American Power Extra: Trump, Xi and the Race to Control the Future
American Power
Chad Scott examines the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24th, analyzing its limited potential for breakthroughs amid escalating U.S.-C
Key takeaways
- The summit is unlikely to produce major breakthroughs due to time constraints and deep structural disagreements.
- Trade negotiations on $30 billion in reciprocal tariffs show progress but remain unresolved.
Main topics
- Trump-Xi Summit Preparations
- Trade Ceasefire Renewal
Notable quotes
"The immediate objective of both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump is to just keep the competition inside some sort of boundary."
Conclusion
The September 24th summit is less about transformation and more about maintai
Transcript preview
Speaker 1 (0:02) This is your host, Nat Towson. You're listening to an American Power Extra, a bonus episode with one of our experts designed to go deeper into the energy, military and geopolitical stories driving the news. If you're looking for more context, more history and a better understanding of the forces shaping global events, you're in the right place. Take it away, Chad. Speaker 2 (0:24) So Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are supposed to meet at the White House on September 24th. That is assuming Xi Jinping actually shows up because he left India early due to health concerns. So those health concerns could extend into what would become the summit with Donald Trump in Washington. He may not end up showing up. Nonetheless, if you're expecting some massive breakthrough between the United States and China, you probably need to lower your expectations, mainly because this upcoming meeting looks less like a reset of U.S.-China relations and more like an attempt to just keep the relationship from breaking down further. Trump and Xi already met in Beijing back in May of this year. That meeting produced what was called constructive strategic stability. Both countries announced plans for a U.S.-China board of trade as well as a board of investment. China made commitments involving American agricultural products and aircraft. Both governments said they agreed that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon. So I guess the question is, where are we at with those goals from May as of right now? While the overarching strategy of constructive strategic stability has held in the narrow sense, in that the relationship has not fallen back into uncontrolled tariff escalation or a breakdown in leader-level contact, but the broader Chinese-U.S. rivalry has not eased much. Trade restrictions, rare earth tensions, AI controls, Taiwan, and Iran all remain active disputes. When it comes to the Board of Trade, that may be where we've seen the most tangible progress. The two sides are negotiating reciprocal tariff reductions on about $30 billion worth of goods from each side. China has said they want a deal on these tariffs earlier rather than later, and the U.S. agrees, but apparently there are still some disagreements on minor issues within the framework here. So the negotiations are happening, but the board is still just in this negotiation stage. But like I said, This is the one area that has seen the most progress because the other board, the board of investment, it's much less developed. In fact, there really is no evidence that this has become a functioning investment mechanism at all because there has been no news or developments based on the guidelines that were set from the May summit. So the trade board has obviously moved further along down the road than this so-called investment board, which has seen exactly zero investments. Now next we have agriculture. This is moving, but China still has a lot left to buy. Beijing committed in May to at least $17 billion per year in non-soy U.S. agriculture products through 2028, while maintaining 25 million metric tons annually of soybean purchases. China's total purchases are about half of that 25 million ton annual target, so the commitment is being implemented, but has not yet been completed. There is still a time, obviously, by the end of the year, though, so we'll have to see where that goes. Next, you have the Boeing deal. This is probably the weakest commercial commitment that came out of the May summit. Back then, the deal involved 200 Boeing aircraft, but by July, negotiations had stalled because Beijing wanted long-term guarantees that Washington would not later cut off access to engine parts, maintenance, or other support. And because of those concerns, the deal has been described as falling apart. Now, next, we have Iran and nuclear weapons. Obviously, the broad diplomatic position on Iran not getting a nuclear weapon is still there. But the U.S. and China are certainly not aligned on how to handle Iran. Back in May, both sides said Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon. Recently, Beijing called for Washington and Tehran to return to the June interim agreement, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and resume negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. is... pressing China over its financial relationship with Iran. So there are fundamental discrepancies in how each country wants to deal with Iran. And this is going to impact this upcoming summit. Now, let's look ahead to that summit that is supposed to take place on September 24th. Xi Jinping is apparently planning to only be at the White House for about a day. One day of meetings and then he's not expected to stay for the United Nations General Assembly meeting. So this is honestly not looking like a several day summit with detailed negotiations as was originally expected or what we saw in China. It's almost like Xi decided to give a nod to Trump inviting him. Speaker 1 (4:48) But it's basically him just showing Speaker 2 (4:49) up late and then leaving early just to say he made the trip simply because he didn't want to offend Trump and his invite back when Trump was in Beijing back in May. Now, maybe Xi knows something that we don't know in that he is not interested in anything Trump has to offer as of right now and just wants to keep the status quo in place. And because of the minimal time the two leaders are going to spend with each other, there's really not going to be a ton of work being done by them. Most of the difficult work has to happen before Trump and Xi ever sit down. Some of that work is happening right now. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Leifong in New York this weekend for what could basically be the final major negotiating session before Trump and Xi meet. U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer is expected to join in that meeting. But China and the U.S. have several major disputes to work through on things I just mentioned, like the rare earths AI and the broader trade ceasefire. The issue is that... problems between China and the United States are getting larger while the potential agreements coming out of the summit are getting smaller. And with all of those things I mentioned before sitting on the table, there's simply no way you're going to be able to solve all of that in a one-day session. But if they're not going to really solve for a whole lot, what should we even be watching for in this summit? Well, let's start with trade, because trade is probably the easiest place for Trump and Xi to walk away with something they can both announce to their countries. And the foundations of a lot of their trade discussions go back to October 30th of 2025, when Trump and Xi met in Busan, South Korea. Both of them made an agreement that basically created this current so-called trade ceasefire where the spiraling trade war between China and the United States cooled off because the U.S. backed off on some of its tariffs and technology restrictions while China suspended some of its restrictions involving rare earths and other critical materials. But we're seemingly renegotiating that truce again as there is disagreement over how long this truce should continue. China reportedly wants an extension covering the remainder of Trump's term. Basically,