Beardos, Weirdos, and Donald Trump

Pod Save America

The hosts analyze Donald Trump's midterm campaign tour, highlighting Republican discomfort with his presence and his controversial advocacy for unregulated AI

Key takeaways

• Donald Trump campaigned for Texas AG Ken Paxton despite leaked audio showing Paxton privately calling him a drag on Republican midterm numbers.
• Trump's TIME interview revealed strong support for AI data centers, directly clashing with growing grassroots GOP opposition in key swing states.

Main topics

• Trump's midterm campaign tour & Republican discomfort
• AI regulation & data center backlash

Notable quotes

"No fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals. Just warriors."

Conclusion

The episode underscores the growing friction between Trump's erratic campaigning and Republican electoral

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:00) Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security. You can replace a stolen laptop in 24 hours, but you can't replace feeling safe in your own home. SimpliSafe stops intruders before they get close, protecting what matters most, your peace of mind. Unlike traditional security systems that only alert you after a break-in is already underway, SimpliSafe is built to stop it before it starts. Smart AI-powered cameras watch for potential threats and alert a live US-based security specialist ready to intervene. The agent intervenes in under 30 seconds, speaking through the camera. to stop an intruder in their tracks and calling for an urgent 911 dispatch when it's needed most. Our CEO recently got a SimpliSafe after hearing us read these ads for many years now, and she said that the installation is just as quick and easy as we've made it out to be. So that's always good. She also loves how easy the app is to use, and she loves that she can arm and disarm it from her phone and check the cameras right from her phone. So she's very, very happy. Join the more than 6 million people who entrust SimpliSafe with their home security. Right now, save 60 % off with professional monitoring when you visit simplisafe.com slash crooked. That's simplisafe.com slash crooked. And when you order, please write in Pod Save America in the checkout survey. It lets them know we sent you and really helps support the show. SimpliSafe, ahead of crime in real time. Speaker 8 (1:38) Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, we'll talk about Trump finally hitting the campaign trail, whether Republicans like it or not, and many of them do not. His morally binding, completely voluntary agreement with our AI overlords. Senator Eric Schmidt's national humiliation. Pete Hegseth's national humiliation. And why neither of them think what they did was humiliating, because shame no longer exists. Then, Dan talks with Reverend Adam Hamilton. who's mounting a very serious challenge against Senator Speaker 2 (2:10) Roger Marshall in Kansas. Dan, the buzz around the office is that it was a fantastic interview and that Speaker 7 (2:17) Adam Hamilton's awesome. He is awesome. I just, I encourage everyone to listen. I encourage everyone to support him. I really was Speaker 6 (2:22) very impressed by him in a way in which I've been impressed by a politician in a while. Speaker 8 (2:25) That's exciting. All right, everyone. Well, stay tuned after we blab on about the news for Dan's interview. All right. With 32 days left until the midterms, Donald Trump has finally hit the campaign trail in his so far successful effort to make the election about him and his 38 % approval rating. The Republicans who are actually on the ballot don't seem as enthused about this strategy. But as one Republican operative told Politico, quote, these guys are in a pickle. They may not want Trump to come to the district, but there are still things Trump can do to help. Another GOP strategist working on midterm races was asked what would happen if Trump campaigned in their battleground states and said, quote, I suspect my candidates would come down with COVID. Speaker 8 (3:10) But one candidate who was seemingly COVID-free on Thursday, Ken Paxton, who campaigned with Trump in Texas just a few days after audio leaked of Paxton telling donors what he really thought about Trump's midterm convention in Dallas. Here's Speaker 2 (3:25) the audio from The New York Times. Speaker 4 (3:30) So, to be honest with you, when we did that convention, Trump, I remember, everybody was like, right now, yeah, not good. Speaker 8 (3:42) Not good. Yeah, Speaker 7 (3:43) not good. Speaker 2 (3:45) That was Paxton saying that, yeah, Trump, someone asked him if Trump's been a drag, and he said, yeah, Trump's been a drag, and that after everyone, after that convention in Dallas, everyone's numbers dropped. A little bit. I Speaker 6 (3:56) mean, Paxton, now this is not the point here, but it's just truly unbelievable that someone, like most incredibly corrupt politicians who succeed have incredible charisma. Trump as an example, right? And Paxton, like what is Paxton bringing to the table that allows people to just go along with his corruption? Speaker 8 (4:13) He's the personality Speaker 6 (4:14) of a snail. Speaker 8 (4:15) People who, you know, analyze Texas politics for a living and do Texas politics Speaker 2 (4:20) for a living have made the point that he has gotten as far as he has because of his corruption. And so, like, because he has been so corrupt and gotten so much, so many people who are really wealthy in Texas politics to spend so much money getting him elected, he really hasn't had, like, a super competitive race, especially in, like, in a primary, where he's had to rely on his charisma and talent. campaigning. All he's had to do is just be the guy who a bunch of, you know, wealthy special interests poured a bunch of money into making sure he got elected so that he could pay them back. Speaker 6 (5:00) Guys, we really Speaker 8 (5:01) can't lose to Speaker 2 (5:02) this Speaker 8 (5:02) guy. I know. We Speaker 2 (5:03) cannot Speaker 8 (5:03) lose to him. So here's Trump in Texas on Thursday proving that he's definitely not a drag. Speaker 4 (5:11) Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody. And I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest. Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. Good. I didn't even know if he's here. I don't care. Speaker 8 (5:27) You think that's what Paxton was looking for? Speaker 2 (5:30) He's like, well, he didn't call me ugly this time. Now, we don't think that the event's not over. So it's possible he Speaker 6 (5:38) closes with the ugly thing, the bad dressing thing. There's so much in this remarks. Like it's, yes. Is it helpful to Ken Paxton for Donald Trump to take his very poor approval rating, even in Texas and just be like, see Ken Paxton. He's always by my side. My stink is definitely on him. In case you're wondering there's my stink is on him. But also earlier in those remarks, he spent the, before he gets to the acknowledging Ken passing his existence, he spends like. 10 minutes at the top just saying how amazing the economy is and how we have numbers like no one's ever seen before. And the only reason people don't know it is because the fake news won't tell people. Speaker 2 (6:10) He also admitted yesterday, Wednesday, Trump said that he's done a, quote, very bad job of explaining his economic record. Did you catch that quote? Yeah. Speaker 5 (6:21) Rare Speaker 2 (6:21) sort of self-awareness from Donald Trump. Although I wouldn't say it's self-awareness because there's not much of an economic record to explain. Yes, there is that problem, yes. But I was surprised that he said that. So, Speaker 8 (6:34) you know, right as we started recording too, Fox News has another poll, 51-49. Speaker 2 (6:40) Tallarico. Tallarico over Paxton. So take that for what you will. We can get into the polls a little bit later. So this obviously depends on the specific race, but what do you make of the argument that was in that Politico story that in certain red states and districts, Trump showing up could be a net positive because... he will turn out his hardcore MAGA fans who otherwise wouldn't have voted. This is the bet for the midterms, at least in the White House, for putting Trump out there at all. Speaker 6 (7:10) This is not a strategy that a bunch of people have come up and put on a whiteboard based on data. It is based on the fact that Donald Trump will not shut up, will not stop saying unhelpful things. And so the best thing they can do in their estimation is to have him say those things. in rooms with lots of Republicans in swing states on this, you know, this like Hail Mary idea that it will turn out Republican voters. Now, there are two problems with this. The first is there isn't a lot of evidence in the statistical data that Trump will turn out Republicans the way he has before. There are two measures to this. One is what Trump's secret sauce has been in 2016, 2020, and particularly 2024 is he is turning out lesser engaged voters, people who don't really participate in politics, some first-time voters. All the data we've seen in the focus groups is quantitative and qualitative data says that those are the first people off the Trump train. Speaker 5 (8:01) They Speaker 6 (8:02) made a bet on Trump about costs. He did not deliver costs. They are out. The other thing is, is that he doesn't even have the same sway with his base that he used to. His, I think the best sort of statistical proxy to understand what that is, is strong approval among Republicans. His strong approval among Republicans is now under 50. It was close to 70 on election day. even as, obviously 2024, but in 2018 as well, where people forget Democratic turnout was through the roof, but Republican turnout was quite high there. And there's just not the same suggestion that Trump is going to have that effect. And then you put on the fact that those things don't happen in a silo. A president comes to a state, particularly, you know, if he comes to like a Kansas or an Iowa, that's going to get a ton of attention. It's going to be seen by all the independent voters. It's going to force the... Especially in Texas. Yes, especially in Texas. They're going to have to ask the question. All the candidates on ballot are going to have to ask the question like the Ashley Hinsons of the world. Are they going to come to the rally? And if they don't come to the rally, that doesn't seem to be good either because that makes them look political and calculated. If they go to the rally, it just seems bad. He's putting them all in a bad position and we should be grateful for it. And we are actually Speaker 7 (9:04) paying for this travel with our taxpayer money. So, win-win for us. I mean, even at that event Speaker 2 (9:09) that we just heard the clip from, he was like, is Paxton here somewhere? I believe, like, I think he's doing another event with Paxton or did another event with Paxton. Yeah. I think it's a fundraiser Speaker 6 (9:18) tonight. Right. Speaker 2 (9:19) So, Ken Paxton. unbelievably unpopular and corrupt, still had the wherewithal to think that he shouldn't be, like, standing next to Donald Trump Speaker 7 (9:32) at the event? Well, I had a lot of questions about this event. Is this an official event? Yeah, because it's at some kind of a truck. It's at the Peterbilt Speaker 6 (9:40) Truck Factory. Truck Factory, Speaker 7 (9:41) yeah. I Speaker 6 (9:42) know the Hatch Act doesn't really count, and it's like a fake law, at least with Donald Trump as president, but it really is. Specifically, the one thing you cannot do in an official event is actually tell people to vote for certain people. And he tells them like seven times to Speaker 2 (9:55) vote Speaker 6 (9:55) for Paxton and vote against Tallarico. Speaker 2 (9:58) Yeah, RIP the Hatch Act. Speaker 8 (10:01) So Trump's also been Speaker 2 (10:02) doing White House events, hyping economic wins for key candidates. So we talked on Tuesday about the future Iowa steel plant he announced with Ashley Hinson standing behind him in the Oval Office coming to an... Iowa town near you in 2030. He also announced a pledge this week from South Korea to invest in a natural gas pipeline in Alaska with Dan Sullivan standing next to him. Though it turns out that project is not only not finalized, but... But apparently South Korea afterwards said no investment decision has actually been made. The project still has to pass commercial and legal reviews. And the Korean industry minister told Reuters he complained that the White House announcement went beyond what had been agreed. What a surprise. Speaker 7 (10:47) What are the, what, John? Come on. Who are you going to believe, the Koreans or Trump? Speaker 2 (10:53) So like my instinct is that none of this shit moves the needle. But Tommy made the point on Tuesday's pod that, you know, the Iowa steel plant was the kind of thing that got a ton of local press in Iowa. I don't know. What do Speaker 6 (11:05) you Speaker 2 (11:05) think? Speaker 6 (11:07) I think that there's a way in which Trump could do these things that would be helpful. And he's doing the opposite of that, which is he's not, when you go to these, you watch these events, he's not saying like, you know, we didn't know what we were going to do. And Ashley Hinson would not stop calling me. She was like, you must deliver for Iowa. You must deliver for Iowa. We need steel plants. All my advisors are saying, we can't do this. Ashley Hinson, she was up my ass every day doing it. And he doesn't do that. Or she did the same thing with Dan Sullivan. He takes credit for the whole thing and then makes the candidate. stand there while he says fucking insane things like the greatest economy of all time is what he said with Ashley Henson standing behind him. No. So yes, it may be in Speaker 1 (11:45) the Speaker 6 (11:45) local newspapers. Tommy is correct about that, that, you know, like new steel plant coming. Like we all remember, you guys talked about this on Tuesday, the Foxconn plant, like what a big deal that was in Wisconsin press. Obviously that local press stuff matters a lot less than it did before, but it matters more to a state like Iowa. But what he's delivering there is not. I don't think it is helpful to Ashley Hinson or Dan Sullivan in any way, shape, or form. Speaker 2 (12:05) Also, how does it feel to read the headline about the new steel plant that's coming in 2030 while you're at the gas station filling up your car with gas that's never been more expensive as long as you can remember? So there is that problem, too. So polls seem good, Speaker 8 (12:24) maybe too good. This wasn't in our outline, but I thought I would bring it up anyway because you wrote a message box this week. I did. It really captured the vibe of all my group chats, not just the ones that you're Speaker 6 (12:37) in. Speaker 8 (12:37) Well, the ones Speaker 6 (12:37) because I'm in a lot of them. I was going to say, not just Speaker 8 (12:39) the ones that you're in, which is most of them. And it's called, Are the Polls Too Good to Be True? Like, here's Speaker 2 (12:45) where I am. I could see a scenario where the polls are broadly correct. Democrats win national house vote by eight, nine, maybe even more than nine, win the house. But then, like, narrowly lose the Senate because of a pretty small polling error. Like, it doesn't have to be a Speaker 8 (13:02) huge one. It's not even an error, right? It's just Speaker 6 (13:05) all these polls in the key Senate races, other than North Carolina and Georgia, are within the margin of error. Speaker 2 (13:11) So it is. The thing that's got everyone, you know, talking on Twitter is Harry Enten pointed out on CNN this week that in 18, 20, and 24 polls. specifically in the states of Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, the same states where there's always polling error, all underestimated Republicans by more than five points. So that like, you know, if we're within the margin and it's Abdul and Sherrod and Josh Turek, by the way, the same Fox had that Texas poll right as we started recording that has Tallarico up 51-49, also has Josh Turek up 51-49 in Iowa. But yeah, that like those states. you know, that would cost us the Senate. Speaker 6 (13:51) Yeah. I mean, that's all on the table. It isn't always true that every polling error is bad for Democrats, good for Republicans. Right. In fact, in 2025, there was a, the polls, particularly in New Jersey, dramatically overstated the Republican vote share. And so it could be. And then you have had, there are other examples of other years where the polls overstated. I think it was 2012 was a year where the polls overstated the Republicans. And so, like, there are a couple things I'd say about this. And I also, I would mention, because this is very important, I also, while I want everyone to subscribe to the message box, I also discussed this on Polar Coaster, which you can get along with ad-free episodes of some of your favorite podcasts and the amazing newsletters like OpenTabs at cricket.com slash friends. I Speaker 8 (14:38) mean, it's a great offer, and you get to be supporting pro-democracy independent media, one of the Speaker 7 (14:44) last best independent media outlets left in America. Especially now that CNN's under the thumb of the Ellisons. It's us, right? That's Speaker 6 (14:52) what we got. All right, so a couple points I would make here. One, polling errors are always possible. That is very true. Now, there are... There is evidence outside of polls which suggests a very good Democratic year. I'll give you a couple of those. One, Democrats have outvoted Republicans in primaries, which shows high turnout on our part. Special elections have been very favorable to Democrats. Now, you probably listened to us all 2023 and 2024 saying special elections are not predictive, and they are not necessarily predictive, but they are much more predictive in. Speaker 6 (15:28) midterm elections than presidential election years. Because as these concentric circles of less engaged voters go out, they become less predictive. But there's less of that in the midterms. And in 2018, special election results were actually quite predictive. There's a point Amy Walter has made before. And then you just look at all what's happening in the world, high gas prices, inflation, housing costs, all of those things. Low consumer confidence, mortgage rates being high. All of those things have historically correlated with very bad years for the incumbent party. So are the polls right or wrong? We don't really know. We don't know they're necessarily wrong. As you and I have discussed before, some of the states that we need are the ones where the polling errors are the greatest. But even if let's take the Latino vote, right? Like that's the point that has been made before about how. The polls have in the past overrepresented the Democratic share of the Latino vote, which is a big thing. They're giving people an impression that Democrats are going to win some places they don't win. That's why we thought Florida was close many times and ended up not being. But here's the thing. It's not just polls that tell us that Latinos have shifted to Democrats. There are real actual voting results in 2025. Huge swings, 20, 30 % swings to Democrats in heavily Latino precincts in New Jersey. In that special election that was won in Texas, huge swing among heavy Latino precincts. In the primary, I think this is like such a fascinating thing. In the primary, Texas primary. Now it's a primary, but James Tallarico got more votes in those heavily Latino counties on the Rio Grande Valley than Kamala Harris did in the general election. That's crazy. Yeah, and so there is evidence. That's not a percentage. That's votes, raw votes. Dude, that's actual raw votes. And so that's, so all of that is to say, I don't know if the polls are right or wrong. We should not assume that a polling error is necessarily bad for Democrats, but there is lots of evidence. And then today, for the first time in like many, many years, Democrats out-registered Republicans in Florida. It's a very notable thing. So there is evidence for Democratic momentum, Democratic enthusiasm, and swing voters swinging to Democrats. Is that going to be enough to take the Senate? We don't know the answer to that. Speaker 2 (17:39) Yeah. And I would just tell everyone in the last month to like, I feel like in the last, you know, maybe not this week, but like the week before earlier this week to you get in, you're getting some polls where it's like, you know, D plus 13, 14, 15. Like there, there is a scenario, right? Where Democrats do have like, there is a blue wave. And Democrats do do quite well and take the House and win the national, like I said, win the national popular vote by like eight, nine points. And it's just really, really close in a lot of Senate states where, you know, those are red states that Trump won by double digits. And it's like, you just need to get over that hump if you're the Democratic candidate. And like, hopefully we get there in all of them if the wave is big enough. But that's where the election is fought. Speaker 6 (18:22) It's just. It is credible to believe that the Democratic national popular vote in 2026 with $4.20 gas a gallon, with $7 diesel, that the Democratic share of the national popular vote could be a couple points higher than it was in 2018 when Trump was in the mid-40s, when the economy was much better, when majorities of voters approved of Trump's handling of the economy. Like, why couldn't it be a couple points better, at least, than it was then? Speaker 2 (18:50) Yeah, I Speaker 6 (18:51) agree. Speaker 5 (18:58) Today's show is brought to you by Into the Mix, a Ben and Jerry's podcast about joy and justice. You'd think challenging the publishing industry would take the combined efforts of writers, publishers, and activists. Instead, one 10-year-old helped spark the conversation. Marlee Diaz was 10 when she noticed something about the book she was being assigned in school. Too many kids weren't getting to see themselves at the center of the stories they read. 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