BOMBSHELL POLL: NYT/Siena Finds a Stunning Shift in Red America

Bulwark Takes

Catherine Rampell and Bill Kristol dissect a bombshell New York Times/Siena poll revealing a surprising Democratic surge across traditionally Republican states including Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. They attribute

Key takeaways

• Donald Trump's approval has dropped from roughly 50% to 37%, representing over a quarter of his 2024 voters defecting or staying home.
• The NYT/Siena poll shows Democrats leading in Texas and Alaska, holding an edge in Ohio, with Iowa and Kansas effectively tied.

Main topics

• NYT/Siena midterm polling
• Donald Trump's declining approval and rural erosion

Notable quotes

"It's a wave, and this is what waves look like. And I've been through a couple of them."

Conclusion

The episode underscores how economic grievances and candidate quality are overriding traditional

Transcript preview

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I'm Catherine Rampell, economics editor here at The Bulwark, joined by my friend and colleague woke Bill Kristol to talk all about the gigantic New York Times Siena poll that came out, this bombshell poll. For those listening, the New York Times Siena poll is one of the most accurate and highly respected polls in this business. So we got some really bombshell information about the potential blue wave or blue tsunami that is coming. I just did want to do a brief plug for Receipts. That's my new podcast. You can get it on Spotify, YouTube, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. The most recent episode was with our other colleague, JVL. A great episode in which you will learn which era of German history the Trump administration actually resembles. So a little tidbit for you there, but you can get it again wherever you listen to your podcasts. Bill, let's talk about this new poll, this crazy new poll. The Times says Democrats lead among likely voters in the Senate races in Texas and Alaska, two states that consistently vote Republican, the polls found. They have an edge. in Ohio, which has been tilting rightward for years. Republicans have a slim edge in Iowa. And Democrats are neck and neck with Republicans in Kansas, which has not voted for a Democratic senator since 1932. Bill, what are your biggest takeaways from this new data we got? Speaker 2 (2:31) It's a wave, and this is what waves look like. And I've been through a couple of them. And, you know, everyone's like, whoa, that state, they told me that state was reliable and then or that district. And the whole point of a wave is it doesn't replicate a, quote, normal election, whether an off year or presidential one. Basically, for the Democrats to win the Senate, everyone thought they might pick up a seat or two. But to get to 51 or 52, they basically need three of the four that were considered rich states, but not crazy. Texas, Ohio, Alaska. and Iowa. Alaska and Texas are plus six, Ohio plus three, Iowa minus one, so basically even. And then Kansas, which I thought for a long time actually would be as competitive as Iowa's, even. Probably if Democrats win three of those, they win the Senate. Now, to be clear, you know, there's margin of error. People shouldn't overdo it. I've seen some commentary. You see this all the time, too, online. Oh, my God, can you believe Maine's minus two and the southern states plus three? I mean, this is why there is a margin of error. I mean, you really can't over, you know. do these things. That's why you should look at averages of polls and so forth and trends among polls. But the main thing to say is, if this were just some outlier, you'd think, I don't know, maybe they're just off and they're sampling or they're waiting. But we have a huge number of national polls that are consistent with this. The generic's been opening up. Could it be Equus as high as plus 12 this week? And that's a respected pollster too. And certainly Trump's approval, which is the key thing in an off-year election. I mean, people haven't really internalized, I think, quite as much as they might. What a drop from, let's say, 50 percent, which is basically election day of 24 to 37 percent or so. That's a very big drop. Think about it for a minute. Right. 13 percent of 50 was your math. But that's more than a quarter of the voters of his voters deserting him. Now, not all those voters are going to vote Democratic, obviously. Some will stick with a Republican member of Congress or senator because they still like the Republican Party better. Some will go will switch to check Trump. Some will stay home. If you're working with a 13 percent drop, the Democrats can pick up seven, eight, 10 percent of that drop. You get numbers like this. Speaker 4 (4:28) Obviously, Donald Trump, major driver in all of this. I would argue that candidate quality matters, at least in some of these races. When we look at the polling as well, like Texas, right, Texas. We never thought would go blue. At least there have been a few times when the Democrats in Texas got their hopes up and then had them dashed with Beto and others. And so I think that the expectations had been relatively low that that could happen. And yet here we have in this New York Times-Santa Paul, Tallarico is at 51 percent. Paxton is at 45 percent. There was reporting from The Times, I believe, that. Republicans are pulling their money out of North Carolina to give it elsewhere, to give it to places like Kansas as well. Republicans are having to double down and safeguard places that they could have once taken for granted. In Texas, like I mentioned, I think candidate quality is a big issue here, right? You have Ken Paxton, who is notoriously corrupt, who was impeached by Republicans in his state, whose wife divorced him. last year for biblical reasons. You know, he's still in the running, but certainly that is not helping him in addition to the Trump albatross that is around his neck and basically the entire ticket around the country. Speaker 2 (5:49) Democrats had their hopes crushed so many times, especially in Texas, but it's true in other states too. They all loved Beto in 2018 and he lost by a couple of points, two and a half, I can't remember, to Ted Cruz. But if you think about it for a minute, Trump is probably... 10 points less popular in Texas than he was in 2018. Well, he certainly is nationally. And I suspect in Texas, he was above 50 in 2018. In fact, I think, I believe he was in the exit polls on election day. And now I bet he's below 50. And as you say, Paxton's a worse candidate than Ted Cruz. And Tallarico's probably a better candidate than Beto. And Beto's a talented guy, but Tallarico probably has a slightly bigger appeal to independents and some non-Trump Republicans. Democrats have to get over there. Historic disappointment, Iowa was like a nightmare because in 2024, Seltzer, Ann Seltzer found that Harris was going to beat Trump in Iowa. And then two days later, you know, Trump crushed her. So I was like, oh my