Disney CEO Battle As Chapek Attacks Iger In New Book, Best Actor Race - The John Campea Show

John Campea Show

The episode explores the onset of the Oscar contender season, specifically analyzing Gold Derby's latest Best Actor predictions. The hosts t

Key takeaways

• John Malkovich is currently positioned as the frontrunner for Best Actor in 'Wild Horse 9'.
• Tom Cruise's 'Digger' is facing mixed reviews, which may impact his Academy Award momentum.

Main topics

• Oscar Best Actor Predictions
• Weekend Box Office Forecasts

Notable quotes

I think he is low-key, absolutely one of the best actors we have in the business that doesn't get talked about a lot.

Conclusion

A comprehensive look at the shifting landscape of award season and box

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:02) Well, greetings and salutations, everybody. Welcome to the best damn movie-related show on the planet Earth, The John Campion Show, coming from right here in our quaint little studio. I'm, of course, your host, John Campion. I'm joined today by writer, director, producer, Mr. Robert Meyer Burnett. Robert, how are you doing today, sir? Speaker 4 (0:20) I'm doing well. I continue to be all things to all people, John. Speaker 1 (0:25) And, of course, joining us is our technical producer, Jonathan Vojko. Jonathan, how are you? Good. I continue to Speaker 3 (0:31) be no things to no people. Speaker 1 (0:32) That's always the best, being no things to no people. And of course, most importantly, guys, you guys are here. Thank you so much for being here and making our little show part of your day. And here's how today's show is going to go. We're going to start off by talking about a number of predetermined topics we have lined up for you guys. Then in the second part of the show is when we're going to take your live comments and questions. If you guys have a thought, theory, opinion, question, or an issue you'd like us to address, as long as I deem it appropriate to be addressed on the show, go ahead and use the Super Chat feature if you're watching live and send it on in. The Super Chats are currently open, but they will be turned off at some point during the show because, as always, you guys fill up the Super Chats pretty fast, which we're very grateful for. But we can't take... all of them so we're going to turn them off at some point but for now they are still open and we'll get around to those in the second part of the show all right guys with that down let's get things started here today shall we and we're gonna get things kicked off with this Well, you know, it's almost October, which is crazy to think about. We are like literally a week away from October, which means we are now entering into the belly of Oscar contender season. This is really when most or a lot of the big Oscar contending movies, performances, all that stuff starts coming out. And so, appropriately, we have a lot of the awards websites. right now a lot of the awards trackers the awards pundits are starting hot and heavy to get their main predictions and their rankings and the jockeying positions for all the different possible contenders and one of the more interesting races that is shaping up is one for best actor And it's gotten just a little bit more interesting. So one of the main sites and outlets that kind of covers award stuff is Gold Derby. And they put up their list of the top contenders and who they see as possibly getting these nominations. And I thought we would jump over and take a look at them. So let's get things going with this. Remember, there are going to be five nominees for best actor. They have in the number 12 position, Andrew Garfield for the film Artificial. They're saying he gets a 2.6 % chance of getting nominated. Speaker 1 (2:56) Sebastian Stan for Fjord. I cannot wait to see this movie. I think the trailer for this looks so intense and so interesting. I'm dying to see it. And it was one of those things where it's like, wait, that's Sebastian Stan, which was more of a testimony to the makeup department than it is to him. But still, this thing looks absolutely incredible. I can't wait to see that. Then at the number 10 spot, they've got Anthony Ippolito, who's of course playing Sylvester Stallone in I Play Rocky. He's getting a lot of buzz right now for this. They're saying he's got an 11.98 % chance of getting nominated. In the number nine spot is Jafar Jackson playing his uncle, Michael Jackson in Michael. They're saying he has a 12.69 % chance of getting nominated. John Turturro, who I only saw this trailer like two weeks ago for the first time. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Interesting title. Speaker 3 (3:50) Did you Speaker 1 (3:51) see the trailer for this? Yes, I did. Speaker 3 (3:53) This Speaker 1 (3:54) looks real good. It looks real good. Speaker 4 (3:57) And Speaker 1 (3:58) you know what? I think John Turturro, because he does some silly stuff too, I think he is low-key, absolutely one of the best actors we have in the business that doesn't get talked about a lot in that discussion. I think he's absolutely fabulous. So, by the way, I love him in Severance too. But, I mean... them talking about this one was a surprise to me but a pleasant surprise they're talking about john turturro's their number eight option right now having a 13.39 chance of getting a nomination in the number seven position pedro pascal for another movie i cannot wait to see behemoth of course they they had the trailer for that came out a little while ago it looks fascinating the whole idea about taking place around music in the movie industry. And this guy who plays a musician looks great. Pedro's one of the great ones we've got going right now. So they're saying right now he's got a 25 % chance of getting a nomination. So significantly big jump from Jafar Jackson and John Turturro up to Pedro Pascal from 13 % to a 25%. Now, right now, the bubble boy, that's a poker term for those of you who know what it means. But the bubble boy, the guy sitting just on the outside of their predictions for a best actor nomination. Yes. That's a deep cut. Speaker 3 (5:17) Deep cut, man. Deep Speaker 1 (5:18) cut, Speaker 3 (5:18) Davey. Voico pulling out the deep cuts. Speaker 1 (5:22) So our bubble boy in this example is Ryan Gosling just sitting on the outside for, of course, Project Hail Mary with 31.1 % chance. Okay, so that takes us now into the five they've got positioned right now to get those five best actor nominations. The five they're saying are Robert Pattinson for Primetime, which is, of course, in theaters today. You can run out and go see. prime time today they're giving him a 49.8 chance of getting nominated tom cruise for digger they're saying he has in the number four spot as 70.5 chance of getting nominated andrew scott by the way let me say this i've heard almost nothing about uh elsnor until about a week ago Speaker 1 (6:17) And everybody I have talked to who has seen this movie is just raving about the performance of Andrew Scott. It played at, I think, Telluride. It's now playing at the Toronto International Film Festival. And the people I know who have seen it cannot stop talking about it. And they're all talking about Andrew Scott's performance. It's based on a true story, by the way, about one of the actors who was in Chariots of Fire, who then went on to do stage. got AIDS and like kind of became a personal triumph story. But everybody, and by the way, Olivia Coleman, multi-time Academy Award winner, Olivia Coleman, she's a supporting actress in this. And there's some chatter about her getting a nomination too. But everybody is raving about Andrew Scott. You may not have heard of this one yet, but believe me, you will by the time we get around to a heavy award season. So they're saying he has a 74.08 % chance of getting nominated. At number two. Matt Damon for the Odyssey with an 83.9 % chance, which is basically they're saying he's a lock to get nominated. And their number one. John Malkovich for Wild Horse 9, which again, we talked a little while ago about some of the initial reactions from the film has been great. A lot of people saying Malkovich is kind of a shoo-in to get a Best Actor nomination. Right now, he's not just a lock and position to get a nomination. Right now, to some of these outlets, he's the heads-on favorite to kind of win Best Actor. Now, in the midst of all of this, Kind of an interesting thing has happened. And that's that Tom Cruise's Digger has now been viewed. And we talked about this on the show the other day, that the reviews are not kind. Well, let me change that. Speaker 1 (8:11) The reviews are very, very mixed. Very mixed. I have heard from a few people that absolutely loved it. But then again, we talked on the show the other day about some other people I know giving their reactions and they were very negative on it. And a lot of people have like... Speaker 1 (8:29) I mean, this movie is a really big swing and you got to respect that. But I remember my, my one friend, uh, Edward Douglas, uh, prolific reviewer been in the business for a very, very long time. He wrote, he, he specifically wrote, oh, this one's going to have a horrible cinema score. Like he just does not believe the audiences are going to like this. And I'm wondering, I'm wondering if now that diggers getting viewed. And it's getting such mixed reactions. And a lot of people are saying that Tom Cruise is very good in it, but I'm wondering if that is going to knock Tom Cruise out of the running. Speaker 1 (9:09) and make room for Ryan Gosling for Project Hail Mary, who I believe should get a nomination. But I say that having not seen all the performances yet, so take that with a grain of salt. But I wonder if that would then open the doorway for Ryan Gosling to get popped up there and put into the top five of the best actor race in the upcoming Oscars. As always, guys. The best lead actor race always seems to be insane. Like, it just seems like year in, year out, it's just an insane, absolutely stacked category. And this year is absolutely no different. Because again, we're talking about Pedro Pascal's behemoth performance, John Turturro's performance. Some people thought Jafar Jackson, when Michael first came out, was a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination. Now it seems like an outside shot. Andrew Garfield in artificial Sebastian. These are all people who are on the outside. They're not on the outside looking in. And, and so this does look like a particularly stacked category this year. Rob, you look at this list. Um, does it kind of fit with where you thought it would be? Are there some surprises on here to you? Are there anybody on that second list from the number six to number 12 spot that you think could sneak in? Is there somebody we haven't even mentioned yet that you think could get sneaked in there? What do you think about this? Speaker 4 (10:35) Well, first of all, I think it's an incredible, an incredible list. Um, we have so many great performances and, you know, Malkovich, I've seen that wild horse nine. trailer a million times, but I never get tired of it. Speaker 1 (10:49) I Speaker 4 (10:49) never get tired of it. And, you know, Andrew Scott, I've always liked him as an actor. And so, I mean, look at this list. I mean, Malkovich, dude, I've loved John Malkovich since the 80s when he was in movies like The Killing Fields or even in Empire of the Sun, you know, Spielberg's movie. I mean, he's been delivering great, what is it, you know, Valmont. that that milo shforman directed but the other one with michelle pfeiffer and glenn close dangerous liaisons he was great in that i mean i just this list of actors is incredible dude i'm ashamed Speaker 1 (11:27) of you i'm ashamed of you how can you be mentioning great john malkovich films and not mention con air i i like what are we doing well it just got announced to come out on 4k john Speaker 4 (11:36) it's coming out on 4k as of as of today they just announced it Cyrus the Virus. Speaker 1 (11:42) That's right. I keep forgetting the name of this one, but this other one, not ironically, I mean, another one of his that I think it's overlooked because his performance is better than the movie, but when he plays the killer in that Clint Eastwood, where Clint Eastwood is the line of duty. Oh, in the line of fire. That's what it is. Speaker 2 (11:58) Oh, God, I Speaker 1 (11:59) love him in that one. Anyway, sorry, please continue. That's actually a really Speaker 4 (12:02) good movie. I like that movie a lot. It's a solid, solid studio movie. But I think this is an incredible, I mean, I think it's anybody's Oscar race right now. I mean, I couldn't even begin to tell you. I do think our boy Anthony, who's in I Play Rocky, he was so good as Al Pacino in The Offer. being playing the young Corleo, not Vito, Michael. And it's just so funny to me that he's then, I play Rocky, I saw an interview with him the other day and man, he just, I could see it. Speaker 1 (12:42) I can't wait to see that movie. Oh, I'm excited for it. But there is something I should point out here. Something I really, really should point out. Whether we're looking at the top five list here or whether we're looking at even the six to 12, no Timothy Chalamet. Speaker 1 (13:02) No Timothy Chalamet for what I think is my most anticipated movie of the year with Dune 3 with all the accolades he got last year and all the awards he won during award season. Didn't get the Oscar, but he won a lot of the other ones for best actor last year for a movie I didn't even like. I didn't even like Ping Pong the movie. And I loved everybody involved. I didn't like the movie though. He won a lot of awards for that year. And yet nobody, and I've, I've looked across several of the big awards pundits. Nobody is giving Timothy Chalamet a shot right now. Speaker 3 (13:42) Cause it's the same character over and over for the last three movies. So people are like, these people are doing something new. He's doing the same thing that he could have gotten nominated for the first and second movie for. And didn't, Speaker 1 (13:52) I don't know. Yeah. I mean, tell me you don't know acting, but without saying you don't know acting, uh, somebody just, uh, put up uh timothy is overrated you i i'm sorry you have no idea what you're talking about i i granted granted everything is all uh subjective of course art is subjective but i'm sorry if you think timothy chalamet is overrated you and i don't have much to talk about i mean it's just he's that good and it's just kind of surprise again and i'm not saying that in the in the context of timothy's just got any movie coming out this year and oh how could We're literally talking about one of the most hotly anticipated movies of the year, the co-star of Doomsday. And I just found it interesting, not that he's not in the number one spot, I just find it interesting that he's not even in the top 12 on this list. So that to me is very interesting. Speaker 3 (14:50) Not that he's going to get nominated, but he's not even like the 2 % chance. Yeah, like not Speaker 1 (14:54) even be given, because what's the last position there? Andrew Garfield at 2.6%. You're saying you don't even think Chalamet's got a 2.6 % chance? I find that kind of interesting. But at any rate, guys, question is for you. What do you think about this? I mean, we're... Getting closer now to the main body of Oscar season. So a lot of these predictors are going to start coming out. And it looks like, again, it's going to be an incredible race for Best Actor. Who do you see heading those top five spots? Do you think Tom Cruise can hold on to that spot? Do you think he'll fall out of it? Do you think Ryan Gosling will get up in there? Do you think John Malkovich can win that Academy Award? Whatever you guys think, jump down to the comments section below and let us know your thoughts. Speaker 1 (15:46) All right, guys, with that down, let's move on to this, shall we? Well, this is a very interesting weekend coming up at the box office for a couple of different reasons. Number one, we have an insane breakout smash hit with Resident Evil. We talked about all the records and the plateaus and the milestones that it hit last week with a $60 million opening. So we have that movie going into its second weekend. But above and beyond that, we've got four high-profile films all opening this weekend. We've got Primetime. We've got The Heart of the Beast. We got one of my favorite movies of the year, Forgotten Island. And we've got Avengers Endgame Encore, all opening this week against a Resident Evil going into its second week. And now look, I've said for a while here that while Forgotten Island, I think is the single best animated film of the year so far, haven't seen Wildwood yet. and I think it's one of my overall favorite films of the year. I've said for a long time, I don't expect a lot of people are going to go see it. I don't think Universal did a particularly great job marketing the film. And as a result, I don't think a ton of people are going to go see it. I certainly hope they do. I just don't think they will. So how would the others go? Well, our friends over at Joe Blow took a look at all of the various forecasting, all of the predictions about where the numbers were going to fall. All that kind of stuff. And this is the list that they came up with with how they thought the weekend was going to shake out this weekend as far as the box office goes. They looked at this. They believe Resident Evil will take the number one spot. And I think that's been the question. Is it going to be Resident Evil or is it going to be Avengers Endgame Encore? They are predicting that Resident Evil will only take a 50 % drop and still make $30 million this weekend. And that will top off. Avengers Endgame Encore, which they're predicting is going to come in at probably about $25 million. Now that leaves it up to the next three new films coming into theaters. Primetime, Heart of the Beast, and Forgotten Island. They're pegging Primetime at a $20 million opening. Heart of the Beast, the new Brad Pitt dog movie at $18 million. And Forgotten Island at a pretty paltry $12 million. Pretty paltry $12 million. Now some of the early forecasting for Forgotten Island was saying maybe $17 million and even that was low. That's low. And now they're saying maybe 12, which would be, I'm going to be honest with you guys. I would not be shocked at all. If forgotten Island only made 12, I'm not going to be surprised at all. I think it can make a little bit more than that, but I won't be surprised at all again, because I think universal just dropped the ball in the marketing of the film. And I've, I've said that for a long time now, and now we're going to see it come to fruition still, even with these numbers, here's something that's kind of interesting. Speaker 1 (18:56) Is that that would mean this weekend something very rare would happen. It's not unheard of, but it's rare. That this weekend we would have no less than five films making double digits on one weekend. Now, there's no Spider-Man making $175 million. There's no Avengers film making $300 million. None of that on here. But it is rare that you get a weekend where you have five films making double digits at the box office, which would be pretty encouraging for them. Anyway, I think, you know what? While I think Forgotten Island can make a little bit more. I think Joe Blow has got it pretty much nailed here. I really do. I agree that I don't think Resident Evil takes more than a 50 % drop. I mean, if it does, it's not going to be much more than a 50 % drop. So I think it's going to come in right around that $30 million number. Endgame Encore, again, this would be a huge number for a re-release, but... The John Gamby Show is brought to you by Maud. 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See their website for important safety information. And we thank Mod for sponsoring the podcast. You must remember Speaker 2 (21:17) this presents The Bisexuals. Libby Holman was a sexually fluid blues singer who became famous in the 1920s and then infamous when she was indicted for her husband's murder. Later, Libby began an affair with movie star Montgomery Clift, who had to keep his own bisexuality secret in Hollywood in the 1950s. Also featuring Elizabeth Taylor, Josephine Baker, drugs, orgies, and, of course, movies. Follow and listen to You Must Remember This wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 1 (21:45) You got a few extra minutes of footage. We are leading into doomsday. I can absolutely seeing it making 25 million, maybe even one or 2 million more than that. Prime time at 20 is right around where the forecasts were hard to the beasts right around where the forecasts were and forgotten Island. Again, I think it can make a little bit more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 12. Anyway, Rob, you see, you know, Joe blow basis on all the predictor markets. They saw all the, the initial box office forecast they had. I think they've pretty much got it here. What do you think about their list? Do you see anything here making more or less? How big do you think Encore can be this weekend? How do you see it? Speaker 4 (22:25) Well, Encore started out with, what, $3 million in its preview night, Thursday night? Yep. And that's pretty respectable for a re-release. But like you said, I think they pretty much have the list. Oh, Speaker 1 (22:36) it's Speaker 4 (22:36) awesome Speaker 1 (22:36) for a re-release. Speaker 4 (22:37) Yeah, I think they pretty much have it down. I mean, look. It really depends. Like Forgotten Island, I never want to count out an animated film because you've got the family audience. And if it has a big Saturday, we'll see how much, because it could very well have a big Saturday. We'll see how much it does. And Heart of the Beast has got a dog in it. I'm going to see it today. So, you know, if things have dogs, you've got Brad Pitt and a dog. And I think that there's an element of the female audience that is underrepresented that might be going to this movie. So, you know, and I'm going to see primetime, even though a friend of mine said it was another a 24 movie about distasteful people doing distasteful things. I was like, I never thought of it that way. But I think what I would like to see, like, I don't know who's going to make more money than the others, but it wouldn't surprise me if, if end game came out on top again. But I think what I love most is that these four films represent a wide variety of movies. You've got a re-release, then you have. a Hollywood major movie star movie that's an original coming to us from David Ayer. You have an indie film coming from A24 that's got a tour de force performance, I would imagine, from Robert Pattinson about something. So that's new. And then you have an original animated film. So this is an embarrassment of riches for film fans. So it's, you know, it's like the alien versus predator thing. Whoever wins, we lose. Well, in this case, whoever wins, we win because who, who, who wants, this is the kind of, of movie going weekend that movie fans want. You're getting that Craig or horror. Oh yeah. And then you've got resident evil, but I think it's a great, it's a great weekend. And I hope people go to the movies. Cause I would like to see not a single movie come out on top, but I would like to see this. to this weekend as opposed to the same weekend last year or the year before or even pre-pandemic. I'd like to see this be a huge weekend overall for all four of these films. Speaker 1 (24:41) Five of them combined all being in double digits. Sorry, Jonathan, go ahead. Speaker 4 (24:47) I was thinking about the new ones, but yeah, Resident Evil too. Speaker 3 (24:50) Sure, but to your point, it's looking at like a $105 million weekend, and we're talking about late September. Typically, September is like this dead month between the summer blockbusters and then the holiday season fourth quarter rush for the Oscars. All right. This Speaker 1 (25:09) is big. This is pretty good. Rob, I got to ask you this, though. You mentioned that you think it's possible that you wouldn't be surprised at all to see Encore take the number one spot this weekend. Speaker 4 (25:21) Yeah. Speaker 1 (25:21) Okay. Joe Blow's got Resident Evil making 30 and Avengers Endgame making 25. Speaker 1 (25:31) If Encore were to take the number one spot. Is that a result of Encore making significantly more than the 25? Or is that a result of Resident Evil making significantly less than the 30 they're predicting? What do you think happens to make Encore take that leap up? Speaker 4 (25:51) You know what? I think that it's the residual. I'll call it the Spider-Man effect. You know, people are going to go back. I watched Jeremy John's review of Encore. And he talked about the fact that, you know, it's been seven and a half years since Endgame came out. And he made the point where, wow, it just hit differently. And I felt it. I felt that excitement. It was great seeing it again. And I think people are in a Marvel mood. And I think, if anything, we underestimate the fact that we're building hype toward Avengers Doomsday. And Endgame is kind of a... a theatrical event and you know it's weird when you think that it's been seven and a half years there's probably a new generation of people that might have been eight or nine that didn't get to see it in the theater but now they're teenagers so they're like gonna go so that's what i think that there's there's the marvel effect the residual effect from spider-man and people are enjoying you know they went and saw spider-man multiple times they'll go back and see end game in the theater i think that's the only thing that could happen that would get it up top you know, above Resident Evil. But Resident Evil, I loved, as you did, John, I loved Resident Evil. It delivered. I watched a video. So Speaker 1 (27:04) good. Speaker 4 (27:04) Yeah, I watched this Asian couple. I don't know. I'd never seen their video before. And they went and saw, like, the guy didn't like horror movies and his girlfriend dragged him. And even he, it was a very funny video. He reluctantly came out and he said, it's Speaker 3 (27:20) good. Speaker 4 (27:20) It's good. And it was really, it was funny. But I think that that's another thing is that people who don't traditionally go to horror movies are really enjoying the experience of Resident Evil because it does that tightrope of horror, gore, and humor. You know, some people say it got too goofy at the end, but I didn't feel that way. I mean, you know, you ramp it Speaker 3 (27:42) up. It Speaker 1 (27:43) got to Speaker 3 (27:43) me a little Starship Trooper-y. for some reason. I don't know what happened there. Speaker 1 (27:47) But it didn't Speaker 3 (27:48) ruin my movie experience. Speaker 1 (27:49) I didn't like the end end. Speaker 3 (27:51) I didn't like how it ultimately ends, but I still thought Speaker 1 (27:54) the third act overall was very good. Anyway, guys, question is for you. What do you think about this? We've got one of the more interesting weekends actually at the box office this year with four significant films opening in wide release. You've got this great second film, getting or this a second week film and resident evil coming over is it going to be avengers end game back in the number one spot at the box office is resident evil going to be able to hold on that spot how do you think those other three films like prime time heart of the beast forgotten island are going to do whatever you guys think jump down to the comment section below and let us know your thoughts Speaker 1 (28:37) Well, you know, every once in a while, we like to take a little bit of time and play ourselves a little game called What's More Likely. The way What's More Likely works is really simple. A little bit earlier today on the community tab in the YouTube channel, we put out a post calling for submissions for you guys to send in some scenarios for Rob and I to say which of your scenarios is more likely. You guys sent a bunch in. Jonathan's got them all gathered up in front of him. So, Jonathan, what do we got up first? All right. Starting with you, Rob, this comes Speaker 3 (29:07) from Mark Rebels. What's more likely here? Edward Norton comes back in Secret Wars or Eric Bana? Speaker 4 (29:15) Well, I've got to go with Edward Norton because Edward Norton was in an official MCU movie, even though it was the universal MCU movie. So I'm going to go with Ed Norton. But I got to tell you. I could see Eric Bana coming back because if, if hulks are being used as enforcers, as the way Thor's were used as enforcers in the comic secret wars, and we have different hulks, I would love to see Eric Bana and Edward Norton in the movie, but I'm going to go. What's more likely it's going to be Edward Norton. Speaker 1 (29:46) You know, your logic is sound. I Speaker 4 (29:50) know. Speaker 1 (29:50) Because after all, listen, Edward Norton is his Hulk is the Hulk we have now. Remember, his Hulk is Mark Ruffalo's Hulk. Mark Ruffalo just took over the role. So there's a continuity there. But I believe that the answer is Eric Bana.