Saudi Arabia’s Houthi Problem

All Things Policy

The episode explores the escalating military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. It examines how the Houthis have

Key takeaways

• The Houthis have gained control over critical strategic points including the Mu'ahhan and Hanish Islands in the Red Sea.
• Despite being a massive arms importer, Saudi Arabia lacks the ground-warfare capabilities necessary to defeat battle-hardened Houthi insurgents.

Main topics

• Saudi-Hottui military escalation
• Geopolitics of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb

Notable quotes

The theatre of this West Asia conflict now seems to have expanded.

Conclusion

The episode concludes that without a unified diplomatic or naval coali

Transcript preview

Speaker 2 (0:03) Welcome to All Things Policy, a daily podcast by the Takshashila Institution. We are a bunch of policy nerds based in Bengaluru, and we like bringing fresh perspectives to Indian affairs and Indian perspectives to global affairs. So grab a cup of coffee, sit back and join us for today's chat. Speaker 1 (0:28) Welcome to All Things Policy. I'm Aishwarya, researcher with the Geostrategy Programme at the Takshashila Institution and your host for today. I've been watching the developments in West Asia from the gallery and the theatre of this West Asia conflict now seems to have expanded. Well, not seems. It has expanded to the Arabian Peninsula with a significant military escalation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, northern Yemen to be specific. This conflict tied directly to the broader standoff between Iran, the U.S. and Israel has sort of reignited the longstanding border conflict. To help us see us through these updates, I have Raja Kartikeya with me, who's not just Takshashila's in-house expert on West Asia, but one of the brightest minds on the region. Glad to have this conversation with you on Record, Raja. Speaker 3 (1:22) Thank you. Thank you, Aishwarya. Speaker 1 (1:25) So I will very quickly attempt to bring everyone on the same page before I move forward with this conversation. What we know is the Iran-backed Houthis have reportedly, well, it has targeted Riyadh with ballistic missiles. And Saudi Arabia finds itself alone in this with U.S. President Donald Trump turning down Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's request to intervene. The MECA pact still lacks legal and institutional foundation. It's still a very new pact. And despite all its capital, Saudi Arabia seems to be pushed into a corner, or so is my reading. But Raja, before we get into the current conflict, if you could briefly take us back in history and explain the crux of this entire. Saudi-Houthi conflict and what are the central political security issues that have kept this conflict going on for so long now? Speaker 3 (2:26) Thanks, Ashwarya. Yemen is a very important country. Its location at the entrance to the Red Sea makes it a very vital geopolitical, in fact, if I may say, even chessboard. And it has been like a chessboard for world powers for a long time. Yemen was originally two countries, North and South Yemen, that unified. after years of conflict around 1990. But in 2011, it was under authoritarian rule, and after the Arab Spring in 2011, the then dictator was pushed out. There was a national dialogue under the aegis of the United Nations, and a deal was almost made. But then the deal fell apart in 2014, when one of the factions... among the people who made the deal felt that the others and in particular the outgoing government's loyalists were not keeping the terms of the deal. And this faction was the Ansarallah or the Houthis. The Houthis actually are from the Zaidi. Speaker 3 (3:50) Shia community and they are an ethnic, you could say an ethno-religious community of Yemen. They're not just a political party, but they are very much an entire community. So the standard ways of dealing with political faction don't, or let's say an insurgent group, don't really work with them because there are areas in which... their families live, their communities have lived for centuries, and therefore in those areas they are in complete control, near complete control. So since then, Saudi Arabia and the UAE came out in support of the outgoing government. And they said, okay, look, this is the UN-recognized government and we're going to shelter it. And that's how then President Hadi moved to Riyadh. And in his support, Saudi Arabia carried out an aerial campaign in... Yemen against the Houthis. This was the war that started in 2015 and did not have a really good resolution. I mean, it certainly did not lead to a great victory for neither the Saudi Saudis nor for the Houthis. Somewhere along the way, the Saudis and UAE fell apart. They started supporting different factions on the ground. And in 2022, the Southeast went for a ceasefire with the Houthis. That ceasefire held. It held until 13th July this year, when a Houthi delegation, which was returning from the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran, was basically inhibited from landing in Sana'a. by a Saudi airstrike. And the Saudis said that this plane was carrying weapons that had been given by the Iranians to the Houthis. And after this, the Houthis retaliated. They launched a ballistic missile on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia responded. And since then, it's been tit for tat. In fact, now the Houthi attacks have become bolder and bolder. Initially, they were in towns along the Red Sea coast, like Abha, Jisran. But now they have actually... Speaker 1 (6:28) They've reached Riyadh now. Speaker 3 (6:29) Riyadh, actually. They actually hit Riyadh airport and somewhere along the way, over the past week and week and a half, the fog of war even has set in. And the Saudis accused the Houthis of launching a drone towards Mecca itself. It had been, you know, apparently... No, not. But the Houthis denied it. So we just don't know anymore. But what we do know now is this, that as things stand, the Houthis have made some gains, especially along the Red Sea coast. We are facing some resistance from the erstwhile government forces, or shall we say the UN-recognized government forces, that is led by Rashid-e-Lalimi and which are backed by Saudi Arabia. particularly in the area around Altai. But that's where they're facing resistance. But where the Houthis have done really well, in a way, surprisingly, in fact, in a way, is in the islands on the Red Sea itself. So now they have taken over an island called Mu'ahhan on the Bab-el-Mandab and another group of islands about 160 kilometers north called Hanish Islands. So they are effectively... in control of the mouth of the Red Sea at this point. Speaker 1 (7:47) I want to pick up on what you said, right? Like, we are all aware that Saudi Arabia has far greater financial resources, military capabilities, and also state capacity than the Houthis, who are essentially non-state actors with some Iranian backing. I wouldn't even call them proxies of Iran, like, say, the Hamas or Hezbollah. Yet the conflict looks very much tilted in Houthis' favour. And what is proving to be so difficult for Riyadh? Speaker 3 (8:18) Well, we are some in Saudi Arabia has over the years bought hundreds of billions of dollars of equipment from the West and particularly from the U.S. But these purchases were largely in a way of keeping the U.S. security umbrella in the region. They were not necessarily because they had troops that were ready