Is RAF Fairford Safe?

Newscast

This episode examines the sudden US withdrawal of B-1 Lancer bombers from RAF Fairford amid heightened security concerns following arrests near the base, then shifts to

Key takeaways

• US abruptly pulled B-1 Lancer bombers from RAF Fairford to South Dakota after intelligence suggested an elevated threat from Iran targeting UK airbases.
• Five men were arrested near the base eight days prior, initially charged with explosive offences before being bailed under terrorism laws while investigations continue.

Main topics

• US military withdrawal from RAF Fairford
• Iran threat intelligence and UK base security

Notable quotes

It was done in such a rush that by several reports, there were refueling planes needed to get them across the Atlantic that were still on the ground being fueled up as the Lancer bomber crews were taken to the air.

Conclusion

Listeners gain a clear understanding of how localized security scares and

Transcript preview

Speaker 5 (0:00) This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. Speaker 1 (0:05) The Signal Awards just announced finalists for the best podcasts of 2026. Now it's your turn. From September 29th to October 15th, you decide your favorite shows, hosts, and more in the Listener's Choice Awards. Visit vote.signalaward.com to see finalists in categories like Most Innovative Audio Experience. Make your picks at vote.signalaward.com and tell a friend. Don't wait. Speaker 4 (0:36) I was shocked to learn over the weekend that Paddy has still not even made one stir fry as part of his efforts to make a good stir fry in Andy Burnham's first 100 days as Prime Minister. But then I was very enthused to get this message from Barbara. She says, inspired by the variety of projects people are hoping to achieve in 100 days, a fortnight ago, I felt I should accept the challenge. And here is Barbara's challenge. Many months ago, I knitted the various pieces required for a cardigan. I love knitting, but not the sewing up nor picking up the stitches to complete the borders. So far, I've sewn up part of the cardigan and picked up the stitches to knit up the neck and right hand borders. I hope to finish it within 100 days, but momentum is slipping. I'm pleased to hear you're still persevering with your running and wish you all and the team every success with your various challenges. Thank you for a great programme. Well, thank you for a great message, Barbara. and I would like you to send me a picture of the completed cardigan. How's that for motivation? And Barbara, I will send you a picture of me crossing the finishing line in 165 kilometres time. Anyway, the challenge for today is to make a very informative but also entertaining episode of Newscast. Speaker 6 (2:02) Do Speaker 4 (2:03) we play music now or what do we do? Hello, it's Adam in the Newscast studio, and we are recording this episode of Newscast on Monday afternoon at about 3pm. But on Sunday evening at about 20 past 10, I got the BBC News push alert saying that the US was withdrawing its long-range B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in Gloucester back to the US. Now, at first glance, you might think, OK, planes move around all the time, that's just logistics, especially if you're bombing Iran a lot less with them, which is what the US is doing at the moment. But then on the other hand, exactly a week ago, we were talking about the five guys who were arrested and then bailed because of those vans that were spotted outside RAF Fairford in the middle of the night. A thing that the Prime Minister, a few days later, said was potentially linked to Iran. So there's quite a lot to unpick here. And the person who's going to do it for us is here in the studio. It's the BBC security correspondent, Frank Gardner. Hi, Frank. Hello, Adam. And Frank, how did the news about the US bombers relocating back to the US from the UK? How did it land with you? Speaker 3 (3:05) So pretty late at night, so had to file something fairly quickly. I mean, I think that tells you a lot that it was unexpected and pretty much unannounced. I mean, you know, took a few confirmatory calls to the Pentagon who didn't want to give any details. But once all the B-1 Lancer bombers had left Fairford and were safely back, either on their way over the Atlantic or back at their home base of Ellsworth Air Base in South Dakota. Then they confirmed that, yes, they had pulled them all out. Now, it's not unusual for them to withdraw everything. They've done this before. But this was done in such a rush that by several reports, there were refueling planes needed to get them across the Atlantic that were still on the ground being fueled up as the Lancer bomber crews were taken to the air. Speaker 4 (3:53) And Speaker 3 (3:54) that tells you everything. It was clearly a new bit of threat intelligence. Now, I've tried. to pin down white hall officials to get out of them exactly what is behind this. You know, is this Iran? Is this some kind of bit of political jiggery-pokery from the Trump administration, you know, to justify, I don't know, actions in the Iran war or whatever? They said, look, we can't go into specifics, but what we would say is that amongst the threats we're dealing with, there is an ongoing high tempo of threat. from Iran to the UK and pretty high up on their target list are going to be air bases used by the Americans. Speaker 4 (4:39) And so we knew that was the American view that there was a potential threat from Iran in the UK. But does this suggest that threat has increased or it's there the same as it has been? Speaker 3 (4:50) Well, interestingly, the UK national terror threat level hasn't changed. It's currently at severe, meaning that a terrorist attack is considered highly likely. The one below that is substantial, meaning that it's likely. The one above that is critical, meaning that it's highly likely in the near future. And it hasn't moved to critical. It's pretty rare for it to go to critical. That means that the police and MI5 have got specific hard intelligence that are plot. is about to be activated imminently that they haven't managed to intercept. So, you know, we'd be wrong to ignore the elephant in the room, which is the arrest of those five men with the three white vans Speaker 4 (5:33) and Speaker 3 (5:34) a bit of petrol inside. Just over a Speaker 4 (5:36) week ago. Speaker 3 (5:37) Just over a week ago, eight days ago. And it was initially they were arrested under the... charged with the explosive offences. Then they didn't find any. Then they were arrested under the Terrorism Act. And then they were all released on bail, which means that they are still being investigated under PACE, the Police and Criminal Evidence Act. So they are still subject to bail conditions. And there's a sixth person, a dual Iranian-British national, who has been arrested in connection with this. Iran has denied... any responsibility. But everybody I speak to in Whitehall says they see the hand of Iran somewhere in all of this. But they've got to find the evidence. Speaker 4 (6:24) The first sort of theory you posited there, though, was, is this actually just a cover or a response to what's happening with the conflict with Iran? Why would this potentially be that? Speaker 3 (6:34) Well, look, there is a fundamental difference between the US and the UK on this. The US is at war. with Iran were not. We just happen, as their big buddy, to be providing them the use of bases under strict conditions, in theory, that any airstrikes that take off from RAF Fairford or any British base to hit targets in Iran must be purely for defensive purposes. What does that mean? It means hitting the missile silos or missile launch sites and drone launch sites in Iran that are being used to target shipping and friendly Gulf nations. Iran, though, made it very clear back in July. They said, and this was specifically aimed at the UK, saying any country that allows its bases to be used for strikes against us, we will consider them to be a legitimate target. So, you know, two and two, you put it together and it absolutely makes four. But that doesn't, you know, that still doesn't prove that this was them. You know, it proves that they are the most likely. If there is any state involved in this, and the Americans keep saying, absolutely, it is, and we think there's a nation state behind this, but we haven't seen the proof. And you've got to let the counterterrorism police do their work here, because they are leading the investigation. And one of the reasons why the men have been released on bail is that it gives them a lot more time to go through all the mobile phones, the laptops, the digital trail. that these men have left behind them. Eyewitness statements, CCTVs, road cameras, all the rest. So they can build up a complete picture of what those men were doing in the run-up to that moment. And this call that one of them made in advance, was this somebody getting cold feet? Speaker 4 (8:26) Well, yes, because it later emerged that one of the five who were arrested had themselves called the police. Exactly. So, Speaker 3 (8:31) you know, they've got to consider all options here. Was it somebody... trying to blow the whole thing? Was it, you know, in other words, to give himself up, as it were? Was it somebody pre-positioning some form of defense so that if and when it came to trial, they were able to, you know, but I don't want to go into that because it's, okay, they haven't been charged yet, but still, it's an ongoing investigation. And we don't know what was behind that. So, you know, all I'm saying is they're considering all options. One important factor, I think, in all of this, Adam, is money. The US has lost a shedload of money already in the Iran war. Tens of Speaker 4 (9:15) billions. Speaker 3 (9:15) Tens of billions. It is a very expensive war, possibly. I think, I mean, for the number of days, it must be the most expensive war it's ever fought, I would imagine, certainly in terms of treasure rather than blood. Speaker 3 (9:31) And cast your mind back to March the 27th, the height of the Iran-US-Iran war, when, you know, airstrikes were going in all over the place. Iran carried out a shockingly precise strike on Prince Sultan Air Base just outside Riyadh in Saudi, which was being used by the US. And instead it is. And one of the munitions... cut in half a U.S. E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft worth half a billion dollars. That's Speaker 4 (10:06) a Speaker 3 (10:06) lot of real estate. And these B-1 Lancer bombers that they have suddenly withdrawn in the dead of night, each of those are worth about $330 million a piece, plus obviously the crews, but they probably wouldn't have been on board. Speaker 3 (10:22) Even though there is nothing to so