The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell on How Democrats Can Defeat MAGA for Good

On with Kara Swisher

In a live conversation at Sixth & I in Washington, D.C., Kara Swisher discusses Sarah Longwell's new book, 'How to Eat an Elephant,' which o

Key takeaways

• Voters often lack awareness of high-profile political events due to limited media consumption and algorithmic silos, especially on the right.
• Issues that break through to voters are those with direct personal consequences, such as gas prices or immigration impacts, not abstract policy debates.

Main topics

• Voter perception vs. political elite discourse
• Impact of media ecosystems and algorithmic silos on voter understanding

Notable quotes

"It was a real moment for me to understand that the things that we obsess about in Washington don't even break through to voters."

Conclusion

Longwell argues that Democrats can defeat MAGA politics by listening to

Transcript preview

Speaker 4 (0:00) It's like we're Olivia Rodrigo or something. Oh my goodness, there hasn't been this much lesbian energy on the stage since Rachel Maddow dined alone. Speaker 1 (0:24) Hi, everyone. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. We're less than two months away from the midterm elections, and Democrats are feeling a kind of optimism they haven't felt in a while for good reason. Voters have clearly soured on President Trump as evidenced by his abysmal approval ratings. Democrats have had some big wins in recent elections, and the party in power historically struggles in the midterms. Still, the Democratic Party isn't exactly winning any popularity contests with voters right now either. If the party wants to build the kind of coalition that can consistently win elections and defeat MAGA politics for good, it will have to win back some of the voters who've abandoned Democrats over the last decade. My guest today has a blueprint to do just that. Sarah Longwell is the founder and publisher of The Bulwark and a former Republican strategist. She has a new book out called How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter at a Time. It draws on the hundreds of focus groups Sarah has done with voters since Trump first won the White House. And it offers advice to Democrats on how they can permanently defeat his authoritarian style of politics. I think it's important to listen to Republican strategists. Now, Sarah's been a real critic of President Trump, so she's not exactly a Republican anymore, but she's really well-situated to help our country out of our slight. into authoritarian politics because she listens to voters. All right, let's get to my conversation with Sarah. We recorded it in front of a live audience last week at Sixth and I in downtown Washington, D.C. Our expert question comes from California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton. Don't go anywhere. 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That's where Odoo comes in, an all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together, from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all in one powerful platform. No messy integrations, no bouncing between tabs, and best of all, no spreadsheets. Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system. Try it today for free at odoo.com slash Cara. That's O-D-O-O dot com slash Cara. Speaker 8 (3:21) Megan Rapinoe here. This week on Why Are You Like This, I'm talking with Vice President Kamala Harris. We talk about her thoughts on public service, how D.C. has shaped her, and we find out if she's planning to run for president in 2028. Check out the latest episode of Why Are You Like This wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. Speaker 7 (3:45) Sarah, thank you for coming on on. Thanks for having me. It's great to be here. Speaker 4 (3:53) We're going to cover a lot in the conversation, Trump's unpopularity, the divide on the left between moderates and progressives, essentially punching left, and fears of the upcoming midterms. But we're going to start with your book. So you spent a decade listening and talking to voters to better understand what's happening in American politics right now. You've probably heard thousands of people at this point. What's the biggest thing? in general, that Washington gets wrong about the kinds of voters you're hearing from? And what is the overall message you're getting now? Because it changes, you know, goes in and out. Speaker 2 (4:28) Yeah, so one of the stories I tell in the book is, do you remember when Donald Trump stood on the stage with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, and he sided against America's intelligence community? So I was really early in my focus grouping endeavors because, you know, we were trying to primary Donald Trump. And I really wanted to know what Republican voters thought about him. And I was like, OK, this is great. All of these Republicans are going to be furious that Donald Trump is siding with. Vladimir Putin against America's intelligence community. And I walked into the room ready to hear it, ready to hear how mad they were. They were going to abandon Trump. And I said, so what do you guys think about the fact that Trump did this? And everybody's like, I have no idea what you're talking about. And... It was a real moment for me to understand that the things Speaker 3 (5:19) that we obsess about in Washington, because you got to understand back in Washington, Paul Ryan was like Speaker 2 (5:25) throwing the biggest fit you'd ever heard of. Donald Trump was getting yelled at so much by Republicans. Remember, he tried to lie and say he didn't say the thing that he said, that everybody just misunderstood him. So he's walking. So unusual for him. I know it's not like him at all. But this still happens all the time. It's like there will be. the beginning of a shutdown. And 100 reporters will say, Sarah, what are you hearing in your focus groups about the shutdown? And I'll say, nothing. They have no idea that it's happening. And so, so many of the things that just consume us in Washington don't Speaker 7 (5:52) even break through to voters. Is it because of Speaker 4 (5:54) lack of information or poor information sources? Or they don't have time for following every single moment? Yeah, it's a Speaker 2 (6:03) bit of everything, right? But I think a lot of it, and this is... goes to the lesson of what I learned was how much people look, they are consumed with their own lives, right? And I ask people all the time, you know, where do you get your media? It's a standard question in a focus group. And they'll say, whenever I see the headlines, when I'm scrolling. And if you think like, okay, that's how the vast majority of Americans' media diet is, it doesn't surprise you that they're not sort of breaking down everything that happens that we obsess about. And also, you know, we talk about low information voters in political science. Aren't they just normal right like I always think like these are people who are not sick like us Who are not deciding to make ourselves crazy all the time by consuming this and scrolling on Twitter, right? They've got kids to feed they've got jobs to go to and so a lot of people get really mad that voters aren't better informed But I have a hard time blaming them for trying to live their lives and also you throw on top of that many of them are Algorithmically siloed which is something I think we've all come to understand now, but especially in the right-wing media ecosystem, it used to be that you would go and you would get your news, right, local news, maybe some national news, and then you'd go to the Daily Wire or something else to get a conservative perspective. Now they live in that ecosystem, right? They may never hear. a different perspective. And that sorting is Speaker 4 (7:24) affecting all of us. Yeah, it's an interesting thing because I might tell the story like my mom, when the stock market was melting down, called me up and said, there's a real issue with trans-fensors. And I was like, fensors? Trans people who fence? Yeah. And she goes, yes, it's a big problem in this country. And I said, really, it isn't. There probably isn't even one. I was surprised there was one. And it was because she was being fed on Fox News or she didn't know about certain things at all. This is an Speaker 7 (7:52) enormously common response that I get in focus groups Speaker 2 (7:55) of Trump voters, actually, where they're like, they're mad about the war in Iran because they know gas prices are high. They know prices are high in general. So they're upset. maybe about tariffs, but some of the, they'll be like, but you know what? He's got trans people out of sports. And so it's, it's okay. Like, you know, it's like war, gas prices, but as long as trans people Speaker 7 (8:14) are out of sports, it's, we're all all right. Right. Speaker 4 (8:17) So talk, what does break through and is, has it changed? Are people, are they paying attention, these voters? Because every, I mean, obviously Democrats pay attention to it. Independents seem to be paying attention to the things he's doing. What is breaking through with each group? Speaker 2 (8:32) So this is true, I think, just in general about politics. The things that break through are the things that have negative personal consequences for people. Why do people know about the war in Iran? Because gas prices are high. They don't feel the bombs dropping. They don't feel the idea that we're over there. Now, they understand that Trump is going back on his word, but mostly they're experiencing it through high gas prices. And I think... You know, the tariffs, again, it's not that they understand a lot about tariff policy, but they understand that things are more expensive and that Donald Trump's central promise was that he was going to lower prices. That hasn't happened. And he owns tariffs and he owns the war because he's done them unilaterally. And so that is the thing that has broken through that voters are because they're feeling it themselves and they understand it as a direct product of Trump's actions. Speaker 4 (9:21) What else, what other topics have surprised you? I think a lot of people, and I wasn't one of them, were surprised by the reaction to data centers, for example. A year ago, I was telling the tech companies, you're in big trouble here. And again, it was because it was in people's lives. And this reaction has been massive, probably too much on some level. I mean, I'm not down Howard Lutnick Highway, that moron, but... There's no water used in data centers. He's such a moron. He's like, anyway, sorry. So Speaker 2 (9:50) I also, last year we were doing focus groups on all the primaries, right? And so there were these off-year elections, Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey, Abigail Spanberger here in Virginia. Oh yeah, Abigail Spanberger's great. She listens to the focus group podcast. But I did hear, I was hearing all through those races, voters were saying the thing that they were most frustrated about was the data centers. I had not been tracking it until it started coming up in all the groups. I'll tell you the one that's coming up now all the time is the flock cameras. Yes. Like this has become a big issue in Texas. It's a big issue. I did an interview about it yesterday, just yesterday. Yeah, it is. And look, the data center one is really interesting because I think it hits across a bunch of vectors for voters. Not only does it hit them with the sort of like these really rich tech people are going to make all of this money. Two, they're doing it in our neighborhood that is raising my energy prices, which is the thing that most people talk about is feeling like their energy prices are going up. And then the third thing is they think it's going to come take their jobs, right? They're like, someone's going to get rich. I'm going to lose my job and I'm going to pay more for energy. And that is why there's this enormous backlash. And also the tech community, this is your area, not mine, but it feels like if they were going to go into people's Speaker 3 (11:05) communities and do this, they had to talk to them first, right? It feels like it's something being... Speaker 7 (11:10) done to people. Yeah, and what a surprise to me that they didn't. Speaker 3 (11:14) They Speaker 7 (11:17) can't even talk to their... These aren't the most, like, socially Speaker 4 (11:19) adept people, is that what you're saying? No, at this point, they're just assholes, and they're rich, so... You know, Speaker 2 (11:26) I'm Speaker 4 (11:26) sorry, yes. Speaker 2 (11:28) I will say, I did promise my eight-year-old James there that I would not swear tonight, but it doesn't apply to you. Sorry, James. Speaker 4 (11:36) So, so sorry, and I'll try my best. Speaker 4 (11:41) It's okay. There's not normally eight-year-olds in your audience, I'm sure. So what is resonating? Because Trump is very tied to the tech moguls. He's very tied to AI. Every day he says you're stupid if you don't or China's going to beat us. Every day they have a different. Today was J.D. Vance as if we don't win, China will beat us in AI. Speaker 7 (12:02) And Speaker 4 (12:03) again, another person who's moronic about these topics, but they seem to be doubling down on telling people they're stupid. Yeah, Speaker 7 (12:12) I Speaker 3 (12:12) don't think Speaker 7 (12:12) that works with voters generally. But Speaker 2 (12:15) I also don't know that voters pick it up as much. Donald Trump, you know, Twitter was really a better medium for him. The fact that he has Ruth Social and he's kind of sequestered there has done him a lot of good because people don't always, you know, catch all of that stuff now. Like they don't hear that he's calling them stupid. But they did hear, you know, last year when he would say things like, forget about Epstein. I love the inflation. Like those things do. And I got to say, the thing that I hear about right now all the time is voters genuinely can't believe we're in this war in Iran. Like they say all the time, I think Trump thought it would be like Venezuela and it would be like in and out and it'd be done. And that's not happening. And they are furious. Like there is a reason he is living in the low 30s right now. And it's because once you're down the low 30s, you are at his. core base that is basically like, these are the people who, I was doing a focus group in Florida, and one of the guys was like, you know, I am frustrated with Trump because he is not doing deportations hard enough. That's a different kind of voter. Most of them are just, most of them are upset. And it really is, listen, it's not that the reflecting pool or the east wing, that doesn't have a personal con. consequences for voters, but it is a contrast for voters about what Trump is paying attention to. Voters will let him do all the weird stuff he wants as long as the economy is working, like his voters. But the second that he is focused on the East Wing instead of affordability, that contrast breaks through to voters, including his voters. And, you know, there's always a... a spectrum of Trump voters, right? There are the ones who just think, I love Donald Trump no matter what, no matter how poor I get. Like, I could, like, be naked in the street, have no food, no water. I just have a red MAGA hat on, and I'm running around going, I still love this guy because he is making the libs mad, and he's triggering them, and that's great. That is not the entire Trump coalition. There's also a bunch of people who are either just like Republicans who are like, I'll never vote for Democrats. But a lot of people were these low information voters who were like, I don't like the wars. I want to see the Epstein files and I want my costs to go down. Those people are infuriated with Trump. Do the silly Speaker 4 (14:29) things like like America and everything else break through or not? They do break through. But that's Speaker 2 (14:35) the stuff that actually I'm in the camp where that Trump does that because he knows that. It sort of just distracts people. It gets them talking about something other than the war. He does these things whenever he's losing. There's also, we just went through a massive news cycle about, you know, trans women in the WNBA. Why? They got to change the subject from the other. And Trump's good at changing the subject. And that's what Lake America is all about. So they know about it, but it doesn't, other than people will talk about it like, oh, that's a stupid thing, but Speaker 4 (15:05) they don't really care. Right. Although you notice the numbers of MapQuest have gone up massively. It's really kind of interesting. MapQuest? Yes. Yeah. They had 1.5 million downloads. Someone's paying attention. And it's not just a lot of angry Democrats. You know, it's an interesting thing. Please use MapQuest, everybody. Anyway, in the dedication of your book, your friend and podcast co-host Jonathan Velast has a warning to readers. He writes... Yeah, JBL! Speaker 4 (15:34) Do not read this book with a mind to argue with voters. That way lies madness. We all know voters often have sometimes incoherent, sometimes contradictory views. But what you see