Can Kemi win the battle for the right?

Coffee House Shots

The episode examines Kemi Badenoch's aggressive new welfare policies targeting under-25s ahead of the Conservative Party conference, exploring her

Key takeaways

• Kemi Badenoch proposes cutting benefits for under-25s unless they complete six months of continuous work, framing it as a necessary shift away from dependency culture.
• Both the Conservatives and Reform UK are competing on fiscal prudence, with Reform announcing £51 billion in welfare cuts versus the Tories' £23 billion plan.
• Tim Shipman notes Badenoch's deliberate distancing from
• within her parliamentary party, excluding figures like Grant Shapps to enforce unity.
• Liam Halligan highlights the CPS's historical role as a policy outrider for Thatcherite ideas and its current strategy to engage both Conservative and Reform UK circles.
• Business attendance at political conferences is used as a barometer for momentum, with observers noting a contrast between Labour's energetic conference vibe and the Tories' traditional spreadsheet-focused atmosphere.

Main topics

• Conservative Party conference strategy
• under-25 welfare reform
• fiscal prudence vs spending promises

Notable quotes

"I'm the woman who's going to say no."

Conclusion

The episode provides a strategic breakdown of how Kemi Badenoch is levera

Transcript preview

Speaker 6 (0:00) U.S. voters abroad, have you got your ballot yet? All states are now sending ballots to overseas voters. So if you want to vote this year, you should request your ballot right away. Go to votefromabroad.org and click Request My Ballot. Ask to receive it by email. Questions? Ask our support team directly. Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. Speaker 3 (0:31) Hello, welcome to Coffeehouse Shots. I'm James Heal and I'm joined today by Tim Shipman, the political editor of The Spectator, Alan Halligan, the Telegraph columnist and new director of the Centre for Policy Studies. Now, Tim, for this week's issue, you've done the cover story interviewing Kemi Badenoch. There's been some policy in there suggesting under-25s could have their benefits cut if they don't go back to work. Tell us about the interview you did with her on Monday. Speaker 4 (0:51) She's in a very bullish frame of mind. And, you know, Kemi, most people would accept, including her, could probably start. a sort of firestorm with an empty telephone box. But she really is leaning into this kind of, you know, I'm a difficult customer kind of, I'm going to say it as it is and I don't care what the consequences are approach. So the policy is basically that... You know, you won't be able to go straight out of school onto benefits until you're 25, unless you have six months of continuous work. When you start to claim universal credit, you'll have to go off to some kind of work camp, essentially, and learn how to do interviews and how to behave at work and all that sort of thing. And you'll do six months of that. And then you'll be paid a sort of get-to-work allowance, which is not the same as universal credit. And once you come off that, if you don't get a job after six months, you'll go down to a sort of subsistence-level payment. the problem of your parents rather than the taxpayer. So it's pretty tough. And I sort of said, lots of people will think this is a good way of sort of encouraging people not to fall into a life on benefits. But quite a few people will say, you know, is this a return of the nasty party? And she basically said, I don't care. We tried to convince people we weren't the nasty party before and it didn't work. And people are energising the Tory party because we're saying what we believe and saying what we think. And she contrasted herself with Andy Burnham, you know, the man who... you know, constantly likes to say yes and basically said, I'm the woman who's going to say no. Spectator readers need to know that the person saying no is the leader of the Conservative Party. And, you know, we've done her up as the ultimate nanny, Mary Poppins on the front, basically bashing young people into a job centre with her umbrella on the front. So it's an interesting approach. She's not... You know, there's a lot of kind of ad hominem in the piece. She's pretty rude about Starmer, says he's completely uninteresting, never said an interesting thing in his life. She's obviously got more time for Burnham because he knows what he thinks. But as a result of that, she thinks there's much more clear blue water between the two main parties now. And I think he's quite energised by the opportunity to try and sort of step into that, lean into it. But, you know, she's rude about Ed Miliband. She's quite rude about Donald Trump, interestingly. Sort of a bit of differentiation from Nigel Farage. That's pretty rude about Farage. Very rude about Ed Miliband. And, you know, most politicians, you know, while we've got Burnham sort of desperately trying to be the bloke everyone wants to have a pint with, Kemi is really pushing hard into this I'm the new Maggie Thatcher approach, which is, you know, say what you think and get on with it. So, yes. No, no, no. To welfare. Speaker 3 (3:21) And in terms of that clear blue water, Liam, it does seem that going in, she's very keen to talk about the worsening economic situation. Lots of the fiscal kind of indicators flashing red at the moment. Do you think that's going to be the big theme of the conference, looking at the economy? Speaker 1 (3:34) Yeah, say what you mean and mean what you say. I think a lot of the British public, a lot of the silent majority are... Showing my age, that's a sort of 1992 word, isn't it? From the spiral of silence years, the 92 election, of course, when lots of people said they'd vote Labour but voted Tory. I think the silent majority still holds across the UK electorate. I think people want... plain speaking, and she is presenting plain speaking. About 30 % of all universal credit claimants are 25 to 34 year olds. Of course, that doesn't mean they're out of work, but disproportionately, younger people are claiming PIP, certainly when it comes to mental health conditions. And then you've got the NEETs on top of that, who of course, topped a million, not in education, employment, or training. I think both the Conservative Party and reform have realised that they're not going to get anywhere with the electorate, at least the parts of the electorate that they need to attract. by making ever more unrealistic spending promises to the electorate. That's what opposition parties usually do. They try and outdo each other in terms of spending promises. You've now got the two main parties on the right competing in terms of fiscal prudence. The Tories came up with their £23 billion of annual welfare cuts within five years. And then that was Helen Waitley, their shadow work and pension secretary. And then the reforms, quote, shadow chancellor, Rob Jenrick. announced at their party conference £51 billion worth of welfare cuts. Now, these aren't, you know, obviously these numbers are difficult to prove or disprove, but the work behind each of them, and I've looked at the