NVIDIA VS. MICRON, META MUSE: GAME CHANGER?, MIDTERM TRADES, & IS A MARKET CRASH COMING?

Market Mondays

The episode opens with community shoutouts and historical market statistics before diving into a deep analysis of long-term tech investments, specifically comparing

Key takeaways

• NVIDIA delivered a 13,000% return over the past decade, while Micron and AMD posted 6,000% and 9,057% returns respectively, highlighting the dominance of semiconductor growth.
• Historical data shows October averages a 3% gain in midterm election years, finishing positive 75% of the time since 1950, suggesting favorable Q4 conditions.

Main topics

• Long-term semiconductor stock analysis
• Options trading psychology and risk management

Notable quotes

"If you're not only swinging the call, but then you're doing zero day options on it... can you respectfully read a chart?"

Conclusion

The episode emphasizes disciplined, long-term investing in AI infrastructure and tech ecosystems over

Transcript preview

Speaker 3 (0:00) For me entrepreneurship has always been the way Speaker 3 (0:03) Investing is important because it's the only way you are going to be rich and wealthy for your family. We can close the wealth gap by working together. Speaker 2 (0:15) Market Monday is the biggest investment show ever. Speaker 3 (0:18) My life has literally changed since Washington, EYM. Speaker 4 (0:22) When you can make people money and you can add value, they're gonna be forever indebted to you. Speaker 4 (0:33) Disclaimer, do your own research. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It's very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with or independently research and verify any information that you find on our show and wish to rely upon whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise. Let's build our knowledge, our community, and our brokerage accounts. Love is love. Speaker 3 (1:03) You. Speaker 4 (1:03) Yeah, yeah. Love is love. Speaker 3 (1:05) Mic check one, two, three, four, five. How y'all doing? Speaker 4 (1:08) We good, man. How you feeling, man? Speaker 3 (1:10) Blessed Holly favorite. Can't complain. Still enjoying Miami. I wish I was in LA, but Miami not a bad backup, you know? Speaker 4 (1:16) Not bad, man. Temperature has hit triple digits for four days in a row. So that's cool. Shout out to everybody that pulled up to our meetup. this weekend out in L.A. Shout out to all the earners. Shout out to everybody that pulled up on us in the streets of L.A., man. We got a lot of love out here, man. So it's definitely a welcoming feeling. Shout out to all the guys. Shout out to y'all for being here. It is officially October. That was my Spanish for the day. We feeling good. We feeling good, man. Shadi, how you feeling? I'm Speaker 2 (1:48) good, man. Once again, yeah, shout out to L.A. We had a lot Speaker 3 (1:52) of Speaker 2 (1:52) love. EYL University. Man, don't miss the regional meetup group. I'll tell you that much. And shout out to our LA family, man. Marathon, team, Black Sam, the whole crew. Shout out to Stick Watts, the Watts crew, who's in the studio with Punch. TDE. Shout out to TDE. Some Speaker 4 (2:11) great spirited conversations. Speaker 3 (2:13) I can only imagine. Speaker 4 (2:18) Yeah, I think, you know what? Music is such a commonality. It's a universal language. But to find humor in the stories and the music is something like, it's very unique, man. So shout out to Punch and his whole team, man. That was a good night. Speaker 2 (2:32) Yeah, well, you know, LA always been good to us, so shout out to Cali. Man, we ain't gonna waste too much time. But Yaki Awakened, well, before that, Blackout. Man, Blackout last week, I think it's had 90,000 views. Yeah, Speaker 4 (2:45) yeah, yeah. Speaker 2 (2:46) Blackout's been going fire. Salute ish. It was in the streets. We went to ComplexCon. Everybody that was stopping me was just talking about Blackout. 90 % of the conversations that I get in the street are Blackout related. So I'm glad you guys enjoyed the show. Man, the viewership has been growing. So we're back. Nine o'clock on Wednesday. We got a lot to talk about, per usual. So tune in to Blackout at 9 o'clock. And then 12 o'clock, we got the brother Yaqui Awaken. 12 o'clock on Thursday. Earn Your Leisure, very important episode. We got the brother Yaqui Awaken. We go into a deep dive on a lot of different stuff, health-related. He really broke down an extremely detailed plan as far as, you know, how to actually get your health back on track, how to keep your health on track. So health is wealth. So, man, check that out. Check that out on Thursday at 12 o'clock. Ian, any announcements? Speaker 3 (3:45) Yeah, I believe in L.A. we swapping coasts. Oh, yeah? Yeah, so this week I'll be at Black L.A. Week. Thank you to everybody I met at Legacy Con at Black Professionals Network. Bilal and I had an amazing conversation. Sat down with Hitmaker after. Shout out to the guy. Some fires in that studio. More music to come. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. and let's have an amazing show yeah Speaker 4 (4:10) i've seen they just dropped the record that too rare record with uh amy i like that joint i've seen that in the end maker yeah speaking Speaker 3 (4:16) of miami young miami has another one you Speaker 4 (4:20) like that joint Speaker 3 (4:21) and it's a new one coming Speaker 4 (4:23) okay okay i just need to drop the video i was gonna say that uh that that yaki awake and definitely definitely check out there's been a few interviews obviously super intelligent long over we saw what he did on 19 keys uh high level conversations a few years ago but every now and then the episode that you take the information from and implement uh so for on a health standpoint the last time this happened was tabitha brown's episode maybe a few years ago i stopped eating chicken from that episode and he pulls back some some some some envelopes here that you know i had to make some changes so make sure y'all tap in too i want to hear how y'all received the episode yeah and Speaker 2 (4:59) also our la family we can't forget mike rashid we can't forget 19 keys tommy tommy duncan Man, we've been tapping in with the guys. So, you know, salute to all of the L.A. crew every time we come out here. It's always love. Pull up on us. We pull up on them and, you know, salute to everybody. Shout out Speaker 3 (5:18) Simba. Simba. That's the brother. That's the brother. Speaker 4 (5:22) Tapped in. So, Speaker 2 (5:23) yeah, we tapped in across the board. Okay. Investment fact of the week. Speaker 3 (5:29) Continuing our conversation with my dear brother Ish. Speaker 3 (5:34) There are 15 stocks that have returned 1,000 % or more over the last 10 years. I just want to give you a couple. NVIDIA, 13,000 % return because I didn't know we was going to have this conversation. Rashad threw it off the cuff. Speaker 4 (5:43) All the time I have. Speaker 3 (5:46) NVIDIA, my baby cooking, AMD, 9,057 % return. Troy, your baby Micron, 6,000%. And that's just the equity. We're not talking the flip or the option. Dell is up 4,500%. Lamb Research is up 4,000%. Shopify is up 3,400%. Broadcom is up 2,500. And ASML is up 1,700%. The real answer is to do both, but we have to be very honest. The returns in this market have been some of the greatest that we've ever seen. Hold for a 10-year period, and you too can get 1,000 % to 3,000 % returning stock if you hold for the long term. Speaker 4 (6:25) And that's over the past. You can't do Speaker 3 (6:26) that in a flip, my boy-ish. I love you. I love you, my guy. You my brother. It's just the math. 6,000, 13,000%. Speaker 4 (6:34) It's the way the math is set up. And even in that list, you said over the last 10 years, the last year, just think about this. Sandus has been up 1,300 % over the past 12 months. I mean, just no disrespect to anybody that does real estate. It's just tougher to do that in that space. In a 12-minute span, for sure. Speaker 3 (6:52) Yeah. Just Speaker 4 (6:53) not hurdle. Yeah. Oh, so that was yours. People like when I give the facts, right? So they know I go deep into research. So last week, we talked about how the market performs historically in the fourth quarter after having a positive September and August. So this week, we're going to start with this, man. October historically has been the S &P's strongest month in the U.S. midterm election year. We're in that current year, right? Election coming up at the top of November. Since 1950, it has averaged a 3 % gain and finished positive. 75 % of the time. So again, when you're talking about history and you're talking about statistics and you're following a trend, 75 % of the time, right? Been positive 3 % gain. Now we're talking about the S and P that we're not talking about just a step. The S and P 500. If that has a 3 % turn, now we're talking about maybe we're at 8,000 before we enter November. So that, that is a great sign, great sign. And we need to make sure that we pay attention to monitor that. Speaker 2 (7:54) And I will say this because we had a post that went pretty viral, a million views right now as far as the dinner post with Trump. Oh, yeah. And in that post said who was at the dinner. But it is important to notice that one one glaring company was not at the dinner. Speaker 4 (8:15) What was on it today? Speaker 2 (8:16) Apple. Speaker 4 (8:18) So they did bring that up. So if you read that tea leaf, then it would seem like that may have been something that was suspicious. But Tim Cook was at the dinner the night before. Obviously, he's no longer the acting CEO of the company, but they made sure that there was representation. So they had the dinner the night before. Then they had the meeting in the office the next day. Obviously, new CEO. So Tim Cook didn't go to that one, but they were represented the night before. I definitely looked into it. Speaker 3 (8:45) And that seat has to be earned. It's a new CEO. And now that he's out of that chair, even Tim and the administration has had a tumultuous relationship. So I think even Sam, Sam wasn't there, but they still had representation there. Same Speaker 4 (9:00) thing. Speaker 3 (9:00) No, Speaker 2 (9:01) but that's Speaker 3 (9:01) a Speaker 2 (9:01) little different. Yeah, for sure. Open AI had a seat at that Speaker 3 (9:06) table. Speaker 2 (9:06) They were there, yes. And Speaker 4 (9:07) Sam was also there at the dinner the night before. But you mean collectively after, yeah, they were. Apple had no representation at Speaker 2 (9:13) that table. Speaker 4 (9:14) That is true. That is true. Sam Altman was at the dinner as well the same night as Tim Cook. So their faces were there represented in the summit, but they weren't at the actual meeting. So, yeah, that's true. There was no representation at that table from Apple. John needs to read the book, Rashad. Speaker 3 (9:30) He lives. I mean, Speaker 4 (9:31) it's Speaker 3 (9:32) day Speaker 4 (9:32) three of the job, right? Speaker 3 (9:34) But in succession planning, he knew three years prior that he was going to be up. That's the part of the onboarding part that isn't talked about enough. Regardless of your political leaning, you're going to have to play ball if you want that spot. The same way that Tim Cook had to play ball with the firms on the buyback side and had to start to do the roadshow that Steve didn't want to do, John's going to have to play ball with both administrations going forward. So I think that's a great point. Speaker 4 (10:00) Yeah, do you think there's something there in terms of how he plans on leading the company going forward? Maybe he doesn't see the usage of some of these models in the same way that everybody else is, and that may have led to the absence. Or is he just saying, you know what, I got to put my vision out there first. He might not have got Speaker 2 (10:17) invited. Speaker 4 (10:18) Or maybe he's just getting invited. That's the Speaker 3 (10:20) other point. Speaker 2 (10:21) That's Speaker 3 (10:22) a heavy-hitting power table. Even though he's a CEO now, he hasn't. Speaker 2 (10:28) But it does say a lot that they wasn't representing, no matter how he sliced it. There was no way that NVIDIA representation wasn't going to be there. Just to look like the president. There was no way that Elon Musk or somebody from his company or some people are non-negotiable. But despite Speaker 3 (10:46) that, Apple hit an all-time high two weeks ago. So they're still on a great run. I don't think it's going to tremendously affect the stock. But going forward, they are going to have to mend some of those relationships and put a concerted effort to make sure that they're in the in crowd at that table for sure. Speaker 2 (11:03) Trading tip of the week. Speaker 3 (11:07) I want you guys to start to submit your trades for us on the show so I can review them. A lot of you are trading in silos, and I know you guys have had it in LA, and it happens to me in Miami. Hey, what do you think about this trade? And you're showing me, but it's like, if I can kind of guide you prior to, it will help a lot more. And I know a lot of traders have a fear of sharing their screen and sharing their trades, but sometimes you have to share the trade. ahead of time so we can kind of correct you. We have a question now where a guy is in a company that I'm not the biggest of. So not. You're drawing down on a bad company and it's a bad call. So, A, if I can help you, I'm in a good mood. I want to take three of you and review your trades for next week. So send them to me at enajoinrapanda.com and I'll break the trades down for you next week. And secondly, stop trading so much. Like the... predictions market. Has brought gambling into trading which is already volatile enough Do a bro told me Saturday? He's taking 24 to 30 trades a day. I'm like I don't even need to see what your account look like I know you're negative Stop trading So much thinking that the edge is in your favor The house is always going to win whether you're doing sports betting whether you're doing crypto Whether you're doing derivatives and futures and options less is more And sometimes you're going to burn through that money so fast that you're going to be terrorized to come back. Trade less. One at the open and one at the close is good enough. Speaker 4 (12:40) Yeah. I think, you know, you spend so much time doing research and you spend so much time trying to figure out the right position to enter that you actually know these things. Like, I don't have to open the portfolio to know the option call that I made. In fact, we were having this conversation, kind of like what you just said, but with Blackout. I think 100 % of the conversations that I have now. are people telling me about their options and what do i think to the point we had this conversation in l.a uh this weekend and they were talking to me about um their their uh d-ram call and i'm like the 33 they're like oh we got in 36 i'm like okay fine they're like but what about the 52 i'm like yeah i'm in Speaker 3 (13:15) a Speaker 4 (13:15) 50. and i'm like am i they're like how do you know i'm like i'm i remember you're in it being the process of just saying all right here's where we're Speaker 3 (13:22) going Speaker 4 (13:22) to get it at i said yeah we might be down 11 but we're out to 20 28 so we definitely have time there but understanding like This isn't like a 24 trade a day type thing. At that point, you're going to get confused at where your positions are, why you entered those positions, and it becomes more high risk. And so be very strategic. Like we say, stay low, keep firing for a reason, right? That means you're striking with precision, but you're also taking the time to figure out, okay, is this the time? Is this going to be a moment? And what is going to be our exit and entry strategy? So once you do all that, of course, you're going to remember the ones that you did, even if they go negative. You have your thresholds, but you understand what you did going into the position. And that's important. If you overtrade, you're not going to, I mean, it's tough to manage. I'll be honest with you. It's tough to manage. It's tough to manage. And Speaker 3 (14:08) you get so much of an emotional bias. Like when we talk about that, when he was giving me a case study for why he thinks that call and that company is going to go up. And I'm like, well, if you're not only are swinging the call, but then you're doing zero day options on it. And then he's like, well, I've been shorting a NASDAQ for two months. I'm like, can you, respectfully, can you read a chart? Like, what benefit is it to short? He's like, well, we were overdue for a pullback. I'm like, here goes the Michael Burry thing. And I love Michael, but I think his thinking has bled into the trade market too much where everyone's looking for a short and everything's pushing to highs. Speaker 4 (14:49) Yeah. People are getting squeezed out of those positions. NASDAQ hit an all-time high today. Speaker 3 (14:53) Getting Speaker 4 (14:53) cooked. S &P is not far from it. Dow's not far from it. If you're just looking at trajectory, I mean, you would know. But that's something that people don't, you know, they see it like, hey, it's hitting all time high. It has to pull back at some point. And yeah, eventually it will. But look at the trend line before you make that decision. Speaker 3 (15:11) Look at how much money is just pouring in from 401ks. Like in order to short NASDAQ and the Dow and ES, Nikkei, Kospi. You're telling me that the trillions of dollars that are being pumped in the 401ks and money market funds and like you're trading the direction wrong. Go with the predominant direction. Look at the month chart first. Speaker 4 (15:33) Tell them the company. Why don't you do that? Speaker 4 (15:40) Stay tuned. I didn't like it. I didn't like it either. I didn't like it either. Yeah. Speaker 2 (15:45) But I will say this, though. It is good to have multiple different, because I spoke to Troy about this as well, especially with the options. Speaker 2 (15:54) You got to have multiple things working for you at the same time. If you put all your eggs in one basket and that goes south, which any option trade can go south, then you're screwed. You get a better Speaker 3 (16:06) basket. Speaker 2 (16:07) That's Speaker 3 (16:08) what Speaker 2 (16:08) I'm saying. You got to have multiple. But you got to have multiple options working for you. Speaker 4 (16:12) What are you saying? Like multiple positions? Speaker 2 (16:14) Multiple calls. Speaker 4 (16:15) Yeah. Can I just add Speaker 2 (16:16) a caveat? Speaker 4 (16:17) Because I agree with you. In the same company or not in the same company? Speaker 2 (16:20) Not in the same company. Okay. Yeah. Now, everybody's budget doesn't afford them to do that. I understand that. But I'm just saying, you give yourself a greater chance of winning the more positions. That doesn't mean you have to have a million positions. But if you just put it, all right, if you have $50,000 and you're saying, okay, if I can get a green jacket and I'm going to put $50,000 on one option call. No stop loss. With the anticipation that that $50,000 is going to turn into $500,000. That, to me, is ill-advised. Speaker 3 (17:01) Especially if you don't have incredible acumen. We can even talk about this one, the five-serve call. He's like, hey, I got in in the stock $169,000. Speaker 3 (17:12) You think my January calls are cooked? I'm like, the company's cooked. Like, to your point, if he would have did Google, Microsoft, Micron, and spread the risk out, he wouldn't have had as much. Because we all have met people when they approach you and ask about the portfolio, you can feel the fear that's coming out of their energy, right? You have to diversify. Same with 2Tech, 2Index, and same with futures. That's why I say trade ES. nasdaq down in the bond market also Speaker 2 (17:42) what happens is when you have a company that does a trade that goes well you said i should have put more money in so then the next time around you up your limit it's like being at the table in vegas so now you was playing at the 5 000 on the 10 000 table now you playing at the 20 000 table and so you up your limit on the amount of money that you start putting in And you got to be careful with that, too, because now your strategy has changed and you're going in with the anticipation that I learned my lesson last time because I made 500 percent, but I only put five thousand dollars in this time. I will put fifteen thousand dollars in and Speaker 3 (18:25) then when you put fifteen Speaker 2 (18:26) thousand dollars in, you down 79 percent in two weeks. So. You got to be disciplined with that, too, because once you start to say, OK, now I'm going to put larger sums of money in because of that, it doesn't always work out in your favor. Speaker 4 (18:43) Yeah, that's why you got to be super strategic. So based on that, it's like it starts with the one. Right. So let's just take Micron. When we did this in 2024, I started with one contract. Most people didn't even believe in that contract. And it was like, OK, we pulled back. We started at 110. Speaker 2 (18:56) The Speaker 4 (18:56) first call was at 110. Dropped down to 83. We were down 60%. I said, we're not moving. In fact, as it creeps back up, we're Speaker 2 (19:03) going Speaker 4 (19:03) to let it pass the threshold. If that 110 call now goes up 50%, I think we're going to have a nice run. So then you add to that. So when I'm talking about when I stack them, and sometimes you'll see these posts in my stories, it'll be like, how did he get all these calls? Well, it started hitting thresholds, and I'm watching the trend. So if it clears 200, now we're looking for a 215. Oh. And it just keeps going up to the point now where we were at $1,100. In June, we were at $1,200. But people are looking at it and they say, wait, he's in a $230 call? Well, we got the $230 call when it was sitting at $170. You feel what I mean? So that's why I wanted to make it a distinguish between are you doing it in the same company or are you doing it in a multiple? So first get the foundation. I always stress to people, foundation, foundation, foundation, whether that's in ETFs or whether that's in indexes. And then have some individual. equities inside that foundation, then you can maybe get to derivatives, right? But you don't want to skip steps. If you got 50,000, if that's your only 50,000, that's it. That, I mean, obviously that's really ill-advised, but if you start to see an uptrend, like we saw in the memory space, like we saw in the compute space, like we've now seen in energy, like we're seeing in a lot of the infrastructure, then there's an opportunity to say, okay, well, we've made it 500%. Can we now get another call to add to that? So we're just adding to the ladder. And really, that's how we get our stacks. Speaker 3 (20:23) And it's a really great lesson that you brought up. You kind of skimmed over it, but to add to your winners and not your losers, like because you're really essentially buying momentum, like same with NVIDIA Speaker 2 (20:33) around Speaker 3 (20:34) the 212 mark when everyone's saying, oh, I don't know if NVIDIA is going to give any more higher returns now sitting at the high 240. add to your winners and stop trying to add to your losers to bring down your negative cost basis. If a lot more traders did that, you would be, especially in the futures market, you would be better off. Speaker 4 (20:55) Yeah, you know, I had a guy try to convert me that Saturday afternoon He said yo, I'm in red pan Detroit. I love the way you research man. You could really do futures I say yo, that's not my discipline, bro. I say in the best in the game let him do that Yeah, it's Speaker 3 (21:12) the same people ask my time. Why don't you do the options? I'm like once you master something you can give up a lot of your edge and your primary thing going to another asset even though like the charts are the same and the risk is the same. Sometimes the best thing to do is just stay dominant at the thing you're best at. Kudos to you, Hugo, who can do both, but very few people do both well. Speaker 4 (21:33) Yeah, stay tuned. Who knows? Speaker 2 (21:35) Yeah. What do you feel about adding water technology companies to a portfolio? Speaker 3 (21:41) I know, I'm stupid. be short and forth. I'm going to be honest. Speaker 3 (21:48) Uh... Speaker 3 (21:50) No. I brought up CGW. I brought up the stock in 2020. I know a lot of people have talked about it and remixed it since then. I appreciate the question, but