The World's Worst Predictions

Everything Everywhere Daily: History, Science, Geography & More

The episode examines a series of famous historical predictions that failed spectacularly across economics, technology, and culture. It highl

Key takeaways

• Economist Irving Fisher predicted a 'permanently high plateau' for stocks just days before the 1929 crash.
• A 1903 New York Times editorial suggested flying machines were millions of years away, yet the Wright brothers flew 69 days later.

Main topics

• Historical economic forecasting errors
• Underestimation of aviation technology

Notable quotes

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

Conclusion

History's worst predictions serve as a reminder that expertise often f

Transcript preview

Speaker 1 (0:00) Throughout history, experts, executives, scientists, and journalists have tried to predict what the future will look like. Some of these predictions were insightful, and others were so spectacularly wrong that they became famous in their own right. They dismissed revolutionary inventions, underestimated new technologies, and confidently predicted the exact opposite of what happened. Learn more about some of the world's worst predictions on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Speaker 1 (0:41) Do you ever climb into bed ready to sleep, only to have your mind start racing the moment your head hits the pillow? Thoughts bouncing around, replaying the day, or jumping ahead to tomorrow? That is exactly why Catherine Nicolai created Nothing Much Happens. Each episode is a gentle, cozy bedtime story where, well, nothing much happens. No drama, no tension, nothing you need to follow closely. Just soft narration, calming repetition, and soothing sensory details designed to help your mind slow down and your body relax. It's not about entertainment, it's about rest. And millions of listeners around the world use it every night to quiet their thoughts and finally fall asleep. If you've ever struggled to shut your brain off at night, this might be exactly what you've been missing. You can listen to Nothing Much Happens wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are every Monday and Thursday. Speaker 1 (1:30) I'm Alan. And I'm Sean. And together we host the Prancing Pony Podcast. Every week I explore Middle Earth with Sean or with other co-hosts lately with in-depth analysis and plenty of nerd humor. From The Hobbit to The Lord of the Rings and more, it's a great way for first-timers to experience J.R.R. Tolkien's captivating world. And for longtime fans, it's a deep dive into their favorite stories. So if you're ready to take the next step into the most beloved world in fantasy literature and become a part of a vibrant, active community of listeners, then look for The Prancing Pony Podcast. wherever you listen. Speaker 1 (2:04) Predicting the future is difficult. Some people have pulled off incredibly prescient guesses about what the future would hold. And others haven't just been wrong, they have been spectacularly wrong. They may have overestimated or underestimated technologies or trends, or completely missed what was obvious to everyone else. To be fair, predicting the future isn't easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But there's a difference between being wrong and being spectacularly wrong. And that is the focus of this episode. And we'll start with one of the worst predictions by someone who is otherwise quite talented, Irving Fisher. Irving Fisher was an American economist, statistician, and Yale professor born in 1867. He became one of the most influential economists of the early 20th century, especially for his work on interest rates, inflation, capital theory, and the relationship between money and prices. His ideas helped shape what later became modern monetary economics. Many economists, including Joseph Schumpeter, Milton Friedman, and James Tobin, considered him to be one of the greatest economists the United States has ever produced. However, his reputation was tainted by one enormously wrong statement. On October 15, 1929, just days before the stock market crashed, he said, quote, Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. He was speaking to the Purchasing Agents Association at its monthly dinner meeting. He also said at that meeting, quote, Largely through the influence of the investment trust movement, the public has been waking up to the superior attraction of stocks over bonds. And I believe the operation of investment trusts as a whole have acted to