republicans want to go spend a bunch of time saying, well, what you're really electing is Democratic Socialists have at it. Because I don't think that blanket message to me works at all. I think the best thing they can do is try and indict the individual Democrats running in states or districts to the best of their ability. But I think there's going to be a limitation of that as well, because, listen, people are really fucking upset out there and they are ready. to switch, even though they don't like their option to switch to. They like some of the individual Democrats, not the Democratic Party. And so for me, this is the challenge for us over the next number of years and even decade, is we have to get that brand stronger so that we reliably win more elections in more places so that we can have sustained power and control the White House and the Senate. Like, this is existential. And whatever happens in this election, we should not think. or get overly confident that we fixed our problems because we haven't. Yeah. Speaker 3 (14:28) No, that's going to be important because clearly the Biden folks thought that in 22 because the midterms were better than expected. Any long shot races in the midterms you think that would it be worth investing more in right now that people should have their eye on? Speaker 1 (14:42) Well, the question would be, I mean, you you were I mean, you were in Obama's Senate office in 2006, right? OK. And, you know, I was very involved in that election, did a lot of work for Rahm and the DCCC. And, you know, that was the election where there were people who won an election. I remember that the DCCC hadn't supported that surprised the heck everybody. So is that possible this time? I think it's probably less possible in the House just because there are so few real competitive districts. But, you know, is it possible that we could win some House races that Trump won by 12, 14 points? I guess it's possible. I think the surprises will be in the Senate. And what's so exciting about the Senate, now, Senate control is going to be really hard because this is hostile territory. But, boy, we're taking a lot of shots on goal this year. Speaker 3 (15:26) I Speaker 1 (15:26) mean, we've got a lot of races. We can lose most of them and still win. So, you know, the question is, in South Dakota, you know, in Montana, you know, in Nebraska, are there going to be some surprises? Those would be like. If we win any of those, we're going to have a year probably as good as 2006. But, you know, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, by the way, we're now used to saying how competitive like Iowa is and Ohio is. I mean, these are deep red states right now. Yeah. And so, you know,