Foiled plot: did Iran plan British base attack?

Economist Podcasts

The episode explores three major global developments: a suspected Iranian-backed terrorist plot near a British airbase, the surge in oil ind

Key takeaways

• Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford under suspicion of preparing a terrorist offence involving explosives.
• The incident is suspected to be an example of Iranian hybrid warfare targeting US-used UK infrastructure.

Main topics

• Iranian hybrid warfare
• RAF Fairford security incident

Notable quotes

The strong suspicion is that this may be an example of Iranian hybrid warfare.

Conclusion

The episode highlights how geopolitical instability and unconscious so

Transcript preview

Speaker 3 (0:03) The Economist. Speaker 5 (0:09) Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Bloor. And Speaker 3 (0:14) I'm Jason Palmer. Today Speaker 5 (0:19) on the show, the Iran conflict has boosted oil firms' profits. And why women's earnings go up when their male manager has a baby daughter. But Speaker 2 (0:34) first, five Speaker 5 (0:43) men remain in custody after explosives were found near RAF Fairford, a British airbase used by American forces about 25 miles from Oxford. The men were detained close to the base in the early hours of Sunday morning and arrested under the Explosives Act and on suspicion of preparing a terrorist offence. We don't know yet which group is behind the incident, but suspicion so far has focused on one possible perpetrator. Speaker 1 (1:12) We don't know all the details yet. The strong suspicion is that this may be an example of Iranian hybrid warfare. Speaker 5 (1:23) Matthew Simons is a contributing editor at The Economist. Speaker 1 (1:27) We've seen quite a lot of that in the UK, but we don't know for certain yet. If it is Iranian, then this would mark a significant escalation. Speaker 5 (1:39) Matthew, we'll come on to that in a minute. Tell me, first of all, what we know about what happened. Speaker 1 (1:46) Well, it's an extraordinary story, really. There were three people in a car coming back from a party in the small hours of Sunday morning, and they saw some suspicious activity near Fairford Air Base. And what they saw was, first of all, three white... vans about 300 yards away from the airbase perimeter in a sort of fan shape. And then a little bit later, they saw men wearing balaclavas and black outfits gathering around. They rang a number that they had been given as an emergency number for the airbase. Nobody replied. They then rang 999. which is the emergency UK number for the police. And then things happened pretty rapidly with helicopters arriving and police. And as far as we know, the people were rounded up pretty quickly and were taken away. And that's all we know for certain. But the suspicion is because the police evacuated the immediate area. that there were explosives which were intended to detonate soon and that was a reason for the evacuation. But again, nothing has been confirmed yet. And Speaker 5 (3:16) just give us a bit of context. Why were the US using a British base? Speaker 1 (3:21) Well, this had been a UK sovereign base always, but the Americans have used this for a very long time. It's part of... our agreements under NATO and with the US bilaterally. This base is, I think, almost entirely used by the US. And it flies B-17 transport aircraft. It flies B-1 bombers, even B-52s. I mean, these are big, noisy aircraft, so it has a significant presence in the neighborhood. And it is a crucial base. for America when operating particularly in either Europe or the Middle East. And indeed, it has been a very important base for the US in terms of its war with Iran. Speaker 5 (4:05) Now, Matthew, you said that this fits into a pattern of escalating hybrid warfare attacks by Iran. Explain that. For Speaker 1 (4:14) a long time, there has been Iranian hybrid activity in the UK. It's mostly been aimed towards either the Jewish community or against Iranian dissidents in the UK. There was also an attack on an Iranian London-based TV station about two years ago. Even before this year's war, MI5, the UK's secret intelligence service, had been flagging Iranian activity as a serious threat. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said in October that service had tracked more than 20... potentially lethal Iranian back plots in the UK over a 12-month period. But when the Iran war kicked off earlier this year, the frequency and the level of attacks began to increase. And the Iranians made it clear when the previous Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, agreed that Fairford could be used to attack defensive targets. Not offensive. So in other words, it couldn't be used to attack Iranian infrastructure, but it could be used to attack missile launchers, for example. The Iranians made it clear at that time that they would regard any such military activity originating from the UK as a legitimate target. Speaker 5 (5:34) We don't know what happened at Fairford. We don't know who was arrested. What do we know about the people who carried out the other attacks you've just spoken about? Speaker 1 (5:44) Well... We know that the modus operandi is recruitment of low-level operatives, so it's not carried